Rugbywits’ predictions for Super Rugby Round Five. There is no prelude this week. We are all business around here.
Blues v Hurricanes
Round five will open with a match with a lot at stake.
The Blues are by far the most disappointing team of the year so far. Without a doubt they have the talent to be a powerful side and should have been aiming for a home final. But out of the gate they have struggled, their record is one win from four matches. They have injuries mounting too – that always makes things tough but this match is a must win for their playoff hopes.
The Hurricanes are one of the highlights of the early season. They have outperformed expectations so far. Coming of a brutally close loss last week, this match is important for the Hurricanes’ youngsters. They need to keep playing consistently enough that, learning lumps and all, they are in a good place to make the most of the end of season when other sides will have many more tired All Black representatives than they will.
As for the way the game will be played out, who knows? Half of the Blues side is going to be so different so predictions are fairly fruitless and the Hurricanes have shown a youthful energy that has allowed them to adapt well game to game.
I think I have to believe the Blues will be desperate enough to sneak home, at home.
Prediction: Blues by 2
Rebels v Force
This will probably turn out to be a cracking match. Sometimes, matches between teams with the least expectations at the bottom of the ladder make the most exciting contests.
Last week the Rebels lost a real tussle to the Cheetahs and they finally found some attacking form. James O’Connor was a great ball running 10. Now, that Cipriani is back in that jersey lets hope the team still makes room for O’Connor to use the ball at 12, his ideal position.
The Force pulled off a great victory over the Waratahs last week. Sure, they were up against one of the most lacklustre home performances in New South Wales history, but it has also been a historically tough venue for the Perth-based side.
No matter how unemotional head coach, Richard Graham looked during the closing minutes of that match, you have to believe it did wonders for the players’ confidence. They should be bubbling as they head down to the European Capital of Australia. They’ll want to topple a second Australian conference team at home.
With a few road victories ‘in conference’ the Force are quietly setting themselves up for a run at second place in the conference with the luxury of defending their position on home turf in these return legs. *Taps wood, crosses fingers and reverse jinxes everything in sight for the sake of the Force.*
Waratahs v Sharks
The Waratahs are not to be backed until further notice. By ‘notice’ I mean that the players need to play a match and look interested, proud, energetic and ambitious. I would like them to attempt to win a game – as opposed to going out not to lose. After that I’ll consider picking them again. This team is as bi-polar as they come.
Analysis complete.
Prediction: Sharks by 6
Crusaders v Cheetahs
The Cheetahs have become real entertainers of the Super Rugby competition so far this season. Their relentless attack with the ball in hand has been paying dividends when they scored the winning try after the bell against the Melbourne Rebels last week. It certainly made up for the unlucky loss on fulltime against the Brumbies the week before.
The Cheetahs appear to enjoy their rugby and Captain Adriaan Strauss is leading his team from the front with enthusiasm and confidence. They probably do not have the strength to go all the way this season but they are certainly a joy to watch and play a style that other franchises could do well to emulate. Waratahs, take note.
Unfortunately they may have difficulty getting into stride this week against a Crusaders outfit, who will show no mercy in endeavouring to get their season up and away. It looks like the “House Full” signs will go up in Christchurch this Saturday with the Canterbury outfit back in their hometown for the first time this season.
Coming off a bye and quietly brooding over some performances considered to be unsatisfactory by their high standards; the Crusaders could be ready to turn it on. That could spell danger for the Cheetahs who have been on the road for almost a month.
Crusaders pack of forwards is almost fully made up of All Black reps and it will test the Cheetahs at the breakdown and scrum time.
Cheetahs back-row warrior Heinrich Brussow will again be at the for front of proceedings but will find it a little more torrid against the Crusader forwards than he did last week against the Rebels. The Cheetahs will put a brave struggle but I think the Crusaders will announce, in a big way, their return to Christchurch and this Super Rugby Tournament.
Prediction: Crusaders by 18
Brumbies v Highlanders
The Brumbies have shown considerable improvement since their first round performance against the Force and will need to continue in that vein against the high-flying Highlanders. Brumbies’ Coach Jake White has the young Brumbies playing with a great deal more structure, with Wallaby Hooker Stephen Moore leading the way.
In fact their effort last week against the Chiefs could have been the upset of the season if scrumhalf Nic White hadn’t encountered a sudden bout of “Aussie disease” by aimlessly kicking the ball back to the opposition, allowing the Chiefs to launch a final minute raid to score the winning try.
The Brumbies look a lot better when running the ball and Coach White has started to develop a “South African style” precision in his teams’ use of the rolling maul.
The Highlanders are on a winning streak and are leading the New Zealand conference. They are playing a tough, physical style of rugby with aggression at the breakdown and uncompromising defence. They would appear to be too strong for the Brumbies in the forwards on paper, but the same could be said of the Chiefs’ pack last week, who were more than accommodated by the Canberra side.
The match could be a brutal affair and it remains to be seen whether the Brumbies can lift themselves two weeks in a row against a strong New Zealand team. It is hoped that Brumbies’ fans turn up to support their young chargers who may well be outclassed this year, but are at least playing with some enterprise and plenty of courage.
At home the young Brumbies will make it uncomfortable for the Highlanders but the South Island forward pack led by Mackintosh and Andrew Hore should wear them down in the end.
Prediction: Highlanders by 9
Bulls v Reds
While Reds flyhalf Quade Cooper was captured on film patting Rhinos in South Africa last week, his mates will encounter the Blue Bulls in Pretoria on Saturday wishing that Cooper or the Rhino can pull on a red jersey and help them out.
With injuries to backs Mike Harris and Ben Lucas, coupled with the suspension of Digby Ioane, the Reds backline has called for replacements from home and have simply run out of players. Rookie fly-half Dallan Murphy has been flown in, and will get his first full Super Rugby cap when he runs on in the precarious number 10 jersey.
Coach Ewen Mackenzie has called it a test of character and says this match will show the versatility of his players and demonstrate his confidence in his rotation system. Good luck, Link!
The Bulls, like most South African and New Zealand teams have never been known to “give a mug an even break”, and will show no mercy, even if Link was to strap his boots up and take to the field himself. The Reds led 17 nil last week against the Sharks until the all South African officialdom – referee, linesmen, video referee, ball boys, ground announcers, barman etc – aided and abetted by the Sharks themselves, overhauled them to win a tight match: 27-22.
The Bulls, revamped after the retirement of several Springbok veterans, have been rolling along nicely and at home should just topple the Reds who will be happy to salvage any bonus points and head back across to Perth for next week’s encounter against the Force.
Prediction: Bulls by 6
Lions v Stormers
The undefeated Stormers take on the Lions in Johannesburg in the all South African derby and logically no one would think that the Stormers could do anything but remain ahead of their conference with a win and up a four-try bonus point in this match.
The Stormers backline of Aplon and Habana on the wings, Juan de Jongh and Captain Jean de Villiers in the centres and goal-kicking machine Peter Grant at 10 are a class outfit and providing they can get plenty of ball should give the Lions a torrid afternoon.
The Lions and their loyal following will give the Stormers plenty to think about early in the match, but as the game progresses the Capetown boys should have too much strike power.
Prediction: Stormers by 20
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