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The defense of Robbie Deans and his coaching prowess is in full swing by Deans’ disciples, but how much of the blame (or credit) does he really deserve?
Over the past week, a number of Deans’ apologists have offered up their “reasons” to lay off the high profile coach and his mediocre record, the most absurd being that he is the victim of his own success by creating the All Black teams’ best players, who dismantled his team this past weekend.
The notion that the All Blacks benefited from some coaching nirvana by Deans between 2002-2007, rather than the Crusaders benefiting from their players being exposed to Test rugby is laughable. I take it these same people are also happy to hitch the All Blacks failures at the last two World Cups to Deans.
Somehow, I doubt they would be this consistent.
Call me old fashioned, but if you’re going to point to the decade of Crusaders dominance and give Robbie Deans credit for building Super Rugby’s first dynasty, then you must give him equal blame for the Wallabies’ sorry run under his stewardship.
Personally, I don’t think he has as much to do with either. I tend to think of Deans as the chief beneficiary of having an unprecedented talent pool at the Crusaders, not the architect of Dan Carter’s or Richie MaCaw’s abilities as players.
What is being revealed here is a little known but irrefutable truth, a truth that is so unpopular and so rejected by fans of all sport that I actually hesitate to write it.
Coaches are largely irrelevant in pro sports.
Sacrilege! Nonsense! Rubbish! Right?
Well, read on for the indisputable evidence of their immaterial impact on a sporting competitions outcome.
First, let me clarify my position. I am not saying that coaching doesn’t matter, nor am I saying that coaches have no impact on a sporting contest.
What I am saying is that this effect is habitually misread and overstated to the point that we irrationally hire and fire people in these positions when they are one of the least important factors determining a teams fortunes.
However important you perceive a rugby coach to be, there is one inescapable factor leveling the playing field – the other team has coaches, too. Damn good ones.
How much difference do you really think there is between Robbie Deans and Graham Henry? For Deans to even be a factor in the Aussies overcoming the All Blacks, you must think that he is not only superior to Graham Henry, but appreciably better.
The most likely scenario is that Graham Henry and Robbie Deans are about the same.
If Deans is a 9.5, then Henry is at least a 9.
If one is better than the other, then the difference is negligible, and when that negligible difference is compared to factors that actually do play a significant role, such as player talent, squad health, home field advantage, referees and the weather, this puts the coaches influence on the outcome into perspective.
Consider self-proclaimed clown coach, Peter de Villiers.
You would be hard pressed to find a fan or pundit who would accuse him of being on the same level as Deans, but check the record books.
At international level de Villiers has a 65 per cent winning percentage (21 Wins, 11 Losses), while Deans is at a 55 per cent winning percentage (19 wins, 14 losses and a draw).
I know whose record I’d rather have.
Now consider super coach Craig Bellamy of the Melbourne storm. How could such a great coach lay such a big egg at Origin level?
The answer?
Origin (like the Melbourne Storm) has no salary cap. And without a massive talent advantage on the playing field, his team was taken apart. It is the talent that decides the outcome of a match. This years’ State of Origin revealed that the emperor has no clothes.
Consider the 2004 Brumbies who took out the Super Rugby title despite their coach David Nucifora.
Nucifora lost control of his players at mid-season, forcing senior players to revolt over Nucifora’s game plans, and took control of the franchise. This team undoubtedly won the competition without an effective coach for the second half of the season.
If you ever needed proof of how much a coach matters, the 2004 Brumbies are it.
So Aussie fans, relax, take a pill, don’t lay awake at night trying to solve the Wallabies coaching dilemma leading into next years’ World Cup, because the outcome of next years’ World Cup will be decided by the men in the tracksuits.
Not the men in the suits.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.