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Robbie Deans has given us an indication of his core Wallabies to play the Lions in the upcoming tour, and after careful study, here are five major points of discussion about the squad.
I don’t want to ignore Super Rugby and subsequently haven’t written a whole lot about the Lions tour yet. But a squad selection is justification enough to let my mind wander into speculation and imagination.
1. The second row for Australia is going to be outgunned by the Lions
I just don’t think there’s anything that can be done about it either.
The selections of James Horwill and Rob Simmons are justified to me and probably most people.
I don’t think Sitaleki Timani is the third best in Australia but Hugh McMeniman is still injured and Kane Douglas really only just shades him. Hugh Pyle is probably the form lock in Australia right now but is too much of a bolter for a Lions tour; I’m hoping he’s given a chance in a squad later this year.
The problem: even if my preferred lock duo were available – Horwill and McMeniman – we would probably be at a disadvantage come lineout time.
They’d be able to match the physicality fairly well but aren’t jumping specialists. Timani will probably be picked by Deans and presents the same problem although I think he’s a weaker ball runner than McMeniman in reality.
The other option is Simmons. If he partners Horwill, our lineout becomes much more effective but he’s not strong in the scrum or around the park.
He’s tried to up the ante in his physical game but is a bit of a Brodie Retallick there – more bark than bite.
The second row is going to be a Lions advantage.
2. James O’Connor has the rail run to the line for the 10 jersey or Robbie Deans is playing one of the best mind games in Lions Tour history
My ears pricked up during the press conference announcement when Deans said, “[Quade Cooper] will get the opportunity to play against the Lions” – referring to the Lions midweek match against the Reds.
Initially, I thought he was admitting he’s been left out only to be guaranteed selection in the group of six*. Really he was basically saying Quade Cooper has to dominate in the remaining Super Rugby games and then against the Lions in a weak Reds side to make the team.
*We really need a nickname for the still-to-be-named group of six players. The Mind-games Six? The Six on the Edge? The Paratroopers Six?
The alternative, and one that appeals to me greatly, is that Deans is playing some smoke and mirrors to make the Lions prepare for one sort of Wallabies attack and then unleash Cooper on them later on.
That’s probably not the truth but I’m going to hope it is. Really, Cooper is the best fly-half we have.
The reality is probably found in this Deans quote: “None of our five-eighths have had consistent time at international level in recent years, which is frustrating to us… James [O’Connor] has got that opportunity.”
Whether it was meant to sound that way or not it appears to be a coronation into the number 10 jersey for O’Connor.
3. I have a feeling players in the Paratroopers Six will figure significantly in the series
For instance, it’s almost guaranteed that a reserve halfback will be on the bench but there was only once chosen in the initial squad. One of Nic White, Nick Phipps or Luke “Bolt-From-The-Blue” Burgess will at least be chosen to warm the pine.
If James O’Connor’s sternum plays up and the team has been planning with Berrick Barnes at 15 – where he has spent a fair bit of time for the Wallabies in recent times – Cooper could be named in the Paratroopers Six and rushed right into the starting side.
That would be much easier to do than the other way around because of his relationship with Will Genia.
I think Benn Robinson and James Slipper have a good chance to be the starting props. But a specialist for either side of the scrum (Dan Palmer or Greg Holmes) could get game time in the event of an injury to one of these already chosen props.
Ben Alexander and Sekope Kepu are versatile and suited to the bench because of their athleticism, so a later inclusion could leap-frog them.
The other most obvious – to me and a lot of rugby minds, which may not necessarily mean Deans – involvement would be if Hugh McMeniman was healthy and showed any glimmer of his early season form. His drop zone would be right above the game day 23.
4. The Wallabies are going to be great in the back row
The injury of Wallabies legend George Smith was enough to make a lot of people unhappy. I’m unhappy for him, but don’t think it’s a huge impact on our ability to win the series.
My belief is that nostalgia or respect has earned Smith more kudos in people’s minds as much as he’s earned it on the field.
Don’t get me wrong – he’s been very good. I just think Michael Hooper has been a force to be reckoned with and hasn’t dropped his form in a single match this year.
He shows a nose for the ball, especially when it’s near his own line, he doesn’t infringe often and has remarkable speed and wonderful hands.
Liam Gill has been excellent this year, and was probably better than Hooper in the first month but not by much. Since then he’s been shaded round after round by Hooper.
Smith has had a wonderful veteran presence this year, knows a lot of the rucking dark arts and has some ball handling skills. But he gives away a lot of penalties and hasn’t shown anywhere near Hoopers impact running the ball.
Michael Hooper is the all-round package Australia has been looking for to lead us in this series.
I think he’ll be the best rugby player in Australia besides Will Genia in two years’ time.
I haven’t even covered the rest of the back row yet.
Dave Dennis selection isn’t a shock, but isn’t fantastic. He’s not strong enough.
The other selections make me smile – Scott Higginbotham is on a huge upswing, Wycliff Palu is playing well if not at career best and Ben Mowen is a workhorse.
Whatever mixture of Tom Croft, Sean O’Brien, Sam Warburton, Toby Faletau and Justin Tipuric are deployed against us we should have an edge if everyone plays to form.
5. Israel Folau is earning his pay-check
Before, during and after the squad announcement I noticed that almost every journalist I follow on Twitter was breaking the news of the squad selection with Israel Folau as the headline.
Nearly every person I know personally with an interest in rugby was discussing Folau’s selection.
Just about all of the television news that covered the Wallabies squad announcement lead the story with talk about Israel Folau’s selection.
People love this guy. He’s a drawcard and earning his paycheck in terms of rugby exposure many times over.
Cooper is the only personality in rugby that generates a level of buzz in the same ball park as Folau and that’s currently because he’s not been selected.
People will probably lament Jesse Mogg not being in this squad but I think the number of people making a case that Folau shouldn’t be there are few. His on-field play is matching the off-field hype.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.