Tarkyn Lockyer (R) and Dale Thomas celebrate after a goal during the AFL Round 14 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the West Coast Eagles at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne. Slattery Images
History suggests it’s all over, the top eight has been decided and from here it’s only a matter of which order they’ll finish. Mathematically yes, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Essendon can all still make it, but in reality it’s highly unlikely.
Sydney’s upset loss to Richmond has kept the door slightly ajar for the Kangaroos though, and interestingly the two sides meet this weekend in a mini final for both.
The winner will probably be the team that secures eighth spot and my money is on the Swans.
Essendon officially bombed out on Saturday night with an embarrassing 84 point loss to Adelaide at AAMI Stadium. Injuries are part of the problem but by no means an excuse either.
Making matters worse the frustration seems to be showing on the field.
In an incident we don’t often see, Essendon captain Jobe Watson physically pushed teammate Henry Slattery for giving away a stupid 50 metre penalty and certain goal.
Now I personally don’t mind seeing this because in the heat of battle it shows they care, but perhaps it’s also a sign of a club ready to implode.
On talkback radio Essendon supporters were calling for blood and unfortunately for Matthew Knights it’s his head on the chopping block.
But Knights isn’t the only coach feeling the pressure, in fact by his own admission Port Adelaide coach Mark Williams admitted he might not even see out the year, let alone fulfil his contract next year as well.
With their season on the line, Port Adelaide didn’t even threaten an undermanned and injury savaged Fremantle at Subiaco on Saturday.
The Power now faces Collingwood, Adelaide, the Bulldogs, Hawthorn and St Kilda in the next five weeks and even the most profound optimist would agree it’s season over.
Fremantle on the other hand continue to defy the odds and push for a top four spot.
In years gone by the Dockers have fallen away despite being in a position to challenge, this year though maybe the failures of the past will be forgotten and a new chapter can be written?
Not helping their cause, the best football story of the year ended in tragedy when Michael Barlow went down with a broken leg in the last quarter. The Subiaco crowd was left stunned and shocked as the Brownlow medal fancy was stretchered from the field in a cruel twist to his debut season.
You have to wonder just how long Fremantle can keep producing and winning?
If the Dockers do stumble, another side might be able to sneak into the top four, and at this point in time, you’d be silly not to consider Hawthorn as a huge contender.
After that thrilling three point victory against the Bulldogs, a win against Geelong or St Kilda in the next three weeks will only validate that claim even further.
But if they don’t end up making it, can the Hawks, the Bulldogs or even Carlton win it from outside the top four?
History suggests they can’t and even Brad Sewell at Hawthorn recovery on Saturday morning admitted as much. Regardless, all three are capable of beating any team on their day. Which can stand up in a final though remains to be seen.
At the top of the table Collingwood, St Kilda and Geelong are the clear stand-outs and between them will be battling it out for the top two spots.
I’m not sure how many would have predicted the Magpies would be swooping around a top two finish? Could this be the year they finally win it?
Either way, this season’s finals series looks like it will be one of the most evenly fought in many years.
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