Collingwood host the Sydney Swans tonight at the MCG in what looks one of the most enticing games of Round 9, and the result could have season-long ramifications for both sides.
Collingwood
Collingwood have underwhelmed so far this season. They were recognised as one of the premiership favourites at the start of the season, but have since gone on to produce a mixed-bag of performances.
After starting the season off in impressive fashion with hard-fought victories over North Melbourne and Carlton, the Magpies were blown off the park by a second-half Hawthorn display in Round 3 and similarly went missing when it counted against Fremantle in Round 7.
While Collingwood’s midfield remains one of the best in the competition and its forward-line has improved with Quentin Lynch’s arrival and the growing maturity of Travis Cloke, it is Collingwood’s defence that has become its greatest issue.
Under Mick Malthouse Collingwood was ranked first for tackles and contested possessions its its 2010 Premiership season, but under Nathan Buckley is ranked 10th in tackles and 12th in contested possessions.
Collingwood’s erratic form led coach Nathan Buckely to question whether the Pies were actually a good team. And credit to them, they responded accordingly.
A six-point victory over Geelong last week was not merely a sign that they could deliver under pressure, but statistically that they could go back to back to basics.
Nathan Buckley’s outfit raised their tackle count and limited Geelong’s efficiency.
At the MCG and after a morale-boosting win Collingwood will back themselves in to get the job done against the reigning premiers.
Sydney Swans
In a similar vein to Collingwood, Sydney have been erratic and unspectacular this season. Opening wins against Greater Western Sydney and the Gold Coast failed to set the football world alight.
Although both games were considered formalities and largely under-hyped, the Swans failed to illuminate in any way and GWS in particular ensured the game was competitive throughout.
Various experts suggested that the Swans first true test would come against North Melbourne and that the Round 3 clash would be the first real indicator of where John Longmire’s team were truly at in season 2013.
Despite a slow start to the game where they trailed at half-time, the Bloods came out and played some scintillating footy in the third quarter.
Spearheaded by a dominant midfield showing from midfielder Josh Kennedy, the Swans kicked 11 goals for the quarter and played a brand of footy more synonymous with their exploits from the previous season.
Despite going on to the defeat the Kangaroos comfortably, the Swans were beaten the next week by Geelong in what was an anti-climactic display given their second-half display the previous week.
Coach John Longmire asserted that his sides’ lacklustre performance was uncharacteristic and a far-cry from the standards his team had set.
A narrow 16-point victory over St Kilda in Round 5 did little to restore confidence, but a 50-point thrashing of the Brisbane Lions in Round 6 appeared to restore parity.
The Swans dominated the contested possession count and won the tackle count despite winning the game by a considerable amount.
Criticism of budding key-forward Sam Reid was also momentarily put to rest with the Swans taking a whopping 19 marks inside 50 and with Reid himself contributing three goals.
Despite this supposed turn in form, the Swans would relapse again with a heavy defeat to Hawthorn and a draw with Fremantle where they led by 27 points at three-quarter time.
Like Collingwood, the Swans led the league in tackles and contested possessions last year in their premiership year, but unlike Collingwood have continued their manic pressure and attack on the footy.
The issue instead lies in their disposal efficiency and their marks both inside and outside the forward 50. Those stats are significantly down from last year.
Where the game might be won
Midfield
One place where this game might be won is in the middle. Both team’s have elite players in the midfield who have the capabilities to turn a game.
Watching these two teams square off at centre-bounces will be an aesthetic pleasure for the neutral.
Sydney’s Josh Kennedy and Collingwood’s Scott Pendlebury are ranked two and five respectively on the AFL’s official player rankings, and Swans co-captain Kieren Jack and Collingwood’s Brownlow medalist Dane Swan could also be key to their side’s fortunes.
Despite both teams having offensive players that can break the game open, expect Sydney to be the more defensive team in the midfield.
All guns blazing you’d expect Collingwood’s midfield would be the superior one and It is for this reason that the Swans will look to negate the influence of Collingwood’s most damaging players.
In order for the Swans to be successful in this task they will need maintain a high tackle and uncontested possession count, must limit Collingwood’s kicking efficiency but most crucially hit targets inside forward-50
Rebound 50s
Another potential area that could be crucial is rebound 50s.
It’s already been addressed that Collingwood were formally the trend-setters when it came to tackles and contested possessions, but their best asset was perhaps their ability to apply forward-pressure.
Under Mick Malthouse the Magpies were such a difficult team to play against because they would prevent other teams from rebounding out of their defensive-50.
Currently, the Swans are ranked seventh for rebound 50s and the Magpies 10th, but with Collingwood’s forward-line functioning as an attacking unit, it’s only a matter of time before we see more focus going into its defensive capabilities.
Form
Collingwood: WLWLW
Sydney: LWWLD
Last time they met
Sydney: 13.18 (96) defeated Collingwood: 9.6 (60) at Stadium Australia, preliminary final 2012a
Key players
Collingwood: Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan, Travis Cloke
Sydney: Josh Kennedy, Kieran Jack, Sam Reid
Prediction
Sydney by 10 points.
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Multicultural round was changed in 2018 showing that the AFL have not been as committed to multiculturalism as they should be.
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