There has been a lot of conjecture on the probable Lions team, and many Roarers putting up lists of their preferred teams or favourite players.
However little has been put up on how these teams have been picked except for broad statements like attacking rugby, running rugby, best players etc.
I thought about the way I would pick a team, and then also applied this methodology to Deans.
Thus I came out with two teams, Deans and my preferred team, however with the background detail upon how these players were picked.
The methodology is to apply criteria in order of importance. If someone is well above in the higher criteria they are selected, if they are multiple of roughly equivalent then you go to the next criteria.
Then a final review to see if all the basic requirements are met and if the team is balanced. This helps catch bias say towards offensive or defensive or x-factor or power or workhorses.
The criteria
1. Which players suit the Wallabies game plan the best?
2. Which players can exploit the Lions’ weaknesses the best?
3. Which players can counter the Lions’ strengths the best?
4. Which players have significant weaknesses that will be targeted by the Lions?
5. Which players have excelled at international level?
6. Who forms the best combination with players around them in key positions?
7. Which players are in form in Super Rugby?
Obviously Super Rugby form is the lowest criteria and in my opinion far too many people place too high a value on that. Note that criteria four is unusual in that this is a criteria to exclude a player or at least cover for by another player.
I will go through the team that I think Deans will pick.
What will Deans’ game plan be? I believe his commentary and game plan used over the last two years are the best indicator of that. Deans’ game plan is defensive and conservative.
The Stormers epitomise that game plan far more than any other team, more so than the Crusaders or Brumbies.
Win the collisions, get over the advantage line, have a strong defence, force turnovers, kick goals, kick for territory, minimise mistakes, minimise risks.
Attack consists of crash ball, recycle, and repeat until a penalty or you get behind the defensive line. If the defence pushes you back kick the ball deep.
Note the Wallabies averaged one try a game like the Stormers do.
Other than the game plan you need to determine what skills or abilities does Deans admire in players. I believe he admires hard workers, the no-frills players, the consistent hard players.
Here is a list of quotes from Deans that I believe add context in these areas:
“The Lions series is going to be brutal – it’s going to be a war of attrition.”
“You’ve got to have people working hard, asking of your opposition, being physical on every occasion when you meet them, making their momentum as difficult as possible and then creating momentum yourself when you have the ball.”
“Some of the viewing public prefer the visible ‘x-factor’ stuff but it’s a team game and that doesn’t cut it against teams of substance.”
“If you recall the fixture at Eden Park we didn’t stick to the script and we played very laterally, we kept going to the edges, and we disrespected our opponent so that ‘play, play, play’ mentality and approach doesn’t cut it.
“So you’ve got to have blokes who ask of the defence, you’ve got to engage them and you’ve got to ask enough of them to sap them in order to profit.”
Additionally Deans believes his ‘discoveries’ deserve the credit for great performances:
“There was a lot of discussion around Pat McCabe last year; well, our attack in the Tri-Nations was the best it’d been in ten years, and it was superior to the All Black and Springboks and hence we won the title.”
Personally I believe others were far more worthy of the attacking credit than McCabe.
The players Deans will choose under criteria one (suit his game plan best) are:
Moore, Polota-Nau, Horwill, Timani, Douglas, Dennis, Mowen, Hooper, Palu, Genia, Ioane, McCabe, Ashley-Cooper, Tomane.
Obviously the choice of hooker, locks, and backrow will be determined by another criteria.
The players Deans will choose under criteria two (exploit Lions’ weaknesses) are:
O’Connor, Barnes, Beale, Cooper.
The players Deans will choose under criteria three (counter Lions’ strengths are)
Robinson, Alexander
The team is mainly balanced in that it has a goal kicker, a lineout caller, a playmaker, ball carriers, hard tacklers, workhorses and a pilferer.
It does lack creative players, and x-factor (dangerous attacking players) since direct physical players were preferred.
Thus a complete team has already been reached. The lineout will be called by Dennis or Mowen so a lineout lock like Simmons or Pyle will not be needed.
Dennis will be selected over Mowen due to criteria five since Deans has been a public admirer of Dennis and his performances.
Also Beale would normally be picked under criteria five but he is probably unavailable so Barnes will be selected over Folau under this criteria. Cooper will be the only player excluded under criteria four.
Based on previous teams Deans prefers Polota-Nau over Moore and Timani over Douglas however they could easily be switched.
Deans’ Team
01 Robinson
02 Polota-Nau
03 Alexander
04 Horwill
05 Timani
06 Dennis
07 Hooper
08 Palu
09 Genia
10 James O’Connor
11 Ioane
12 McCabe
13 Ashley-Cooper
14 Tomane
15 Barnes
My Criteria and Team
I believe the best way to beat the Lions is to attack, using speed and open play. Runs at spaces NOT at the men.Use a similar game plan to McKenzie when playing big, strong physical teams. Similar to the plan used against the Bulls, keep the ball in play, and keep the ball in hand.
Deny the Lions the use of the lineout from which to set mauls or box kick with big chasers. Move the big Lions players around forwards and back and side to side. Keep the ball in hand and in play requires forwards and backs who can offload the ball.
This will create space which can be utilised by creative players putting good runners into gaps.
Also deny the Lions a roll on by slowing their ruck or better still turning over the ball.
Note I expect the Lions to attack and run the ball more even if it is a more direct style rather than play territory and wait on penalties, I expect the Lions to want to score tries and play to score tries.
Under criteria 1 the players I would choose are:
Higginbotham, Smith (if not available then Gill), Palu, Genia, Cooper, Lealiifano, James O Connor, Folau
Under criteria 2, I would choose Hooper (on the bench).
Under criteria 3 the players I would choose are:
Robinson, Palmer, Ryan, Sio, Horwill, McMeniman (if not fit then Pyle), Ioane, Tomane, Ashley-Cooper
Under criteria 4 I would exclude:
Beale weak under the high ball, poor defence and poor decision making, Dennis for not making and impact and a poor lineout caller, McCabe for being one dimensional and predictable.
Under criteria 5 I would choose:
Cummins, also Ioane is chosen ahead of Tomane, Robinson over Sio
Under criteria 6 the players I would choose is
Moore over Polotau-Nau for his combination with Palmer.
The team is balanced in that it has a goal kicker, a lineout caller, a playmaker, creative players, x-factor players, ball carriers, hard tacklers, workhorses and a pilferer.
My team against the Lions would be:
01 Robinson
02 Moore
03 Palmer
04 Horwill
05 McMeniman
06 Higginbotham
07 Smith
08 Palu
09 Genia
10 Cooper
11 Ioane
12 Lealiifano
13 Ashley-Cooper
14 James O Connor
15 Folau
Replacements
16 Polota-Nau
17 Sio
18 Ryan
19 Pyle
20 Hooper
21 Cummins (need cover for 13)
22 Tomane
23 Mogg
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