Is 2012 the year the Gold Coast Suns begin their inevitable rise up the ladder? Let’s take a look.
The Recap
Last year: 3-19, 17th
Best and fairest: Gary Ablett
Leading goal kicker: Danny Stanley (20)
Key additions: Matthew Warnock (Melbourne)
Key losses: Nathan Krakouer, Daniel Harris
Analysis
Gold Coast’s debut season went about as well as it possibly could have. They avoided the forecasts of the “won’t win a game” crowd and proved to be an exciting team to watch.
For Guy McKenna’s men, three wins and plenty of promising signs from their plethora of young talent was enough for a pass mark.
Now things get tricky. Previously, the team has never really had any great expectations placed on it. But for a club many feel will be challenging for flags in the not too distant future, that was never going to last.
Already, one member of the media has proclaimed that a doubling of the win tally should be the expectation this year.
Being realistic, it’s fair to say a lot still rides on the group of experienced players at the club. We shouldn’t forget that.
Also, while it’s a fair assumption to make that there will be improvement among young players, they are still very young and second seasons have proven to be challenging for many kids. Just look at how every Rising Star winner since Joel Selwood has fared the following season.
Bigger bodies, more experience, the addition of Matthew Warnock and a full pre-season for Gary Ablett will all help. However, this will be another year where the amount of wins won’t be the number one thing the coaching staff will look for.
Predictably, the Suns conceded the most points of any team last season. The standout in defence was undoubtedly Nathan Bock, who was great at containing the opposition’s best forward, but unfortunately for the back line it looks like he’ll be a forward himself this year.
Warnock’s arrival from Melbourne has facilitated this. It might sound crazy to some, but ultimately McKenna would be mad to use both Bock and Warnock down back when there’s the opportunity to get games into Seb Tape, Rory Thompson, Jeremy Taylor, Steven May and Jack Hutchins.
Jarrod Harbrow had a solid year but Campbell Brown needs to avoid getting into trouble with the match review panel. He missed four games through suspension last year which, combined with the four he missed because of a broken pelvis, meant the team was without a key piece for far too long.
It may be hard for the back line to improve overall without Bock, however keep an eye on Maverick Weller and Joel Wilkinson, who should get better.
As for Karmichael Hunt, well, there will be more competition for games down back so he’d want to make sure his midfield experiment lasts.
Speaking of which, the midfield is one area of the ground where the Suns have been able to compete from day one. A bloke named Ablett has helped greatly in this regard.
The 2009 Brownlow medallist put to rest any doubts that he’d perform without being surrounded by a star-studded midfield with a fantastic year. You suspect he’ll have an even bigger 2012.
Michael Rischitelli also had a brilliant year and Jared Brennan was a key player in each of the Suns’ wins. Another player right up there was David Swallow, who lived up to the hype and finished fourth at the club’s best and fairest.
Among the other youngsters, it was the seasons of Dion Prestia and Trent McKenzie that impressed the most.
The continued development of ruckman Zac Smith is something all footy followers should be looking forward to, however. Last year was just his fifth playing Australian football, so surely he can only get better from here.
In the forward line, the future sure looks bright with Sam Day, Charlie Dixon and Tom Lynch as the tall targets. Day is a third overall pick and the other two had their moments last year, but with each standing 196cm or higher it may be a while until we truly see what they are capable of.
In the meantime, Josh Fraser will again spend time up forward and Bock presents an intriguing wildcard. He’s done well in the forward line during pre-season games and given he’s such a quality player, you’d expect that to continue.
No doubt, though, the old Brian Lake argument will emerge at some point this year when an opposition key forward is dominating – is he worth too much to the team in defence for him to stay forward?
Mature-age recruit Danny Stanley was important last year, leading the goal kicking with 20 and ranking fifth for disposals per game. Brandon Matera and Lynch ranked equal third for goals, and Harley Bennell came in equal fifth. Better still, none of that trio played more than 14 games.
Make no mistake, there will be a lot to like for astute watchers of the Suns this year. Just remember that McKenna will do his best to ensure his younger talent will get the experience they need to be a force down the track.
The days of dominance aren’t here yet.
Prediction: 16th-17th
m0nty’s Fantasy Picks
FanFooty.com.au‘s Paul Montgomery gives us his AFL fantasy picks for each team for 2012, including a keeper (the one you must have), cash cow (good prospects for healthy trading), and fools gold (avoid at all costs).
Keeper: Gary Ablett jnr. Not just because he’s the best player in the game, but he’s underpriced given his slow start to 2011.
Cash cow: Kyal Horsely is the story here, a 24-year-old mature-ager who has played five seasons for Subiaco in the WAFL. He may not be start-worthy but he’ll accumulate cash.
Fool’s gold: Some fantasy coaches are running the slide rule over Zac Smith, hoping that the first-year sensation can lift to keeper-level scoring. Ruckmen traditionally take longer than that to fully develop. Wait another season on the kid.
Gold Coast Suns photo gallery
First five fixtures
Round 1 vs. Adelaide, Metricon
Round 2 vs. St Kilda, Etihad
Round 3 vs. Essendon, Metricon
Round 4 vs. Brisbane, GABBA
Round 5 vs. North Melbourne, Etihad
This article was brought to you by Foxtel.
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