Over the past three seasons the Waratahs have been most successful in limiting opposition scoring and achieving a positive points spread by using Tom Carter at 12 and Rob Horne at 13.
From 2008 to 2010, four players have started at 12. Comparing them in terms of numbers of games in that position, average points scored by the Waratahs, points against and points difference we get:
Barnes: 9, 30.1, 22.0, 8.1.
Beale: 5, 21.6, 22.0, -0.4.
Carter: 24, 20.6, 15.0, 5.5.
Tahu: 3, 16.0, 16.7, -0.7.
The average points spread has been greatest with Berrick Barnes at inside centre, but the opposition was able to score points more freely than when Carter played in that position.
Over the same three years, five players have started at 13. The stats:
Carraro: 1, 18.0, 11.0, 7.0.
Carter: 8, 26.9, 23.0, 3.9.
Horne: 21, 21.9, 15.9, 6.0.
Jacobs: 7, 20.4, 17.3, 3.1.
Tahu: 4, 21.5, 17.5, 4.0.
As we might expect, when Horne is at 13 opposition scoring is most restricted.
The Waratahs have used nine different centre combinations yielding the following performance stats:
Barnes-Carter: 6, 29.8, 21.5, 8.3.
Barnes-Horne: 3, 30.7, 23.0, 7.7.
Beale-Carter: 2, 18.0, 27.5, -9.5.
Beale-Tahu: 3, 24.0, 18.3, 5.7.
Carter-Carraro: 1, 18.0, 11.0, 7.0.
Carter-Horne: 15, 21.3, 14.3, 7.0.
Carter-Jacobs: 7, 20.4, 17.3, 3.1.
Carter-Tahu: 1, 14.0, 15.0, -1.0.
Tahu-Horne: 3, 16.0, 16.7, -0.7.
Barnes with either Carter or Horne outside him has yielded the highest points spread, but hasn’t really contained opposition scoring.
By contrast, the pairing of Carter and Horne seems best able to create a defensive wall without restricting their team’s ability to score.
Containing the opposition is usually a determining factor in finals football. Putting Carter and Horne together also makes sense in view of the number of games they have played together.
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