Every year at around this time we see a swathe of articles suggesting that the top eight is set, and that no team currently outside the eight can break in.
If you’re anything like me, you probably find these articles premature, and even a bit on the annoying side, especially since only twice in the 18-year history of the current 16-plus team competition has this actually proven to be true.
That being said, I am extremely confident that this year it’s true.
Ok, I can already hear the outraged yells brewing. Let me explain my reasoning.
First, let’s take a look at the current top eight sides and assess if any are a realistic chance of falling out of the eight.
Then, we’ll see if any sides not currently there have a chance of breaking in.
The Current Eight
I think we can all agree that Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney are 100 percent safe.
Hawthorn have just notched up a 10th consecutive victory, the first time they’ve achieved this feat since 1975, and are red-hot flag favourites. They’re set.
Geelong continue to amaze the football world with their longevity and self-belief and will undoubtedly be around come September.
And Sydney? Well, anyone who doubted the reigning premiers’ chances in season 2013 has been well and truly silenced after the blistering form they have shown in their last three outings.
How about Essendon? Ah yes. Though the Bombers don’t exactly have the best record in the latter half of recent seasons, a quick look at their draw reveals they aren’t going very far.
While a tough run home including the Hawks, Pies, Blues and Tigers may see them fall a few places, their next four against West Coast, Port, the Doggies and the Giants should see them get to round 18 with at least 12 wins.
It would be a far cry to fall out from there.
What about Fremantle? Despite a horror injury run, the Dockers have shown amazing maturity and mental toughness this year, typified by their last quarter fightback against the Swans in Round 8.
With many of their injured stars set to return soon, and considering they play only three of the current top eight teams in their final 11 matches, there should be no doubt they are a genuine top four contender.
Collingwood? Much has been made of the Pies’ inconsistent and scrappy performances this year.
While part of this can be attributed to injury, many have speculated that it is more likely the result of growing pains as the playing group adapts to Nathan Buckley’s coaching style.
In any event, the Pies are well-placed to make a genuine run come September, with several key players set to return, and a next five that includes Port, the struggling Crows, and both expansion clubs.
Richmond? The mood down in Tigerland at the minute is one of restrained excitement.
After 12 rounds, they can smell their first finals appearance since 2001, but are being careful not to count their chickens – they’ve been burned before.
Alas, it appears that this might just be their year, with six of their final 11 against current bottom-10 sides.
Even assuming they lose all the others, notching these six would get them to that magical number of 13 wins, which would almost certainly be enough. It would take a real capitulation to drop out from here.
Carlton? Hmm. The Blues are probably the only current top eight side with a realistic chance of missing September.
They have their work cut out for them with games against the Pies, Swans, Dockers, Tigers and Dons in their last 10.
They will probably need to beat at least one of that group to make the eight. But judging from their near misses against high flyers Essendon and Hawthorn in recent weeks, the Blues are adapting well to Mick Malthouse’s high pressure game plan, and look set to make a real run in the latter half of the year.
The Best of the rest
That’s the first reason I think the eight is set: the teams currently there won’t lose their spots.
But what is even more compelling is the teams outside the eight. Of those 10, do any have a reasonable chance of breaking in? In my opinion, the answer is no.
Melbourne, GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane, and the Bulldogs are all sitting on three wins or fewer, and cannot make it from here.
North Melbourne, while appearing dangerous early in the season, have fallen out of the hunt in what has been a well-documented series of narrow losses. Which leaves only four: West Coast, Port, Gold Coast and the Crows.
At just five wins, and with a next five that reads: Suns, Eagles, Magpies, Cats and Dockers, Adelaide are all but done and dusted.
It would take a serious turnaround for last year’s preliminary finalists to make the eight from here, and considering their recent form, that seems highly unlikely.
Port Adelaide were the surprise packet early this season, jumping to a 0-5 record under new coach Ken Hinkley.
But after their lofty start, five straight losses brought them back down to earth, and while they now sit on a healthy six wins at the halfway point of the season, a horror next four against Sydney, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn will likely see them at 6-9 come round 17, with a run home that will still include Carlton, Freo and Geelong.
Finals appear to be out of the question.
What about West Coast? The Eagles have this year gone from flag favourites in many people’s books, to stragglers.
Though injuries hurt them early, they have since regained most of their stars and yet look as flat as ever.
Their ‘fortress’ of Paterson’s Stadium has crumbled, having lost four games there this year already.
And with seven games against current top eight sides to come, they would have to pull off a miracle to make September from here.
Which leaves just one team, and for mine the one with the best chance of cracking the eight at this stage: Gold Coast.
We all knew the time would come when the Suns ceased to be a walkover and became a genuine threat, and yet it has seemingly taken everyone by surprise.
Guided by the evergreen champion Gary Ablett, and with a host of young players who look set to become the next generation of stars, the Suns have not only managed five wins to date, but even more impressively, have been ultra-competitive in games against top sides Geelong and Hawthorn.
If the Suns can replicate this impressive form late in the season, and win the lion’s share of their last 10, which includes only three of the current top eight sides, they are an outside chance to scrape into the eight.
Boy would Andrew Demetriou love to see that!
However, a much more likely scenario will see them finish with somewhere around 10 wins, which will not be enough to make September.
And so the top eight is set in stone. And I couldn’t be more excited for the finals!
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.
Jack Higgins' three-match suspension for a dangerous tackle on Port Adelaide defender Aliir Aliir has been upheld after a marathon three and a half-hour…
The former Collingwood president says the Kangaroos need to 'stand for something' not just on the field but in the community or risk being…
The All-Australian player has been below his best this year, and Matthew Lloyd has suggested that he be moved more into the midfield to…
The AFL need a more simple approach to high contact and one that makes players accountable, regardless of intent.
He and Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell do not like having a player to sub on and would rather have an extra player available on…
The Footy Classified commentator says people should give Jason Horne-Francis credit for what the young star does for Port Adelaide in key moments -…
