While there were some very encouraging signs in the Wallabies’ performance against England in Perth, it is significant that the home side was not able to build on their 14 point lead at half-time and, in fact, lost the second half. This continues a worrying trend.
Last year, there was intense speculation over the causes of the poor performance of the Wallabies during the Deans era, but one issue that has not been raised is whether their training has been appropriate for the intense physical demands of modern international rugby.
One indication that something is seriously wrong is the fact that the team has very frequently squandered a first-half lead.
Of course, there are so many factors that can influence how a game plays out that not much can be read into the scores in a particular game. The effects of long distance travel or a country fielding an under-strength team can have a major impact on the pattern of scoring.
However, in contests between Australia and New Zealand, distance is not really a relevant factor and both nations always endeavour to select their strongest team, so these matches provide an ideal environment to search for consistent patterns evident over a number of matches.
Let’s look at the last ten matches played between these countries prior to Robbie Deans taking over as coach.
Australia is listed first with the first half scoreline, second half scoreline and overall result shown for each match:
15 Nov 03 13-7 W, 9-3 W, 22-10 W
17 Jul 04 0-3 L, 7-13 L, 7-16 L
7 Aug 04 12-12 D, 11-6 W, 23-18 W
13 Aug 05 13-3 W, 0-27 L, 13-30 L
3 Sep 05 5-20 L, 19-14 W, 24-34 L
8 Jul 06 7-14 L, 5-18 L, 12-32 L
29 Jul 06 6-10 L, 3-3 D, 9-13 L
19 Aug 06 20-11 W, 7-23 L, 27-34 L
30 Jun 07 6-15 L, 14-0 W, 20-15 W
21 Jul 07 9-9 D, 3-17 L, 12-26 L
It can be seen that the Wallabies won three of the first halves, drew two and lost five. They won four second halves, drew one and lost five. Overall they won three games and lost seven.
Now let’s look at the stats for the eight Wallabies-All Blacks games since Deans has taken over:
26 Jul 08 17-12 W, 17-7 W, 34-19 W
2 Aug 08 10-21 L, 0-18 L, 10-39 L
13 Sep 08 10-3 W, 14-25 L, 24-28 L
1 Nov 08 14-9 W, 0-10 L, 14-19 L
18 Jul 09 13-10 W, 3-12 L, 16-22 L
22 Aug 09 12-3 W, 6-16 L, 18-19 L
19 Sep 09 6-16 L, 0-17 L, 6-33 L
31 Oct 09 16-13 W, 3-19 L, 19-32 L
Here we see that the Wallabies won an impressive six out of eight first halves, but lost seven out of eight second halves and eight out of eight matches!
Once the Deans coaching team had settled in, like after the first Bledisloe match in July 2008, their team has lost every second half and every match.
This looks like something more than random chance.
The most likely culprit would seem to be inappropriate physical conditioning.
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