If selection is based purely on recent form, then Todd Carney should don the number six jersey for New South Wales in the first State of Origin match.
Carney’s rivals for the five-eighth role are Jamie Soward, James Maloney, Jarryd Hayne and Jarrod Mullen.
On paper Maloney appears to be Carney’s closest competition, having made the most metres, line breaks and points of the contenders, followed closely by Carney. Missed tackles and errors seem to be very much still a part of Maloney’s game – he has missed an average of six tackles per game in 2012.
There can be no weak links in a State of Origin defence, and Carney averages only two missed tackles per match, a much more forgiving statistic.
The battle between Carney and Hayne has received the most media attention. The most interesting difference between the pair is that Carney is the only one playing as number six for his club, with Hayne’s role being fullback.
This makes it difficult to compare their form, however only Carney has recent experience in the role, a striking advantage. While Hayne has previously played five-eighth for the Eels, it was only for four games in the 2009 season and according to former NRL coach Michael Hagan it was an experiment which did not work.
“He just didn’t look comfortable. I question whether such an experiment would be wise at State of Origin level,” he told Yahoo Seven Sport.
He said that a shift in position is a real big ask especially in such a big match.
“[Todd] is a tough competitor who has played in the halves all his career,” he said.
Soward is last year’s New South Wales five-eighth. As the incumbent, why is he not the obvious choice? New South Wales are desperate to break the Queensland dominance of six consecutive series wins and to do this, selectors need to take into account current form.
Soward is not at his peak, having not made a line break this season unlike the other contenders who range for one to six. He has not even crossed for a try. He has made just 31 runs to Carney and Maloney’s 52 each, resulting in just 238m compared to 342m, 414m and 501m to Mullen, Carney and Maloney respectively.
Mullen was on the Origin scene for one game in 2007 as halfback. However it is important to note that he was unable to secure a permanent position. Statistically he is third to Carney and Malloney in runs made, metres gained, tackles, hit-ups and offloads. These are primary elements of an all-round player, the kind of player suited to Origin. New South Wales would be better served by Carney, who has these all-round statistics and the added advantage of his goal-kicking ability.
Carney is the only one of the competitors to have received the prestigious Dally M Medal as five-eighth (Hayne has won it from fullback). He has played a major role in achieving four wins in a row for the Sharks and securing third spot on the ladder after finishing thirteenth last year.
Based on current form, natural prowess and his all round attack and defensive skills, Carney should be the number one contender to help lead the New South Wales Origin team to victory.
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