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The Waratahs' Luke Burgess is tackled by Lions Wikus Van Heerden during their round 14 match at Sydney Football Staduim in Sydney, Saturday, May 21, 2011. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
The good news for Waratahs supporters is that in the week 14 round of Super Rugby, the embattled team consolidated its position in fifth place on the ladder. Associated with this is the fact that by playing efficient, enterprising and attractive rugby the Waratahs piled on 29 points and five tries in the first half of their match at the SFS against the Lions.
The bad new is that there are now three South African teams (the Stormers, Sharks, Bulls), three New Zealand teams (the Blues, Crusaders, Highlanders) to contest the six finals spots, with the two likely Australian sides (the Reds, Waratahs).
Eight into six doesn’t go. Moreover, after a brilliant first half the Waratahs lapsed back into their ‘ugly’ mode. They kicked a lot more and failed to score a further point in 40 minutes of play, or misplay.
Why did this happen?
My view is that the Waratahs are not aerobically fit. They tire badly when the game opens ups. There are selection decisions that prevent the team from playing expansive rugby for 80 minutes (no names, no pack drill).
The backs appear to have few set moves that do not involve kicking plays (again no names, no pack drill on why this is so).
There seems to be, also, a perverse view that it is not the duty of the team to entertain and enthrall their supporters. Winning is enough.
The poor crowd of 14,000 or so suggests that this belief doesn’t wash with the supporters, even diehard supporters.
The brilliant play in the first 40 minutes should have convinced the players and the coaches that this is the best method for the team. But after half-time, as if the team were in denial, they came out and kicked, and kicked, and kicked.
Even Phil Kearns was appalled.
He pointed out early on in the second half that the Waratahs had kicked 11 times in the first half (with three of the kicks leading to tries).
But in the first 10 minutes of the second half, the Waratahs kicked 8 times. ‘They were so good with the ball in hand in the first 40 minutes but now they’ve gone back to their kicking game,’ he lamented. Rod Kafer agreed with him about this pointless (to make a pun) kicking game. He described the kicking as ‘aimless.’
At the end of the match, with a 29 -12 lead, the Waratahs were given a penalty under their posts. Previously in the match Dean Mumm had delighted the supporters by turning down kickable penalties and going for a try. Now, though, with the supporters baying for just one long-range attack in the second half, Mumm allowed Daniel Halangahu to boot the ball into touch.
There were muted boos. The impression was left that the goodwill built up in the first 40 minutes was somewhat dissipated 40 minutes later.
Now for the eight-into-six-doesn’t-go problem.
The top team in each conference automatically goes through to the finals. It is hard to see how the Waratahs on 45 points can displace the Reds who are leading the competition (thanks to their 4-point bye) on 54 points.
The race in the other two conferences is wide open.
The Blues are leading the New Zealand conference on 50 points. They have a bye and an automatic 4 points in the coming round.
The Crusaders play the Reds. It was evident in their tenacious, thoughtful victory against the Chiefs at Napier that the loss, for the rest of the season, of their try-scoring, strike players, Sean Maitland and Israel Dagg, has taken the edge off the Crusaders. The Crusaders had to rely on a massive scrum, mid-field bombs and some adept goal-kicking and drop goal kicking from Daniel Carter to get a hard-earned victory.
The Crusaders did try to run the ball and they created some gaps but their make-shift wingers could not convert the break-outs into tries. Presumably Sonny Bill Williams will make a difference to the attack if he comes back against the Reds.
But last year at Suncorp Stadium, the Reds thrashed the Crusaders. They have the chance to repeat this victory. They are fresh from their bye and will be lifted by a huge crowd to take the points against a side that is carrying a lot of injuries and has had to play all its matches this season on the road.
No matter what happens to the Reds, though, they will stay on top of the competition, in an uncontested first place if they get any points against the Crusaders and first equal (with the Blues) if they don’t get any points.
The Waratahs, on the other hand, are in double jeopardy territory with their next two matches in South Africa. If they lose to the Sharks at the Shark Tank at Durban, they will drop out of the top six. This is a big ‘if’ for its also presumes that the Highlanders will defeat the Lions at Carisbrook. It could get worse for the Waratahs if the Bulls defeat the Cheetahs. The Waratahs play the Bulls at their bullpit in Pretoria in two weeks’ time.
These two games in South Africa, therefore, will probably decide the finals chances of all three teams. For the Waratahs, a win in both or either of these matches will impede the progress of one or two of the teams making a charge, like them, for a top six position.
In the past the Waratahs have won both games in South Africa. So they can win these games. They have one of the strongest squads (even with injuries) in the tournament. But they are playing two very tough South African sides, both of them with the finals glint in their eyes.
I don’t think that the Waratahs can play their ugly, kicking game and defeat these two teams. Morne Steyn, for instance, kicked 22 points for the Bulls for their win at Shark Park against the Sharks.
But will they be brave enough to chance their arm in South Africa as they did for 40 minutes against the Lions? Let’s hope so. In life and in rugby, fortune generally favours the brave.