We are still weeks away from the end of arguably the tightest season in recent memory, both in ladder position and quality of opposition. However, the landscape for the finals is looking clearer.
If the weekend’s results have shown nothing else, it is that a couple of the early front runners have dropped away and those that might have been written off early on seem to have got their timing right.
The Eagles are limping towards the finals. With a tough run home – Geelong, Collingwood and the Hawks for three of their last four – they could finish anywhere in the bottom half of the eight, or even out if it should results really conspire against them.
Their season could end it relative disaster to where they had hoped early on.
Essendon are in a similar position, with early season form promising what has, unfortunately, not quite been delivered.
Injuries have hurt the Dons, as they have the Eagles, and the result is that the players who have come in as cover are starting to run out of steam. Currently in the eight, competition for the final sports is fierce.
Injuries have also hurt Carlton, but their fall from grace could perhaps be defined more by their own overestimation of where they are as a team and the depth of their playing squad.
Constant speculation from outside the club about the future of the coach also doesn’t help either, but the team hasn’t stood up as much as they could have to back him when they have had the opportunity.
Richmond is also a team that have performed below expectations – to those around them and those internally.
Damien Hardwick was perhaps not quite as forthright as Brett Ratten in his early season predictions for his club, but a stance was clearly taken on a level of performance that has, unfortunately, not been totally backed up by his players.
North Melbourne’s early season optimism looked shaky for a while, but they have come good in recent weeks with a string of performances that are, if not scintillating, at least consistently encouraging. Their best is really good, and is good enough to cover when they play their worst.
The gap between the two is still too big to be a real contender.
Fremantle are another team who looked to be hard up against it early, with criticism from all sides on Ross Lyon and his impact on the side.
What the second half of the season has shown for them is that persistence pays off and Ross does seem to know what he’s talking about.
Should they continue their good form and make the eight, the prospect of a Derby final is a very real one. The fact that the Dockers would be the more confident team should this occur is testament to how far they have come.
The Crows had slipped a little but after escaping with a win against Essendon, are still heading for a top two finish. This, despite their pre-season success, is well above the expectations of most.
Sanderson has managed to keep his team together despite a couple of hiccups during the season that have caused other clubs to falter, a testament to the strength of his game plan and the belief he has instilled in the group.
Hawthorn, with so much form built in the last eight games, hit a hurdle with Friday night’s result. They are still a real contender, the way they rebound this week will say much about them and their prospects.
It is fascinating to see how much that loss to Geelong will affect them. They have the talent to bounce back, no question, but mentally that loss will test them.
Collingwood seem to be doing what they need to do to win games without showing the dominance in form they have in recent years.
No doubt the continued speculation on Travis Cloak’s future has affected both him and the club, as well as injuries to key players. The Pies know what they need to do however, and will be thereabouts when it matters.
Sydney continues to be the frontrunner and, if anything, have widened the gap between themselves and the rest in recent weeks. Renowned for their grit and defence, they have added a speed and ability to score this season which has been exhilarating to watch.
At times this year they have looked unbeatable and there is nothing to suggest this will change anytime soon. With guaranteed home finals coming, it will be hard to stop them marching towards their first grand final appearance since 2006.
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