The standard cliché for each NRL season is that is the most competitive and evenly-contested yet, with the competition open to all comers. Carrying momentum into the back end of the regular season and finals series is crucial.
Never was this more apparent than in 2009, with the favoured St George-Illawarra Dragons fortunes evaporating in August, even as the Parramatta Eels surged towards a fairytale finals run.
A quick glance at the competition ladder confirms that in season 2010, the final stages of the season will be as fiercely contested and unpredictable as ever.
However, I want to take a slightly different tack.
Obviously there are a lot of variables in play which will determine the course of the back half of the season: difficulty of the run home, injuries, the bounce of the ball, form of key players.
Here I’ll focus on the latter, focusing specifically on perhaps the most influential players on the field: halfbacks and five-eighths.
A statistical ranking system which scores halves based on an equation weighing attacking stats, kicking game, defensive workload, defensive efficiency and errors reveals that many of the key halfbacks and five-eighths in the competition are well down on form compared to their performances over the 2010 season.
In particular, three five-eighths who starred in the 2009 season have to this year struggled to consistently replicate last year’s form: Benji Marshall, John Sutton and Jamie Soward.
All are from teams which were highly fancied coming into the 2010 season.
Ominously, despite the sometimes indifferent form of their star playmakers, each team is well placed heading into the vital final rounds.
In the case of Marshall and Sutton, the steady performances of Robert Lui and Chris Sandow have helped, with Lui far outperforming 2009 Tigers seven John Morris and Sandow well up on last year’s form.
For the Dragons, despite their handy position on the ladder, Soward’s less robust attacking form will be an ongoing concern for an outfit which needs to boost its penetration with ball in hand to rectify last year’s disappointing September performance.
On the other side of the coin, the top-ranked half for 2010 so far – Mitchell Pearce – has shown a marked improvement in form, helping the carry the Roosters to mid-table status.
Interestingly, despite the steady attacking and defensive form of former six, Braith Anasta, Rooster’s coach Brian Smith has sought to boost his team’s prospects by shifting former Canberra five-eighth Todd Carney back into the halves for the final stages of the season.
Other top performers, in order, are Cooper Cronk, Scott Prince and Luke Walsh.
The finals hopes of the Titans and Panthers likely to hinge heavily on whether the recent good form of their sevens can be sustained, particularly with their respective five-eighths struggling. Walsh in particular is an interesting case.
His excellent kicking game has him way out in front of all other halves for try assists in 2010, although his less convincing performance in terms of line break assists and his own running game means there are still question marks about whether the Panthers will have enough attacking polish in the pressure
games to be genuine contenders.
In fair less convincing form is Parramatta pair Kris Keating and Daniel Mortimer, with the Eels needing to look no further than its stuttering halves combination to explain a largely indifferent campaign so far in 2010.
Similarly, the lack of outright attacking quality in Bulldogs halves Kimmorley, Roberts and Green has led Canterbury coach Kevin Moore to take the nuclear option for the final stages of the year by selecting young ‘X factor’ Ben Barba in the problematic pivot slot.
Further north, the club level performances from Queensland stalwarts Jonathan Thurston and Darren Lockyer have been solid but unspectacular by their lofty standards.
Lockyer at least should get a chance to show off his big game credentials in September.
All things considered, with some coaches still searching for the best playmaking combinations and some superstar halves still with plenty of room to improve, the final stages of 2010 should be as engrossing as ever.
A finals series potentially involving names including Sutton, Sandow, Marshall, Lockyer, Pearce, Carney, Walsh and Prince could be one of the most exciting in recent NRL history – if somewhat poorer for the absence of Cooper Cronk and his superstar Storm teammates.
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