It’s the business end of the Rugby World Cup, and with little to split the teams in each of the four matches, it’s time to run the microscope over each quarter-finals to find out who has the edge.
Quarter-Final 1: Ireland vs. Wales
A really tough game to call, with both sides coming into form at exactly the right time.
Match-up: The back rows.
Ask me to pick which loose trio I would prefer to have from Ferris, O’Brien and Heaslip vs. Lydiate, Warburton and Faletau and I would probably pick a different one each time.
In terms of experience the Irish have the edge, as they do in most areas of the park, but the fearlessness of the Welsh trio, and the wise head on Warburton’s shoulders could be telling when the chips are down.
The Welsh back row have been tested more in the competition than their Irish rivals, most notably in matching the vaunted South African trio of Berger, Brussow and Spies.
The Irish back row were prominent in their defeat of Australia, but it is much easier to make highlight-reel hits (See Ferris vs. Genia) and carries (See O’Brien, all evening long) when you are dominating in the front five.
If Wales can match the Irish in the tight, they may have the edge, through Warburton’s ability to create turnovers and force the opposition into penalties at the breakdown.
Prediction: Wales to win a classic.
Quarter-Final 2: England vs. Wales
Judging by the ticket sales, the least anticipated game of the weekend.
Match Up: Youngs, Wilkinson and Flood vs. Yachvilli, Parra and Mermoz.
There are parallels between the two nations, with France having two number nines, and England two number tens.
Each side is playing someone out of position. Each side is under immense pressure. Each side has had a less-than-calm build up off the field.
As I wrote at length in my previous piece, Wilkinson had an abject performance against Scotland, and his old mate Martin Johnson waited an inexplicably long time before putting Flood in at number ten (in fact until Jonny was injured).
I am among the many that believe it should have been the last time we saw Jonny wearing number ten this tournament.
Flood has made it into the side thanks to the injury to Tindall, and one suspects that part of this selection was to take some of the pressure off Jonny when kicking for goal. Safe in the knowledge that the French back row is light on big carriers, defence shouldn’t be an issue.
My main worry is that Wilkinson is currently standing so deep to receive the ball that the best parts of Flood’s game (playing on the gain line) will be negated.
Who knows what to make of the French? In the first ten minutes against the Al Blacks they were impressive, but they then capitulated. They followed that up with the single worst performance at this world cup in their defeat to Tonga.
Yachvilli has been the scourge of England in the past, and Parra is a classy operator at nine, but at ten I am unconvinced.
Mermoz has arguably been France’s best player over the last month and a lot of pressure will be on his shoulders come Saturday night.
England should be looking to send their big runners (namely Easter and Tuilagi) down the 9/10 channel to really test this combination, but that said, Wilkinson is standing in Dunedin when the forwards are in Auckland.
It won’t matter if it is Jonah Lomu crashing the ball up, the likes of Dusutoir and co will have plenty of time to get up in support of their lightweight team-mates and snuff out any danger.
France should be looking to use their strike runners in the 10/12 and 12/13 channels where the lack of playing time together could be an issue.
Prediction: England will win, just, and it won’t be pretty. Their non-selection of Haskell and Lawes, reduces their dynamism up front, and suggests a kicking based game plan and outmuscling the French up front.
Quarter-Final 3: Australia vs. South Africa:
Another cracker – Wellington certainly got the pick of the games this weekend.
Match Up: The front fives.
Much has been made of the battle between two of the games finest fetchers in Pocock and Brussow, and it will certainly be worth the entrance fee alone.
However, for Pocock to have a chance to wreak havoc at the breakdown he needs the big uglies up front to match their Springbok counterparts. With John Smit playing ahead of Bismark Du Plessis, the Wallaby front row will fancy their chances.
In the second row, the injury to Bakkies Botha has saved Peter de Villiers a selection nightmare. How do you drop Danie Russouw, the standout forward of their campaign, as he would surely have had to do?
He is not as abrasive as Bakkies, but his play in the loose, especially his running lines off 9 and 10 have been phenomenal.
The Wallabies have a point to prove. They performed ok up front against Italy, but were torn apart by the Irish, and Cian Healy in particular.
They will need to prove that they are the same front five that matched Italy (and New Zealand in Brisbane prior to the Rugby World Cup), and not the liability that we saw against Ireland.
I hope they step up to the plate, so this game can be the epic contest that it promises to be.
Prediction: South Africa to win. Morne Steyn’s metronomic boot and their experience carries them through in a very close and enthralling contest.
Quarter-Final 4: New Zealand vs. Argentina
This match is not about who wins but how the All Blacks win.
Match Up: The All Black number ten vs. The New Zealand public.
This matchup will not define the winner of the game, but it may well define how much further the All Blacks can go in the tournament.
At the time of writing, Graham Henry hasn’t announced the side, so we are unsure if he is opting for Slade or Weepu. I expect him to name Colin Slade.
This is not the time to play someone out of position, or to weaken your goal kicking so markedly. Moreover, playing Weepu at ten also means they are weaker at nine.
Playing Slade at ten will give him 80 minutes of live game practice with the first choice backs, getting into the comfort zone, ahead of the big tests in the semi-final, and dare I say it, final.
If the chosen ten has a shaky start, the crowd will get edgy. If he has a poor game, the fragile New Zealand psyche will go into overdrive.
I don’t care how professional the players claim to be, there is no way they are not feeling the pressure. Add to that a weak link at ten, and that pressure will be magnified.
There is already talk of New Zealand not making the final with Carter out, in the press. If his replacement puts a foot wrong, obituaries of the New Zealand campaign will be written, albeit far too early.
I hope that Slade (assuming it is him) performs well. He is no Dan Carter (he has no match, now or in history, in my opinion). But he is still a fine player. You do not become an All Black if you aren’t.
Prediction: Slade is solid, in a comfortable New Zealand victory, however he will need to be more than just solid in the semi-final.
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