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Australia’s Olympic rivalry with Great Britain will be no more evident than in cycling.
And no test event could be as big a barometer for medals than this week’s London leg of track cycling’s World Cup in which Australia and Britain are both fielding Olympic-strength teams.
The Australian Olympic Committee’s benchmark figures released at the end of last year predict Australia will win 15 gold medals and Britain will claim 14 in their private battle for fourth place on the medals table.
Four of those gold could come down to a direct confrontation between an Australian and British cyclist, while another six could also be fought out in other sports by the traditional foes.
Here’s some of the sports which should produce the biggest Australian-British rivalry in London:
CYCLING
The AOC’s benchmark is inflated somewhat by Australia’s six gold medals at last year’s world track cycling championships, where Britain only won one. That’s not going to happen in London.
Neither country will dominate like they did in Athens in 2004 when Australia won six cycling gold or Beijing four years later when Great Britain won eight. Germany, France and, inevitably, the Chinese have caught up and will restrict Australia and Britain to a couple, possibly three, golds each.
Anna Meares won three of those six world championship gold and is aiming for an ambitious and unprecedented keirin, sprint and team sprint treble in London. But she’ll have stiff competition from Olympic champion Victoria Pendleton in all three, particularly in the sprint.
Triple world champions Meares and Kaarle McCulloch in the inaugural women’s team sprint and the men’s team pursuit are Australia’s best chances of gold.
World record holders Australia are the hot favourites to reclaim the men’s teams pursuit gold but Beijing champions Britain will be the biggest threat.
Shane Perkins won the keirin world title last year, but faces Britain’s cycling knight, Sir Chris Hoy, who claimed the sprint treble in Beijing.
Perkins could also challenge in the sprint against Hoy and Jason Kenny, while Australia and Britain could fight for bronze in the men’s team sprint behind Germany and France.
Britain’s multiple Tour de France stage winner Mark Cavendish is an early favourite for the men’s road race, but Australia’s Matt Goss is seen as one of his biggest challengers in an event that will come down to team tactics.
ROWING
Britain won three gold medals in Olympic events at last year’s world championships to Australia’s two and are likely to get the better of the contest on home waters at Eton Dorney. The men’s fours and lightweight fours and women’s double sculls will provide the best head-to-head contest between Australian and British crews.
Veterans Duncan Free and Drew Ginn are almost certain to make up half of what Australia hopes will be a new Oarsome Foursome to reclaim the crown from Britain, which has won every gold in the event since the 2000 Sydney Games.
Australia’s lightweight four took the world title off the British last year, while Britain and Australia took gold and silver in the women’s double sculls and will likely duel for those positions in Eton.
SAILING
Britannia ruled the waves off Qingdao in China in 2008, but Australia set up this Olympic year by winning three gold to one at last year’s world championships in Perth.
Australia won two of those gold medals – the men’s 470 and the Laser – with Britain claiming the silver, so the rivalry will continue off Weymouth.
Malcolm Page and Mathew Belcher will reprise their Perth battle with British pair Luke Patience and Stuart Bithell in the 470s, while world Laser champion Tom Slingsby will be pressed by silver medallist Nick Thompson.
World 49ers champions Nathan Outteridge and Iain Jensen will also face a challenge from Britain’s fourth-ranked crew.
SWIMMING
Britain’s female swimmers provide the contest and, between them, Rebecca Adlington, Gemma Spofforth, Fran Halsall, Ellen Gandy and Hannah Miley will challenge Australia’s women. Britain and Australia could end up with just the one gold each in women’s swimming.
Emily Seebohm against Spofforth in the 100m backstroke and Jess Schipper versus Queensland based Gandy in 200m butterfly are probably the two biggest head-to-head clashes, although not necessarily for gold.
In the 400m individual medley, Stephanie Rice and Miley could fight out the minor medals, while Halsall faces Alicia Coutts in the 100m butterfly and Libby Trickett in the 100m freestyle.
In the open water 10km, Melissa Gorman might have to settle for a minor medal at best against Britain’s two-time world champion Keri-Anne Payne.
TRIATHLON
Since triathlon was introduced to the Olympics in Sydney, Australia has underperformed compared to expectations, with one gold, a silver and two bronze, while Britain is yet to win a medal of any colour.
But this is the year Britain will make its mark. British brothers Alistair and Jonathon Brownlee are tipped to repeat their world championships gold and silver double in the men’s, while Australia’s Brad Kalhefeldt could push for bronze at best.
Australia’s Emma Moffatt will start among the favourites for the women, but Britain’s world champion Helen Jenkins could make it yet another Australia-Britain battle for gold.
CANOEING
A change of programme could help Ken Wallace, even though his Olympic gold medal event the K1 500m has been scrapped in London.
It now leaves him to concentrate solely on his preferred event, the 1000m, in which he won bronze in Beijing behind Britain’s Tim Brabants.
A return bout between Wallace and Brabants, however, relies on the Beijing gold medallist winning his current battle to qualify for Britain’s spot.
DIVING
Beijing gold medallist Matthew Mitcham and British teen Tom Daley will both be trying to beat Qui Bo and his Chinese team-mates to the medals in the 10m platform.