By Michael DiFabrizio
February 5th 2010 @ 6:35am
Fearless predictions for the 2010 AFL season
Geelong's Harry Taylor (L) and Joel Selwood put pressure on Adam Cooney of the Western Bulldogs
Pre-season predictions are fraught with danger. I doubt there was anybody last year who didn’t have Hawthorn pencilled in for a top-two finish. Some of us even thought Richmond were on the verge of September action.
On many fronts, the expectation and the reality were worlds apart in 2009.
Even though some calls pay off, it is very easy to look silly by coming out and stating what will happen before a ball has been bounced.
But hey, where’s the fun in worrying about that?
Speculation is just another part of the warmer months for footy fans, so why not just live in the moment and just get it off your chest?
With that spirit in mind, here are a few fearless predictions for the year ahead. Hopefully they won’t look too bad looking back in 12 months, but footy’s a funny game. Feel free to add your own predictions afterwards.
The breakout stars…
Every year a handful of players “break out” and take their game to a new level. Some we see coming, some we don’t. Last year we saw it happen with Brisbane’s Mitch Clark, Adelaide’s Bernie Vince and the Bulldogs’ Shaun Higgins, to name a few.
After injury-ravaged second seasons, young guns like Richmond’s Trent Cotchin and Fremantle’s Rhys Palmer are prime candidates for breakout years – provided they stay on the park. Other young midfielders to watch include West Coast’s Chris Masten and the Bullies’ Callan Ward.
Up forward, Cyril Rioli from Hawthorn and Tom Hawkins from Geelong look like two much-hyped youngsters that will really start to deliver on their potential this year. Robbie Gray from Port is another to keep an eye on.
And even though you could say this last year, and the year before that, and maybe even the year before that, if perennially-injured key forwards Scott Gumbleton (Essendon) and Sean Rusling (Collingwood) actually manage to string a few games together, watch out.
The big storylines…
As the Gold Coast footy club move closer and closer to their AFL debut, they’ll continue to make the headlines. In fact, Karmichael Hunt might even become a walking headline once he returns to Australia. A lot of attention will be attracted if he lines up in the VFL side as expected.
There’ll also be a strong focus on which players switch to the new club and, more specifically, if a big name player takes the big money they’re offering. My tip for that player, however unoriginal it may be, is Gary Ablett.
The coaches mightn’t be in the news as much as last year, but one that will be under pressure is Fremantle’s Mark Harvey, the only coach (the outgoing Paul Roos aside) out of contract at year’s end. He’s got a horror draw to start the year – early losses are not good for men in his position.
The premiers…
As I’ve explored previously, a pack of seven sides are all making strong cases for premiership glory early on. Sides like Adelaide and Hawthorn, and to a lesser extent Brisbane, could put together good campaigns, although they aren’t at the top of too many lists just yet.
Geelong and St Kilda certainly are, yet they have managed to strangely mimic each other in the off-season. They both lost talent in trade week, they both have now gone through major off-field scandals (courtesy of Andrew Lovett and Mathew Stokes).
Of course both are still genuine contenders at this stage. But for the sake of narrowing it down, both have been up there for a while and, for mine, are finding it hard to shake the vulnerable tag.
The Western Bulldogs could be anything, which tells me their streak of comfortably making the top four yet admirably falling short of the grand final is going to end.
Sure, they’ve got Barry Hall, but that also now means that three of their best forwards – Jason Akermanis and Brad Johnson being the others – have a combined age of 99. I can see them lifting the premiership cup, but I can also see them falling apart.
That, for me, leaves Collingwood, if for no other reason than their downside doesn’t seem quite as bad as the other top four teams from last year. And their upside?
Well, they’ve corrected the biggest concern towards the end of last season, their midfield, by bringing in two fantastic new recruits, Darren Jolly and Luke Ball. It might just be enough to take them to a premiership.
Then again, September 25 is a long way away.
