Sunday’s UFC 131 card may be missing its biggest drawcard in Brock Lesnar, but the event still packs a punch.
Junior Dos Santos will now meet Shane Carwin in the main event, Kenny Florian will make his highly awaited featherweight debut against Diego Nunes, and Demian Maia will face off against Mark Munoz in a crucial middleweight bout.
Read on to preview the show’s top three fights as well as predictions on the rest of the card:
Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin
Diverticulitis intervened in the planned battle between the coaches of the 13th season of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’, but Dos Santos will still find himself fighting for a shot at the title against a man mountain. While Carwin bears similar dimensions to Lesnar his skill set differs in some key areas that Dos Santos will need to make a note of.
Against Lesnar, he had an opponent who didn’t like to get hit and that wilted under fire. In Carwin, he faces a far
more capable striker who showed in his fight with Gabriel Gonzaga that he can take it as well as give it. However, the change in opponent helps Dos Santos out in the speed department as he will definitely be quicker than Carwin.
This stat was up in the air in the original match-up and in a bout between two fighters who are prone to stopping fights with one punch, this speed advantage could make all the difference.
Another area of this fight that hasn’t really been spoken about is that of Carwin’s wrestling ability. Dos Santos has shown glimpses of good takedown defence in his UFC career so far against Roy Nelson and Gabriel Gonzaga but Carwin is a different animal entirely. We haven’t seen Dos Santos on his back so far in the UFC and things could get hairy for him if Carwin is to put him there.
Prediction: Personally, I feel you can break down this fight as much as possible but to me it all comes back the opening seconds of Carwin’s fight with Gabriel Gonzaga. That was the first and so far only bout we have seen of Carwin’s against a capable striker and Gonzaga quickly opened up the holes in his defence. If there’s one person you don’t want to have holes in your striking defence against, it’s Dos Santos. Dos Santos via KO in round one.
Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes
Behold! The amazing shrinking man! UFC 131’s co-main event will see Kenny Florian make his featherweight (66kg) debut. The same Kenny Florian that fought on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter at middleweight (84kg).
He has slowly made his way down the weight classes since then and will now meet the highly regarded, Diego Nunes. Provided the dramatic weight cut doesn’t drain Florian too much, he should prove to be a massive test for anyone in the division.
His opponent, Nunes (16-1), was steadily climbing the featherweight ranks in the WEC before making his UFC debut at UFC 125 where he notched the biggest win of his career by defeating former champion, Mike Brown via split decision.
Nunes is skilled at keeping the fight on the feet and using his kickboxing skills to outpoint his opponents. In Florian he may find a willing partner in the stand-up exchanges and this fight could very well come down to the better kickboxer.
Prediction: I like Florian in this bout provided the weight cut is not a factor. Nunes is fairly limited in his attacks, and I believe Florian will mix up his attack successfully and coast to a wide decision win. Florian via decision.
Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz
To me, this is one of the best stylistic match-ups in recent memory. Maia’s otherworldly ground game versus Munoz’s power punching wrestling game.
Unlike other fighters who rely solely on their jiu-jitsu, Maia possesses a fearlessness and a toughness that stops him from ever being out of the fight. These traits are aided by his remarkable guard pulling abilities. While Maia’s game is almost purely technique, Munoz’s is solely a power game. His crushing wrestling game is coupled with some of the most powerful ground and pound in the business today.
When these two face off it should result in a fascinating battle that is always on the verge of a finish.
Prediction: Munoz is still rather green in the sport so that could very well come back to haunt him in this bout, but the variable of Munoz’s house levelling power can’t be ignored. I’ll take Munoz to stun Maia midway through the second round and then quickly put an end to a fascinating bout shortly thereafter. Munoz via TKO in round two.
Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman
This heavyweight bout is really a battle of unknowns. Einemo possesses a high quality skill-set but he is surrounded by question marks due to his inactivity over the past few years. Herman on the other hand is one big question mark. You’re never sure what you are going to get with Herman who appears to have all the talent in the world but has a very careless approach to the game.
Prediction: You can say whatever you want about Herman but there is no doubting the man’s relaxed demeanour. This should aid him in his big show debut as he stops an overwhelmed Einemo in the first. Herman via first round TKO.
Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha
Rocha comes in as a late replacement for Mac Danzig and I’m not sure he’s quite prepared for what he is going to face. Cerrone has been putting all areas of his game together in recent fights and this should culminate in one almighty battering to open the pay-per-view.
Prediction: Cerrone will hurt Rocha early and finish him off on the ground shortly thereafter. Cerrone via TKO in round two.
Undercard:
Sam Stout vs. Yves Edwards – This will be an entertaining lightweight scrap that should go the full three rounds on the feet. I’ll take Edwards as he’s a little more free flowing. Edwards via decision.
Jesse Bongfeldt vs. Chris Weidman – Weidman is a high quality prospect and should finish off Bongfeldt pretty easily. Weidman via TKO in round one.
Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Mike Massenzio – At one point in time, Soszynski was a 250lbs. heavyweight while Massenzio has spend the majority of his time at middleweight. That and Soszynski’s superior skill-set will make this one painful night for Massenzio. Soszynski via submission in round one.
Nick Ring vs. James Head – Ring was pretty unimpressive at UFC 127 in February and I have a feeling he will remain so here against the unheralded Head. Head via decision.
Dustin Poirier vs. Jason Young – It looks more and more that Poirier’s victory over former top contender, Josh Grispi has more to do with Grispi being overrated than Poirier as a rising star but he should still have too much for Young here. Poirier via TKO in round one.
Joey Beltran vs. Aaron Rosa – Beltran has power and resilience but not much more. Rosa should be able to control this bout with his wrestling. Rosa via decision.
Michihiro Omigawa vs. Darren Elkins – Omigawa is still a relevant force in the featherweight division, Elkins is not. Omigawa via TKO in round two.
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