Geelong Cats’ premiership hopes are on a knife-edge after yet another loss this weekend. And while it would be wrong to write them off just yet, they seem to be only hanging in there by a thread.
The Cats’ latest loss, a 14-point defeat by the fourth-placed Western Bulldogs, means Geelong have lost four of their last eight matches.
And while they are assured of a second place finish on the AFL ladder, question marks remain about how far they can go in September.
I eagerly took in the Cats-Bulldogs clash on Friday evening, undecided about Geelong but interested to see where they were at.
But after the first half of footy, that perception had changed.
The Bulldogs were the better side in the opening half and deservedly took a 19-point lead into the long break. It could have been more for the Bulldogs too, having had almost double Geelong’s scoring shots, with 19 to 10.
Where Geelong was being beaten was getting numbers to the ball. And essentially getting first use of the footy and winning loose ball contests.
The Cats have been a dominant side for the last few years and their players have without doubt got used to winning loose ball contests.
But when that stops happening, suddenly the players who’ve run on for the next kick, find themselves out of position and without an opponent. If possession changes, that’s a big problem.
On Channel 7’s coverage of the game, Geelong coach Mark Thompson admitted in an interview just prior to the third quarter bounce down that winning these contests would be the focus for the rest of the game.
And indeed, Geelong mounted a big eye-opening fightback in the third quarter, kicking six goals to three, to take a three-point lead into the final term.
But after all that effort, the Cats couldn’t sustain it and the Bulldogs did enough to get on top again and win the game in the fourth quarter.
Winning the loose ball contests though, is a crucial point and you’ve got to wonder about Geelong’s fluctuation in this department.
A decent argument is injuries to key players means Geelong are fielding teams with some players who aren’t up to the level to win these contests consistently.
But guns like Jimmy Bartel, Gary Ablett, Max Rooke and Joel Selwood are still out there on the park fighting hard for the footy.
Perhaps a better point is after a couple of years being at the top the Geelong players are beginning to feel the pinch physically.
It’s no coincidence injuries have crept into the Cats team this season after long and intense campaigns in 2007 and 2008.
Key pair Paul Chapman and Jimmy Bartel are the obvious examples of players struggling with niggles and fitness, yet they are still being put on the park, despite not being one hundred percent fit.
And it is a problem the West Coast Eagles unsuccessfully dealt with in 2007 (remember a barely half-fit Chris Judd), going out of that finals series with successive losses, after competing in the previous two Grand Finals.
Cats fans may take comfort and optimism in the fact they’ve got a long list of players who could potentially soon return from injury to bolster their side such as Steve Johnson, Tom Harley and James Kelly.
But they shouldn’t be under the illusion that their injury list will magically disappear. The players have played a lot of footy in the last few years and it’s clearly taking it’s toll.
Friday’s match was a clear example of those physical problems (as it’s not just those on the injury list), with the Cats unable to sustain an effort on being first to the footy. The Bulldogs, fresher and with more at stake, beat them in that department.
But Geelong’s third quarter performance is where they can take some joy. When the Cats made a concerted and focused effort to win the footy, they got on top. But it’s about whether they can sustain that, so some more fresh bodies would aid that.
Chapman, who spent most of Friday’s game on the bench after experiencing hamstring tightness, is a key at winning these contests and his fitness will undoubtedly be crucial for the Cats going forward.
They are clearly struggling, but like a champion should, they are hanging in there.
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