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![Kersi Meher-Homji: How I nearly bowled Michael Clarke [watch video]](http://cdn0.theroar.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/michael-clarke-th.jpg "Was it midsummer night’s dream? No, it was winter, and certainly a day. But was it a dream, me bowling to ‘Pup’ Clarke, beating him twice with my slow off-spin and almost catching him twice off my bowling? The attached video confirms it was for real! This was at the launch of Vodafone Ashes 2010-11 sponsorship at [...]")
Redb said | February 5th 2010 @ 7:09am | Report comment
I agree there are probably 7 teams in contention this year.
Savvas Tzionis said | February 5th 2010 @ 8:16am | Report comment
I think this years season is the most anticipated for years.
Geelong…the reigning premiers and best performed team EVER (from a games won/lost perspective) over a 3 year period
St Kilda…. the second best team ever not to win a premiership (strangely, jsut one season earlier, Geelong from 2008 was the best team never to win)
Footscray… now or never with the acquisition of Barry Hall (how fortuitous were they that the one factor missing from their team, a big forward, just happened to be available!!)
Hawthorn, the big disappointment from last year…. with a couple of gun recruits….
Nto to mention the emergence of a Positive playing Adelaide last year (their transformation from a dour to exciting team in a matter of a fortnight was amazing!)
The Brisbane Bears…Fevola and Brown…. the best double act EVER!!
And perhaps even Collingwood…. they are awlays underestimated yet have delivered some pretty decent football under mick Malthouse.
I suspect the rest are jsut making up the numbers but with such excitement at the top level, who cares!!
Michael C said | February 5th 2010 @ 8:45am | Report comment
“who cares”……ah, that’s harsh Savvas, Redb and I care heaps about our Bombers and Rooboys respectively!!! We might surprise.
every team is at their own place in their ‘premiership window’ or stage of development,
Melbourne will be seeking to build a winning culture,
Freo bloody more debutants in 2009 than anyone else – they will be super keen to fast track their development,
The Eagles are quietly optimistic (from over here – whereas, back at home they’re bullish)
North could surprise a few – personally I’m very optimistic – new coach, new facilities, new more positive attacking game style, and almost a brand new midfield whereas last year, our midfield was in disarray 3 weeks before Rnd 1.
The Swans minus Jolly might not be that great – but, a new look forward line minus the ‘Hallodramas’ and with Goodes permanently station at CHF…..you just never know, they only need to win every SCG game to be in with a big chance,
the Bombers – couldn’t again have all their talls go down,
Port – look to be getting better organised throughout – including the big step of unifying as a single entity the Port Adelaide Magpies and the Port Power ‘clubs’,
really, only Richmond of the bottom group look to be lagging – but, they had their re-alignment of ambition and ability matrix happen last year on round 1, the year couldn’t go quick enough for them to start to restructure lists (on and off field). The Tiges at least should have managed their expectations for 2010.
and from the top bracket – expect at least one club to come crashing back to earth with a thud – -
Redb said | February 5th 2010 @ 10:08am | Report comment
The 7 in no particular order:
Geelong (albeit will slip)
Western Bulldogs (early favourite)
St Kilda (firm favourite)
Adelaide (on the rise)
Hawthorn (one the rebound)
Brisbane (on the surprise)
Collingwood (will slip)
Carlton to drop away
Essendon to hold or firm
West Coast to improve
Sydney to improve
Melb, Nth, Rich, Fre and Port to share the cellar but all improve in their competitiveness.
It’s bit early though, after 3 rounds we should have an idea.
Redb
Lazza said | February 5th 2010 @ 2:14pm | Report comment
I kind of have to agree with you there Redb. Gee that’s boring! Much better when we disagree on everything.
My Crows will probably come about 5th again but if you make the Finals then anything could happen. Who can ever forget 97-98? We’ve spent the last 12 years playing with pride and honesty, trying to be competitive every year and where exactly has that got us? No decent draft picks and no real chance to win another flag.
The draft was obviously a Victorian conspiracy designed to hold super clubs like the Crows back.
Michael C said | February 5th 2010 @ 8:15pm | Report comment
I HAD successfully forgotten ‘98 thankyou very much for mentioning the war……
grizzle grumble moan groan……..
