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Game 3 of the 2013 State of Origin series will be played tomorrow night at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, as the NSW Blues and Queensland Maroons face each other in the deciding match of the series.
If it feels like I’ve written the following sentence a hundred times over the last six weeks, it’s probably because I have: the Blues will be looking to end seven years of pain, while Queensland will be looking to extend their already historical dominance by yet another year.
In the lead-up to the game, we ask, and answer, one key question for each team:
Do New South Wales have enough points in them?
So far in the series, the Blues have scored a total of 20 points, and in a contender for understatement of the year, I’m going to predict that 10 points – their per game average – won’t be enough to defeat the Maroons at Homebush tomorrow night.
Optimistic New South Welshmen will point out that 10 points would have been enough to defeat Queensland in game one, but you would have to be crazy to think the Maroons will play that badly again.
Game 1 was an anomaly, due to Queensland’s admitted complacency, Johnathan Thurston’s off game courtesy of injury, and a sluggish first 60 minutes from the Maroons.
Bottom line is that Queensland won’t repeat their performance from Game 1, and that means you can probably count on them to score a minimum of 18 points.
Which, for the mathematical professors among us, means NSW will need to score more than 18 points to win the game.
So the question I repeat is, do NSW have enough points in them?
The loss of Jarryd Hayne is a massive blow, as he has a knack of scoring big tries against Queensland. His absence will be felt in many facets of the game, but none more so that his propensity to cross the try line.
Though the backline of Michael Jennings, Josh Morris, James McManus, Brett Morris and Josh Dugan has an abundance of try scoring ability, the issue once again will be providing them with opportunities. This obviously falls back upon the go-forward the pack provides, and then the chances the ball-players can create for their backs.
Sadly, when it comes to the forwards, NSW will be without the services of arguably the world’s best, with Paul Gallen ruled out via injury.
Even if Gallen was fit, halfback Mitchell Pearce, five-eighth James Maloney and hooker Robbie Farah hold the keys to the Blues’ attack. However, Pearce has been sub-par, Maloney was targeted by the Maroons and therefore neutralised in Game 2, and Farah has been asked to do too much, which has affected his attacking game.
The Blues have enough points in them, but only if these three fire.
Yet unless Pearce can suddenly become a good player, Maloney can find refuge in defence, and Farah can be freed up to fully utilise his skills, that’s not going to happen.
Are Queensland realistically any chance of losing?
After the opening game in Sydney – a 14-6 win by the Blues – I was quite optimistic that New South Wales could win the series.
However, it’s funny what a difference one game can make, because after the Maroons annihilated the Blues at Suncorp Stadium, my optimism has waned considerably.
There are numerous reasons why I’m not so bullish on a NSW victory tomorrow night, yet the most obvious one is that the Maroons are a great side, and contain many world-class players that can win a match for their team.
Johnathan Thurston, Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Greg Inglis will be remembered as some of the finest players to ever lace up a boot in rugby league.
Those superstars are ably supported by the likes of Matt Scott, Brent Tate, Darius Boyd, Sam Thaiday, Cooper Cronk, Justin Hodges and Corey Parker.
Who, in turn, are ably supported by a host of young talented Queenslanders.
There is a very good reason the Maroons are gunning for eight series victories in a row: they are a great, great side.
Can Queensland realistically lose tomorrow night? Of course they can. But form, history, talent, health and momentum are all on their side, and it would therefore be madness to bet against them.
Prediction:
The Blues will be without their best back, Jarryd Hayne, and their best forward, Paul Gallen. Both will be missed greatly, because the Blues don’t have a lot of superstars in the first place.
Greg Bird will play, but can’t be 100%.
NSW have also retained Mitchell Pearce in arguably the most important position on the park, and the halfback has done very little to fill fans with any confidence that he can lead the Blues to a series victory.
Robbie Farah, already being asked to do too much for NSW by leading the tackle count in both games and being required to do a lot of tactical kicking in general play, will be further burdened with responsibility after being named captain.
Combine these factors with Queensland’s greatness, and it’s hard to envisage a Blues victory.
No one would love a NSW win more than me, and though I remain hopeful the Blues can cause an upset, everything points towards a Queensland victory. Again.
Queensland Maroons 28
New South Wales Blues 10