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On Wednesday I buried the pretenders in an early grave. Yesterday I ran the rule over those still hanging in with a chance.
Today we dissect the teams sitting in a position from which a title assault is on the cards.
Super Rugby is a very hard competition to win. I personally think the age of a dynasty (such as the one the Crusaders enjoyed and even the Blues around the millennium may qualify), where a team rises like a giant over the rest of the field are over.
Adding conferences, more home derbies, familiarity and a break for international matches has made that sort of repeat success very hard. Teams need to be very, very good, have the puzzle fall into place in a particular year and a dose of luck to win the competition.
It is, however, possible to set yourself up for the best chance at winning. A good strategy is important, a great start helps a lot and the ability to switch gears as the opposition and demand on player availability takes hold is vital.
At this point of the competition the sides who qualify as genuine contenders have a good start and now find themselves in a position that allows them to kick on.
Bulls
We start with the team clearly on the lowest rung of the three out-and-out contenders. The Bulls have won three of four, but are coming off the back off a shellacking by the Crusaders.
In their favour, the Crusaders are hard to beat at home and were almost in a ‘must win’ mindset coming into that match. Add to that the fact the Bulls have already won two games at home, building an early fortress mentality there and made the mammoth journey to Auckland where they really did pull the Blues pants down.
On balance, the resume of the Bulls looks quite good.
Looking forwards, their home record is great and the biggest travel of the year is halfway done and they still sit atop the South African conference. Hard to poke holes in that result.
On the South African conference, if you stare at tables and numbers as often as I do you might have noticed the combined point differential of the conference is -45. The Australian number is +2 and the New Zealand on sits at +43.
So it’s safe to say the South African conference is yet to fully shake itself out. The Bulls have only a +3 differential after four games. They also need to search for more bonus points.
It’s true that this fortnight is important for them – they play the Reds and Brumbies away. That happens while the Sharks snapping at their heels are at home against the Rebels and then resting.
The Bulls are in the most tenuous position of the contenders and they need to perform well over the next two matches to retain their status.
Chiefs
After five rounds the Chiefs supporters don’t have too much to complain about. They’ve expertly negotiated a tour of South Africa and returned with seven points for their efforts, which can’t be sniggered at.
The loss to the Stormers was close and high-scoring, and netted them two points. Against the Kings they pulled out the long-sword and took it to the throne with ruthless efficiency.
The coaching staff have re-jigged the backline and it has settled into the year nicely – scoring an absolute load of points already. 155 in four games is an almost ridiculous pace for players who are still probably picking up on each other’s queues and habits.
In the grunts: Ben Afeaki is quietly going about building a case for being the hardest working open-field prop in the competition. Sam Cane is doing a good job of avoiding a sophomore slump and keeps on repaying the faith of All Blacks selectors launching him into prominence last year.
Brodie Retallick, perhaps the revelation of last year, is still doing his thing as well.
There are two areas I’d suggest the Chiefs need to look at and make sure they measure up.
The defensive side of the ball still needs a lot of attention from the men from Waikato.
The Blues, Reds, Sharks, Crusaders, Stormers and Kings are all ranked lower on the ladder than the Chiefs yet have leaked less than their 90 points so far. 22.5 points per game is going to see them slip up a few more times than they would desire over the course of the year.
The second area is what happens when a game is slowed down. There will be sides that successfully slow the pace of the game and ensure there are more set pieces and restarts than the Chiefs have played with this year.
Can the Chiefs still be explosive when they aren’t in such a good rhythm? I’m not saying they can’t, but that hasn’t been fully tested yet. And it will happen, whether by weather or opposition planning.
Brumbies
The team with the biggest variety of weaponry on display so far sits atop the likely winners list.
Try to flood the breakdown and stifle the ball and they’ll turn the fire hose on to blast you out of there.
Ram the ball down the middle and they’ll put a wall of Fotu Auelua, Ben Mowen, Peter Kimlin and George Smith in front of you.
Clog up the middle of the field and Christian Lealiifano, Jesse Mogg, Henry Speight and Joe Tomani will tear you apart on the flanks.
Launch an aerial assault and Nic White, Mogg and Matt Toomua will return your missile with interest, where chasers will make you think twice about catching it at all.
The Brumbies shown it’s possible to get the job done in a variety of ways. Just last week their game against the previously undefeated Sharks was their most brutally dominant, even disheartening, performance of the season to date.
In every game this year the Brumbies have gained more metres than their opposition on the ground as well as from the boot.
That rule applies except for the Sharks gaining 78 more metres from the boot in their match – the Brumbies accounted for that difference by running for 194 metres more and spending a full 25% of the contest in the Sharks 22m area.
Sometimes it’s hard to out-kick the opposition when you’re busy flogging them so thoroughly. In fact, kicking for metres becomes very problematic once you’re within 22m of the try-line.
After five rounds the Brumbies are already 10 points ahead of the Reds, their nearest competition in the Australian conference. The Force, Waratahs and Rebels are tied a further four points back. All signs point to a home semi-final in Canberra.
It wouldn’t be counting the chickens before they hatch for an excited PR staff to start drafting the announcement that semi-final tickets are on sale.
The Brumbies have a points differential of 83 after just four games. Yes, an average win margin of 20.75. There isn’t anything else that needs to be said about that.
Going into their round six show down at Newlands with the lurking Stormers, the Brumbies are the side to beat.
No, this isn’t a Waratahs fan trying to reverse jinx a rival. I’m in awe.
Anyway, I don’t think you can jinx a war machine.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.