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Where have all the draws gone in football?

Roar Guru
13th November, 2012
14

Something quite extraordinary happened in the Adelaide and Perth game Sunday evening. No, nothing of the ilk of Melbourne Victory’s pulsating come-from-behind defeat of Sydney.

Nor anything like Heart’s 4-1 dissection of the back-to-back champs. And nothing like Central Coast’s win across the Tasman to confirm their status as the League’s best team.

In fact, what was most extraordinary about the Adelaide and Perth game was the one-all scoreline.

That’s right, the one-all draw. Just the A-League’s fourth for the entire season, which is already six rounds and 30 matches old.

I once remember an Australian sports commentator attempting to explain that draws in Australian football were less likely because the nature of the Australian psyche would always push for a result. Or misguided words to that affect.

An opinion about as intellectually sound and statistically reliable as the one about scoring too early in games.

So if the lack of draws this season can’t be put down a question of mindset, what can it?

Looking over the first seven seasons of the A-League one thing is most particularly obvious. That draws are fairly common with little deviation from season to season, and they’re just as prevalent here as they are in the major European competitions.

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These are the rates of drawn matches over the first seven A-League seasons.

2005-06 – 84 matches played, 21 draws (24%)
2006-07 – 84 for 20 (22%)
2007-08 – 84 for 28 (32%)
2008-09 – 84 for 20 (22%)
2009-10 – 135 for 32 (22%)
2010-11 – 165 for 37 (28%)
2011-12 – 135 for 37 (27%)

So that’s 771 total A-League games going into this season with 205 ties at a rate of 26.5%

The Bundesliga last season? 306 matches for 79 draws at a rate of 26%.

The English Premier League hosted 380 matches and 93 draws last season at 24%, while Spain’s La Liga also hosted 380 matches for 94 draws at 25%.

What these numbers tell us is that indeed there’s nothing to suggest there’s anything in the Australian blood or in the blood of the many foreigners who play here, which would contribute to any drop off in the occurrence of draws.

Yet, we’ve still nothing to explain why there have been just four draws in 30 A-League matches this season at a measly rate of 13%, well shy of the 25% which seems about the norm both here and abroad.

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Unfortunately I can’t offer an opinion on why the draws have dried up this season, other suggesting we don’t be surprised if they start coming in thick and fast over the coming weeks.

Needless to say, however, I’d welcome any theories that attempt to explain this early season phenomenon, so long as they don’t make mention of Australian character traits.

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