Richard said | February 5th 2010 @ 8:20am | Report comment
Congratulations on your courage in putting predictions out there in writing at this time of the year. It’s all pure speculation and means nothing in the end I suppose, but for those of us starved of AFL news who will read anything, it provides welcome stimulation. I’m wondering how Brisbane will go with their new-look forward line and a stronger mid-field in place to deliver. Should be very interesting to watch in the early part of the season. But anyway, I like the way you’re thinking.
Lazza said | February 5th 2010 @ 1:37pm | Report comment
It means you will look like an ass in the end when all your predictions are wrong but fun to do anyway.
James said | February 5th 2010 @ 9:41am | Report comment
I can’t help but think Brisbane with Fev is gonna be hard to stop and is looking at a top four.
LK said | February 5th 2010 @ 9:53am | Report comment
Fearless predictions? You’ve tipped seven contenders and a “breakout” year from a guy who won the Rising Star award. Maybe I’m being harsh, but there is a reasonable history of at least two changes to the top 8 from the previous year, and one of the top 4 falling away, and one of the bottom four rising.
Michael C said | February 5th 2010 @ 10:43am | Report comment
Sad to say –
I’d suggest Essendon will be better –
without A.Lovett,
and with Hille (back fit) and Ryder going tandem,
but, nagging doubt – at their best in 2009, Scott Lucas had a purple patch of about 4-5 weeks. Redb – who WILL kick your goals this year????
Redb said | February 5th 2010 @ 12:22pm | Report comment
Hurley, Monfries, Neagle (if fit), Gumbleton (hopefully). Might be worth putting Ryder up forward to see how he goes now that Hille will be back.
Michael C said | February 5th 2010 @ 12:44pm | Report comment
so,
slim pickings then,
Essendon for bottom 4.
(if Neagle is in your group of ‘hopefuls’ re goal kickers)
Redb said | February 5th 2010 @ 1:32pm | Report comment
Monfries (25) kicked more goals than Lucas last year and Lloyd only kicked 35 goals.
Hurley is gun in the making and we have plenty of small forward type players who can chime in – keep dreaming
Michael DiFabrizio said | February 5th 2010 @ 1:18pm | Report comment
What about Mark Williams? Any expectations for him this year?
Redb said | February 5th 2010 @ 1:34pm | Report comment
no expectations but he is probably a 2-3 goal per game player if going well, so another option for sure.
Our goals were shared around last year, Lucas ineffectual for most of the year,(one good game against Carlton)
. Lloyd only got 35 goals.
Art Sapphire said | February 5th 2010 @ 2:27pm | Report comment
Well picked up Michael, his move has gone under the radar here. Even redb forgot to mention him.
I predict Essendon us to be giving the top 4 a nudge and to finish above Collingwood and Carlton.
Sven man said | February 5th 2010 @ 1:13pm | Report comment
I’m also tipping that 2010 is going to be an absolute cracker. I dont think Hall will be the saviour for the doggies. I personally think they’d probably be kicking themselves that they had already commited to Hall when Fev became available.
bever fever said | February 5th 2010 @ 4:06pm | Report comment
Well i am optomistic about the Dockers but should we make it to the finals, i will go off my trolley if the crowd cheer in appreciation if we lose. (Essendon in only final at subi)
For a club that promises much but delivers little, sells 40k memberships and turns a good profit, the sky is the limit.
It has been very hard to unite Sth and East WAFL fans and to this day many will not support the Dockers, should this happen the Dockers will be as powerful as WCE.
Dont want to swing this thread… but … we need a bigger ground or a third team here in the west.
tommy said | February 5th 2010 @ 5:44pm | Report comment
I very much share your hopes and sentiments about our beloved fremantle. however i would like to point out that we have also played melbourne in a final at subi. which we won earning a prelim final berth against sydney. big IF but can you imagine if it was west coast v fremantle in the 06 gf. WA would have been destroyed leading to the great steel depression of 07 in china. IF only.
but as you suggest- just you wait, our drum is beating louder and louder every day. I can already see mora, palmer, ibbo, hill billy, suban streaming down the subi centre delivering to god who is currently inhabiting the body of one M pavlova. Mayne and balla tearing up the forward 50. boughton and duffiel carrying it cooly out of defence. roberton staring and fyfe taking hangers all over the place. FFC premiers 2012, 2013,2014 the next footballing dynasty- you read it here first folks.
