What to make of the second round of group games? Well, one thing is for sure, while some of the big teams are positioning themselves nicely, one big hitter laid a massive egg over the weekend.
Take nothing away from Ireland who were magnificent, their back row especially, who were terrific, physical and tenacious.
They covered every blade of grass, tackling and carrying strongly over and over.
Much of the credit has gone to the front row, and deservedly so, but for me the back row was equally responsible for handing my tournament favourites defeat.
So what went wrong with Australia?
For me there were three issues, the first being injuries. Moore, Pocock and Ioane missed this game and it really showed.
Palota-Nau is a fine player when fit, but clearly he is not. Couple that with a horror day at line-out time and you have big trouble.
Apart from Moore, this was the same Wallaby pack that held its own against a stronger scrummaging side in Italy, yet Cian Healy et al had their way with their opposite numbers.
Had Pocock been playing, would Sean O’Brien have been able to have such an impact? Unlikely. His responsibility would have been to secure the Irish ball and keep Pocock quiet. With McCalman at 7 for the Wallabies, he was freed up to wreak havoc.
Not much has been made of the absence of Ioane, a mistake. The threat he poses opposition defences keeps them honest. One of Quade Cooper’s favourite plays is to drift wide and flip an inside ball to Ioane on the burst.
In order to counter this, opposition defences, and back row in particular, must stay narrow, allowing more room for the likes of Beale and Ashley-Cooper out wide. Moving Ashley-Cooper to the wing allows opposition defences to take more risks in the 13 channel, knowing that Anthony Fainga’a is unlikely to punish them.
Then there was the level of performance. While this may sound obvious, in big games you need your big players to turn up.
How often, when it is most important, do the likes of Carter, Du Preez etc come to the fore? Almost always. Yet where were Quade Cooper, Rocky Elsom, Will Genia on Saturday night?
Third was game management. Coach Deans, in my book one of the finest coaches around, had a bad day. The game plan was not suited to the conditions or the opposition. More tellingly however, he waited far too long to make any changes.
The Australian back row was being played off the park, so why did it take so long to bring Palu and Higginbottom on? Palota-Nau was barely in the same postcode as play and couldn’t hit a barn door at line out time, why was Saia Fainga’a nailed to the pine?
When New Zealand played Japan, John Kirwan should have been ashamed of himself. The reward for his players who pushed France so hard? A seat in the stands while their second-string mates played in their country’s biggest game in years. Thanks coach.
Not only was is a travesty for the players concerned, Japan had one “chance” to make the quarterfinals, beat the All Blacks. So you have to play your strongest side. Well apparently John Kirwan doesn’t agree.
The All Blacks did what they do better than any other side – they hammered weaker opposition. I will reserve my judgement on their form for their true test may not come until the semi-finals, depending what mood the French are in at the weekend.
Never count the French out, especially in a one-off contest, but picking players out of position in key areas will surely come back to haunt them against New Zealand.
By the end of Georgia-England the score was where I expected it to be, but it certainly didn’t deserve to be that wide a margin. The Georgians were everything their game against Scotland showed them to be, strong, resolute, physical but limited. England made the fatal error of being dragged down to their level.
Matt Stevens, with an opportunity to nail down the loosehead spot for the rest of the tournament and beyond, had his worst game at club or international level since his return from the drug ban.
Dylan Hartley was dragged down to his bad ways of old, giving away silly penalties and engaging in unnecessary niggle. Lewis Moody, understandably eager to make an impact certainly did so, only not in a good way. He gave away penalties, and showed severe rustiness.
Fortunately for him he has 80 minutes against Romania coming up to blow away a few more of the cob webs.
In fact, I see the Romania game as in important one for England. Martin Johnson still doesn’t know his first choice combination in a variety of positions – front row, back row, 9/10 and 12/13.
They will win against Romania and by a significant margin, but more importantly they need to come away clear in their minds who they want playing in the crucial positions against Scotland, in their final game of the group stage, and beyond.
I mentioned in my article last week that Wales-Samoa was a potential upset, and even predicted a Samoa victory. I was nearly right. Full credit must go to Gatland, Warburton and their charges for picking themselves up after heartbreaking defeat to the Springboks the previous weekend.
In a very physical and tight tussle they pulled out a victory and will take a lot of pride from doing so. After Australia’s defeat to Ireland, the Welsh (and anyone in that side of the draw) must be thinking that they have a great chance to make the semis.
Again it was the Welsh forwards, in particular the back row and Alun Wyn-Jones who laid the foundations for the victory, by matching the Samoan physicality. I hope for their sake injuries to Hook and Lydiate do not prove to be serious, as they are key performers.
In general the standard of refereeing has improved, over the last week. There was, however, one example of schoolboy standard. How can Bryce Lawrence be standing in the 9/10 channel when Eoin Reddan is trying to set off an Irish attack?
Worse, when Reddan was forced to turn to his blindside he collided with the Wallaby captain, about 10 yards offside and knocked on. What should have happened? Irish scrum and an apology, failing that an Irish penalty for offside. What did Mr Lawrence decide? Scrum Australia. Poor to put it mildly.
The tournament is really highlighting the need for a good No. 7. Australia struggled at the breakdown without Pocock. England have struggled in both games without a recognised 7. Wales and South Africa have both prospered with good 7’s, as no doubt the All Blacks will with McCaw back on the park.
What to make of Scotland? I guess we find out more against Argentina; but they seem to have regressed from their warm-up games.
Beware South Africa, they look worryingly like their 2007 vintage, not purely because much of the personnel is the same, but in that they are peaking at the right time. It will be a big ask to beat Australia and New Zealand back-to-back to reach the final, but don’t rule it out.
They need to make it through their game ageist Samoa unscathed and hope the coach doesn’t make any selection gaffes to jeopardise their chances.
Full credit to Italy for putting away a spirited Russian side. Could they be a banana skin for Ireland?
Could it be that Marc Lievremont is looking for defeat against NZ, and therefore an “easier” run in the knock-outs? I think not, but picking Parra at 10 is inexplicable, when he will be faced with the best 10 in the business and be hounded by the champion No. 7. As for the continual selection of the past-it Traille… I don’t get it.
Good luck to all the underdogs this week – certainly gives the tournament some life when there are some upsets and close shaves!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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