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Geelong's Harry Taylor (L) and Joel Selwood put pressure on Adam Cooney of the Western Bulldogs
Pre-season predictions are fraught with danger. I doubt there was anybody last year who didn’t have Hawthorn pencilled in for a top-two finish. Some of us even thought Richmond were on the verge of September action.
On many fronts, the expectation and the reality were worlds apart in 2009.
Even though some calls pay off, it is very easy to look silly by coming out and stating what will happen before a ball has been bounced.
But hey, where’s the fun in worrying about that?
Speculation is just another part of the warmer months for footy fans, so why not just live in the moment and just get it off your chest?
With that spirit in mind, here are a few fearless predictions for the year ahead. Hopefully they won’t look too bad looking back in 12 months, but footy’s a funny game. Feel free to add your own predictions afterwards.
The breakout stars…
Every year a handful of players “break out” and take their game to a new level. Some we see coming, some we don’t. Last year we saw it happen with Brisbane’s Mitch Clark, Adelaide’s Bernie Vince and the Bulldogs’ Shaun Higgins, to name a few.
After injury-ravaged second seasons, young guns like Richmond’s Trent Cotchin and Fremantle’s Rhys Palmer are prime candidates for breakout years – provided they stay on the park. Other young midfielders to watch include West Coast’s Chris Masten and the Bullies’ Callan Ward.
Up forward, Cyril Rioli from Hawthorn and Tom Hawkins from Geelong look like two much-hyped youngsters that will really start to deliver on their potential this year. Robbie Gray from Port is another to keep an eye on.
And even though you could say this last year, and the year before that, and maybe even the year before that, if perennially-injured key forwards Scott Gumbleton (Essendon) and Sean Rusling (Collingwood) actually manage to string a few games together, watch out.
The big storylines…
As the Gold Coast footy club move closer and closer to their AFL debut, they’ll continue to make the headlines. In fact, Karmichael Hunt might even become a walking headline once he returns to Australia. A lot of attention will be attracted if he lines up in the VFL side as expected.
There’ll also be a strong focus on which players switch to the new club and, more specifically, if a big name player takes the big money they’re offering. My tip for that player, however unoriginal it may be, is Gary Ablett.
The coaches mightn’t be in the news as much as last year, but one that will be under pressure is Fremantle’s Mark Harvey, the only coach (the outgoing Paul Roos aside) out of contract at year’s end. He’s got a horror draw to start the year – early losses are not good for men in his position.
The premiers…
As I’ve explored previously, a pack of seven sides are all making strong cases for premiership glory early on. Sides like Adelaide and Hawthorn, and to a lesser extent Brisbane, could put together good campaigns, although they aren’t at the top of too many lists just yet.
Geelong and St Kilda certainly are, yet they have managed to strangely mimic each other in the off-season. They both lost talent in trade week, they both have now gone through major off-field scandals (courtesy of Andrew Lovett and Mathew Stokes).
Of course both are still genuine contenders at this stage. But for the sake of narrowing it down, both have been up there for a while and, for mine, are finding it hard to shake the vulnerable tag.
The Western Bulldogs could be anything, which tells me their streak of comfortably making the top four yet admirably falling short of the grand final is going to end.
Sure, they’ve got Barry Hall, but that also now means that three of their best forwards – Jason Akermanis and Brad Johnson being the others – have a combined age of 99. I can see them lifting the premiership cup, but I can also see them falling apart.
That, for me, leaves Collingwood, if for no other reason than their downside doesn’t seem quite as bad as the other top four teams from last year. And their upside?
Well, they’ve corrected the biggest concern towards the end of last season, their midfield, by bringing in two fantastic new recruits, Darren Jolly and Luke Ball. It might just be enough to take them to a premiership.
Then again, September 25 is a long way away.