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There are three reasons why I believe the NRL may eventually draw even with, and even surpass, the AFL in popularity: they are Australian population projections, the geographic history of Australia’s football codes, and New Zealand.
I’m not predicting this to happen any time soon. It will probably take up to 20 years or even more.
Before I go into these three points in a more detail, allow me to give my views on why the AFL currently enjoys its position as the number one football code in Australia.
Australian Rules has been historically a game played in Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania, while rugby league has been historically played in NSW and Qld.
Going by the Australian Bureau of Statistic state populations at the end of the March Quarter 2009, the current population of the four AFL states combined gives you 9,746,900 people, while the current population of the two NRL states combined gives you 11,456,900.
(I have not included the territories as they don’t have a dominant code and have comparatively small populations).
With this kind of population supremacy, why is the NRL not already ahead of the AFL? The answer is the AFL’s huge lead in expansion, which has been created by it’s far superior leadership model.
The AFL has complete dominance over the NRL in WA, SA and Tasmania, while having near dominance in Victoria with the NRL’s Melbourne Storm being the only NRL team in AFL territory and having been around for only 11 years.
Conversely, the NRL has yet to grant all its licenses in NSW and QLD, while the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions are well established and supported and have already been in Sydney and Brisbane/Gold Coast for 27 and 22 years respectively.
The clear lead in expansion is not the only advantage that the AFL currently enjoys.
The AFL earned $780m from its last TV broadcast deal and the NRL received only $550m.
The extra $230m has allowed the AFL to have aggressive marketing and junior development campaigns in NSW and QLD and has allowed it to fund the hugely expensive task of further increasing its expansion lead with new teams going into Western Sydney and the Gold Coast.
Most, if not all of this, can be put down to the AFL being run by the excellent leadership model of an independent commission. The gap between the codes’ leadership is pronounced and has been for years.
This has been the most important factor in the AFL’s domination.
If the AFL had a 16 year head start with expansion, it has at least a 24 year lead with its leadership model. The AFL got its independent commission in 1985, while the NRL is hoping to have one finally up and running by next year.
Even if the AFL only had the advantage of its independent commission’s leadership over rugby league’s in-house fighting between the ARL, NSWRL, CRL, QRL and the clubs themselves, it would have already been significant.
But rugby league has had to endure the Super League war and News Ltd, which has greatly held back the game while the AFL has gone from strength to strength.
Rupert Murdoch’s attempt to buy rugby league for his Pay TV network and the damage this has done to rugby league over the last 14 years can not be overstated and would be an article in itself.
The two codes could hardly have had more contrasting direction from their leadership.
So if this is the state of the games now, how can rugby league hope to ever catch up?
This comes back to my 3 points which are listed below.
But firstly, for these 3 points to come into effect, rugby league will need to compete on a much more even playing field. And rugby league will finally get this with its own independent commission and its future TV broadcast deals.
Rugby league’s independent commission is reported to be based on the successful AFL and NFL models, and though teething problems should be expected, it will be an easier transition than the AFL had as the NRL can learn from the AFL and NFL’s previous initial mistakes and there will be little interference from the league community.
With the introduction of a second Friday night game on Channel Nine, the Monday night game on Foxtel, and success of the Gold Coast Titans, rugby league has had an increase in TV ratings in Australia and New Zealand over the last three years and has closed the gap on the AFL.
This means that never again will the AFL enjoy a $230 million advantage over the NRL, with future TV broadcast deals.
The NRL will be able to compete on a more even playing field in regards to marketing, junior development, expansion and the overall running of the game.
So here are the three points:
Point 1. Australia’s Population Projections.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics made population projections in June 2007 for all Australian States and territories for the year 2056.
NSW 10,200,000
Qld 8,700,000
Victoria 8,500,000
WA 4,300,000
SA 2,200,000
Tasmania 571,000
The projected population of the four AFL States combined now gives you 15,571,000 people, while the projected population of the two NRL states combined gives you 18,900,000.
The rugby league States’ current population is 1,710,000 more than the AFL States.
By 2056, it will be 3,329,000 more.
If you’re not that patient, using the same projections, in 20 years it will be 2,288,200 more.
These are significant numbers and I haven’t included any population figures from New Zealand (more on New Zealand later).
Despite the NRL having numerical supremacy in population, the AFL is currently the bigger code due to its superior expansion and bigger bank account.
But if the NRL, through similar leadership, has its own future expansion to rival the AFL and a more even purse to spend equivalent amounts on marketing and junior development, then how is the AFL supposed to remain dominate with such an increase in population in the rugby league heartland?
If it becomes a more even playing field, it simply comes down to weight of numbers. This is the most important point in this article.
It means if the AFL are to remain clear leaders, there will be more pressure on the AFL’s current and future expansion in Sydney, Brisbane, Western Sydney and the Gold Coast than there will be on future NRL expansion into the Central Coast, Central Qld, Wellington, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide (or wherever the independent commission decides to go).
Obviously if the AFL states were projected to close the gap or even pass the rugby league States’ populations in the future, I wouldn’t consider it possible for rugby league to catch the AFL.
Point 2. The football codes geographic history.
Even though there is room for growth for all football codes in all States and territories, it is a very safe bet to suggest Australian Rules will continue to dominate Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, and Tasmania and rugby league will continue to dominate NSW and Qld.
This is how it has been for over 100 years.
As already stated, the AFL is ahead due to its expansion being ahead of the NRL. Regardless of this, the current and future expansion plans and any amount of future junior development from both codes will not change the basic status quo formed over the last century.
The AFL still has plenty of room for growing the game, and the NRL has plenty more (due to currently being so far behind in expansion). But both codes can only go so far away from their own backyard.
Point 3. New Zealand.
One huge advantage the NRL has over the AFL is New Zealand.
Australian Rules can be a very fast flowing and exciting game, but Henry Ford himself could not sell Australia’s indigenous game to a New Zealander.
Rugby league, however, has been in New Zealand for over a century and the potential growth for the game there is enormous.
When State of Origin was about to play its first game in 1980, many in the rugby league community felt the concept was doomed as Queensland would not be able to compete.
There were enough Queenslanders playing in Sydney at the time to prove them wrong.
There has been as many Kiwis in the NRL as Queenslanders for a few years now and long gone are the days that New Zealand would compete against Australia for 50 minutes before fading to lose by twenty plus points.
Kiwi victories at the Tri Nations in 2006, World Cup in 2008, and an unlucky draw in the four nations game this week have shown that even with the perennial underdog tag, the Kiwis can compete with the Kangaroos.
This competitiveness will help rugby league in New Zealand because, if there is one thing Kiwis love to do, it is beat the Aussies at any sport.
After the next TV rights deal, there will be a huge increase in junior development and marketing for rugby league in Australia. New Zealand should expect the same.
The Warriors have been an excellent addition to the NRL. The Wellington Orcas may have lost to the Titans in the last NRL expansion bid, but it is highly likely they will be in the NRL at some point in the future.
While rugby will always be king in New Zealand, the Kiwis will play an increasingly bigger role in the future of Rugby League. Television ratings in New Zealand for Warriors and Orcas games as well as State of Origin and Test matches will be crucial.
(A side note: New Zealand’s population in 2006 was 4,184,600. By 2031 it is projected to be 5,416,400 and by 2056 to be 6,389,200).
So there are the three reasons why I believe rugby league can catch AFL.
Of course, I am not predicting the decline or even stagnation of the AFL, just big things for rugby league.
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