Michael C said | February 5th 2010 @ 8:11pm | Report comment
yep, it’s amazing when you hear the minor sports fans calling for a dedicated 25K or 30K rectangle stadium when what the city needs is either a 60K minimum AFL venue or a new club,
I’ve heard rumblings from Joondallup Mayor for a 3rd team – is that realistic? or would it be more likely down south?
bever fever said | February 6th 2010 @ 12:39am | Report comment
Would need a second ground, Joondalup Arena ATM would not work, a ground south would need to be around Mandurah/Bunbury, the area is growing but is their enough money around…. probably not.
The best answer is to build a bigger stadium, but is that going to happen, unless the WAFL has the major stake in the ground, that is not going to happen either. the government wants to own the ground, the WAFL does not want to give up its grip on the ground and the money it earns as it drives all WA football from top to bottom.
Who knows what will happen, a third team run out of a smaller ground would need a partner (cricket maybe ??) but around Mandurah/ Bunbury would probably get 15k crowds, maybe more, depending on marketing.
A third team out of Perth would need to differentiate themselves somehow from the Eagles/Dockers…… how would they do that, thats why a more regional team may work.
Springs said | February 5th 2010 @ 10:18pm | Report comment
Hmmm, Fearless Prediction?
1st= Essendon
Last= Collingwood
gazz said | February 6th 2010 @ 1:10pm | Report comment
West Coast for the top four. Hawks to miss the finals again!
anthony said | March 17th 2010 @ 12:25am | Report comment
WHO COULD POSSIBLY PICK A PREMIER THIS YEAR….IN MY OPINION THERE ARE 6 CLUBS THAT CAN WIN IT…. 1GEELONG. many mite predict that there premiership window is closed…they still hav the same players as they did last year…they r still gonna b a force 2 b reckoned with..they should finish in the top 4 and hav another serious crack at the flag… 2.STKILDA. they won 19 games in a row last season..they were nearly impossible 2 beat..they hav reilwoldt and kozi up front..a very very good midfield and a solid backline….they will b very hard 2 beat again..should finish top 2 and will obviously b a serious contender if not the front runner… 3.WESTERN BULLGOGS. many r predictin that this could b there year with big bad bustling bazza up front lol…they hav a very even team across the field they run and carry the ball betta then any team in the comp and score very heavily…should finsh top 2…but probably 3rd or 4th…they will b a serious contender very very very hard 2 beat… 4.COLLINGWOOD. they made it 2 the prelim final against the cats and got smashed…they fell away in the last month b4 they got knocked out…they picked up one of the best ruckman in the comp and another a grade midfielder…could they b the missin link 2 a collingwood premirship??…they should finish top 4 an hav a serious crack at the flag… 5.ADIELADE..they kicked into form at the rite time of the year last year but was just beaten from a last min goal against the pies in the semi final…they can score heavily they run the ball from half bak have tall options down forward..will b very hard 2 beat…should finish between 3rd and 6th… 6.HAWTHORN. they had injuries last year and could neva really got a consistant 22 on the park…if they get there best 22 on the park..they will b nearly unstoppable in my opinion…they hav a great backline..there midfield is awesome..they r hard at the ball and obviously they hav a great forward line…they could very will win it this year………………………………….. as for brisbane many r predictin they will with brown and fevola..not yet i dont think…is there enough room 4 them in the forward line….and there midfield and backline is still young…next year and in the next few years they should b a force 2 b reckoned with………….any one of the 6 teams i listed can win it they r all capable…they can all finish anywhere from 1st to 6th thats how even i reckon it will b…so im lookin forward 2 one of the most even competitive seasons eva…oh and by the way go pies!! lol