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The Lions might have just edged the Wallabies 23-21 at Suncorp last night, but Robbie Deans largely got his game plan and selections right.
“What?” you might say. “Wake up to yourself” could be another, or “No you fool, shut up”.
But give me a minute or two to explain myself.
Deans went with some controversial selections for the Lions Test, like the omission of Quade Cooper and the selection of Israel Folau on the wing. Some worked, some didn’t. On the whole though, they did pay off more often than not in my opinion.
What wasn’t on the Wallabies side last night was decent goal kicking and luck with injuries.
Remember, the Wallabies lost by two points. Kurtley Beale had two chances to win the game in the dying stages and missed both.
Either would have meant a decent result. But before we crucify the Rebels back, let’s remember his vital 55m penalty a few years again in South Africa to win Australia a crucial game.
It wasn’t just Beale’s misses that were costly, but James O’Connor’s early on. O’Connor converted just two from five attempts. Usually the Bieber look-a-like is a good kicker. Overall the Wallabies missed five shots at goal from nine attempts.
That’s simply not good enough at this level. While we can’t expect them to convert everything, scoring just one of those five (of several which were clearly kickable), would have either won or drawn us this game.
You might say that Quade Cooper would have kicked better than Beale or O’Connor.
But that’s ignoring the fact that Berrick Barnes or Christian Lealiifano would have been handed the kicking tee before Beale, had they not both been forced off. And according to Super Rugby stats, Lealiifano has scored many penalties than Cooper while O’Connor has made more successful conversions than the Reds playmaker.
Lealiifano is probably the most accurate goal-kicker Australian can call on, unless Daryl Halligan puts his hand up and is available through residency. And Barnes has the background of winning a Test against Wales with a last-minute penalty in 2012.
I haven’t seen this many Wallabies go down hurt since the match in South Africa last year.
What are off the odds of Barnes being injured in a collision with his own winger? I can’t remember seeing a flanker and a scrum-half needing to be drafted into an Aussie backline in any Test in recent memory.
These injuries threw off Deans’ plans and forced a huge reshuffle. Australia’s midfield defence suffered, especially with the Alex Cuthbert try, ignoring the small obstruction in the lead-up, and so did its attacking potency and in-game kicking options.
In other areas, Ben Mowen was outstanding, doing everything and more than was asked of him. The Brumbies captain really justified his selection. After some struggles early on the Wallaby front row fronted up and was impressive.
Israel Folau proved once again that he’s a match-winner; regardless of the code he’s playing. Kane Douglas was sound, while the powerful Michael Hooper showed what he could do in the absence of Pocock, Smith etc.
What can you say about Will Genia – simply outstanding.
Deans’ plan was to rely on Genia heavily as Australia’s chief playmaker and that was a smart call. I’d give O’Connor a pass-mark at 10. He was solid not superb. Satisfactory not sensational but he can’t be blamed for the defeat.
Considering the Wallabies haven’t played a Test together since December, overall they played well. There was always going to be some rust in the first Test. What couldn’t be expected was the casualty rate.
Individual, key errors were also very costly. A poor kick from Barnes early on and an even poorer kick chase led to George North’s first try. North rarely passes and the Wallabies giving him space just allowed him to run and score a great try.
You can’t coach against poor decisions made by individuals on the field. Other choices, when Beale didn’t pass to his winger twice when there was space on the flank, add up. Johnny Sexton twice brilliantly holding up players in the tackle was crucial too.
Such is rugby, and life.
Regardless, in the end injuries cruelled the Wallabies’ hopes along with poor goal-kicking, two things largely out of Deans’ hands.
What happens in the next seven days will be crucial. Injury clouds will be over several of the Wallabies backs – McCabe, Barnes, Lealiifano, Ashley-Cooper. My mail is that Lealiifano should be OK but there is also a big doubt over Ioane.
If Barnes, McCabe, Ashley-Cooper and Ioane are all out for the second Test then that would be disastrous for the green and gold.
What do the Wallabies do then? Apart from praying, replacements are thin on the ground. Do Drew Mitchell, Quade Cooper and Anthony Fainga’a come in? Or do they call up Rob Horne, Jesse Mogg and Ben Tapuai?
What about Matt Toomua or Bernard Foley? Big decisions are to be made.
The Wallabies could re-shuffle their backline to have Beale at 10, O’Connor at 11 and Folau at 15. Getting Folau more of the ball with time and in space is essential.
Here is where Deans’ choices and selections will really count. He knows his job security is on the line.
Warren Gatland has his own issues to sort out. Mike Phillips was poor and his back-row was largely beaten at the breakdown.
The Wallabies might be 1-0 down but the Lions series can still be won. Australia did it in 2001. Last night definitely showed the Lions are beatable.
Sorting out our kicking woes, using Folau more and giving the ball more width at times can result in a Wallaby win at Etihad. Strengthening our midfield defence and kick-chase, and ironing out our kicking with ball in hand, could mean a victory in Melbourne.
Bring on the second Test.
Follow John Davidson on Twitter @johnnyddavidson
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.