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Carlton coach Brett Ratten addresses his players during the AFL Round 16 match between the Western Bulldogs and the Carlton Blues at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne. Slattery Images
Brett Ratten has done enough to continue coaching Carlton next year and beyond. It was always silly to be judging his future on whether or not the Blues won a final this year, because there was always the sense that another year of limping into the eight – even if topped off with a finals win – would still be considered disappointing.
As it has turned out, the Blues have not limped into the eight. Ratten has got them to the point where they don’t need one result to justify whether or not they have improved.
Don’t get me wrong, Carlton should beat Essendon this weekend. Their form across the 2011 season suggests they are the better team and when you look at where the two teams are in their development, it’s the Blues that are further ahead.
But crazy things can happen in a game of footy.
Injuries happen, for example. What if Ratten has to deploy the sub early due to an injury and then has another player go down minutes later? Would that cost him his career?
It could happen, especially if the Blues gamble and play one or both of Michael Jamison and Matthew Kreuzer. Doing this could greatly improve their chances of winning, of course, but there’s also a chance it can backfire on them if these players aren’t at full fitness.
Upsets happen, too. The Bombers are a determined young outfit who have been taking big scalps all year. There’s a rivalry between the two teams that makes their encounters a bit unpredictable. Who knows what might happen?
As stated earlier, Carlton should win on Sunday. But circumstances may arise that would make it incredibly harsh to judge Ratten on this one game, which is why his team’s season as a whole should be looked at when discussing his future – and his team’s season has been pretty good.
Most of the year was spent sitting in the top four. 15 wins and a draw is a great return. Ratten moving Chris Yarran from forward to defence proved to be a masterstroke. Most importantly, a team filled with players not quite realising their potential has started to do exactly that.
Andrew Walker has gone from a five-goal player to a fifty-goal player in one season. Marc Murphy has joined teammate Chris Judd as one of the absolute A-grade midfielders of the comp. Mitch Robinson has shown plenty of improvement. Heath Scotland’s had a big year. Jamison was great prior to being injured.
The Blues are a vastly improved team this year and Ratten should be given his due credit.
The other coaching sub-plot of the finals appears to be the future of St Kilda’s Ross Lyon, who has been heavily backed with betting agencies to be the next coach of Melbourne. This follows reports of the Dees offering a huge five-year deal to switch clubs.
The first thing that has to be said here is kudos to Melbourne for trying not holding back in searching for the best candidate.
I wrote last month about the lack of quality among the experienced coaches putting their hands up, and it has to be said going for an untried coach does carry risks. Given what the Dees have just come out of, you can understand them not being too keen to take that approach again.
The alternative, as Garry Lyon seems to have discovered, is to go after experienced coaches that aren’t putting their hands up and offer them something they can’t refuse. (Al Clarkson was also reported to be offered a deal by the Dees just like Ross Lyon.)
It’s a smart approach. It may not pay off, but at least Melbourne aren’t letting the fear of striking out keep them from playing the game.
Mike Sheahan has speculated St Kilda may be open to bringing in a new coach, so you never know.
At the end of the day, clubs must ask themselves if the man leading them currently will be their next premiership coach. If they can’t honestly say yes, it’s time to move on.
Melbourne have already been through that. In coming weeks, it will be time for Carlton and St Kilda to ask the same question.