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In the last two years it hasn’t gotten much bigger than Collingwood and Geelong at the MCG and another epic is in the offing tonight. Join us from 7.50pm for live scores and commentary as we begin round eight with a bang.
Despite both sides having positive win/loss ratios in 2012, the critics are just itching to write one of them off.
The Cats are gone. The Cats are back. The Pies are gone. The Pies are back.
We’ve heard all of these multiple times already this year, and we’re only seven rounds in.
The only certainty out of tonight’s game is that, despite the likelihood of a slim margin either way, the winner will be ‘back’ and the loser will be ‘gone’.
Such is the cut-throat nature of AFL football.
Winning brings praise and glory, while a loss enables the media and talkback radio callers to ‘unleash the hounds’.
It has been well-documented that Geelong has lost the contested possession count in every game this year, including in wins against the lowly Brisbane and pathetic Melbourne.
It speaks to a lack of desire and hunger for the contest which you don’t normally associate with a team consisting of Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Corey, James Kelly and Paul Chapman.
While rectifying this stat will not be the sole focus tonight, there can be no question that it will be the top of the list, and the last thing ringing in the players ears before they step out.
With the fearless Selwood leading the way, expect them to more ferocious than we have seen so far.
For inspiration, they may look to the last quarter against Hawthorn in round two when they staged that remarkable comeback with a fierce attack at the ball and man.
If we look at the most fundamental numbers in football, the Cats are averaging 22 points less a game than 2011 and conceding 17 points more, suggesting they’re a six goal worse side than last year.
Important cogs Cameron Ling and Brad Ottens have retired, and line-breaking speed machines Travis Varcoe and David Wojcinski are yet to front up.
While none of these may be considered in Geelong’s best handful of players (in fact, only Ling finished in the top ten in their best and fairest last year), each are very, very good footballers, battle-hardened premiership players, and all played more than 20 games last season.
This has meant exposing the inexperienced likes of Steven Motlop, Taylor Hunt, Cameron Guthrie, Billie Smedts, Tom Gillies and Jesse Stringer.
In light of this, a drop off in output was not just going to be likely, but impossible to stop.
The Pies have been a different beast this year, losing more key members than the Wiggles, and at one stage people were confusing their injury list with their best 22.
Prime mover Luke Ball, and role-players Andrew Krakouer and Brent Macaffer are out of the season.
Key defenders Chris Tarrant, Nathan Brown and Ben Reid can’t stay on the park (the first two are again missing tonight, while the latter must face up to his Tomahawk demons).
Creative forward Alan Didak has only played one match while half-back/wingman Ben Johnson only three, and he won’t be seen again for some time.
Dale Thomas returns tonight from a hamstring injury, and Heath Shaw has only recently returned from the same injury.
Dayne Beams, Nick Maxwell and Harry O’Brien had interrupted pre-seasons, and Darren Jolly is 30, but was looking 55 in ‘ruckman years’ before he went down.
He makes his comeback tonight in what will be a largely solo performance, and all eyes will be on him to see if he has recaptured his spark.
After reading that rundown one might think that the Pies would be doing well to be 4-3, or even 3-4.
But no, there they are at 5-2, poised nicely to pounce when those that are fresh on the scene falter.
Their depth has been, and will continue to be, tested in the run to the finals, and even deep into September.
The ‘Bart Cummings preparation’ for the Pies that we continue to hear about will need to be spot on.
The difference is that the master trainer has roughly 6000 years of personal experience to call upon when training horses to peak for the Melbourne Cup, while Nathan Buckley is in his first few minutes at the helm.
So how is this grand final rematch going to play out?
Expect Taylor Hunt to go to Scott Pendlebury, but only for limited impact, while I fancy Marty Clarke to run with Stevie J.
The Irishman quelled the white-hot Brent Stanton on ANZAC Day, and with the dangerous Cat back in form running through the middle and pushing forward, a job will need to be done.
Ben Sinclair has been a livewire up forward for the Pies, and I’d be using him to lock down on Corey Enright as the Crows did last week, forcing him to handball more than kick.
The four time All-Australian can be susceptible to a hard tag, and shutting him down greatly upsets the balance of the Geelong back six.
Tyson Goldsack can do a similar role on Andrew Mackie, and with five goals in the last two weeks, has shown that he can hurt teams on the scoreboard as well.
The Cats look to have the edge in key forwards and backs. In Matthew Scarlett, Tom Lonergan and Harry Taylor, they have the luxury of three defenders capable of playing on Travis Cloke and an out-of-form Chris Dawes, while up forward Tom Hawkins and Ben Reid is a mouth-watering match-up, but James Podsiadly will be excited to take on Lachlan Keefe.
Nick Maxwell will need to be at his judgemental best to give his big men a helping hand.
For mine, Collingwood bats a bit deeper in the middle than Geelong, and even at the very top, Pendlebury and Swan are a more damaging duo than Selwood and Bartel.
This is not to denigrate the achievements and performances of the latter two, and we all know that if Geelong are down by less than a kick with minutes to go, Jimmy will be mark strongly 45m out and kick truly regardless of angle.
Form is running with the Magpies at the moment, having won four matches in a row, while the Cats have been outplayed in five of the seven they’ve contested so far, and are just not gelling as a unit.
Champion teams respond to critics, and while they’ve been lining up to declare the crumbling of the Geelong empire for over 18 months, it has intensified in the last week.
The many champions in their line-up will be stung into action, and a brutal contest awaits.
But Collingwood will know this onslaught is coming, and be prepared for it.
With the edge in form a decisive factor, I’m tipping a Magpie victory by 11 points.
Will the Magpie Army be able to celebrate their first win over the Cats since 2010? Find put from 7.50pm AEST as we cover what shapes as a cracking contest at the MCG with live scores and commentary so if you’re watching, let us know your thoughts in the space below.