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With seven rounds of the AFL season remaining, I am resting my roundly previews until the final round, as I preview each team’s chances of either finishing with the double chance, making the finals or avoiding the wooden spoon.
In part I, the teams that are in with a chance of finals will be previewed here.
The teams who can still make the finals, but very likely won’t, will feature in part II.
Hawthorn
Currently 1st (13 wins, 2 losses)
Matches to play: Western Bulldogs (home), Essendon (away), Richmond (home), St Kilda (away), Collingwood (home), North Melbourne (away), Sydney (away)
Predicted finish: 2nd
Hawthorn has the second-easiest run home of any team, just behind Geelong, but they may have some tricky matches against Essendon and Richmond coming up in the next three weeks.
Essendon are unbeaten since Round 10 and are away to GWS this weekend (I will be attending that match), a fixture in which they will be all but unbackable favourites.
As well as this, the Hawks will have a point to prove against Richmond in Round 19 – the two teams’ last meeting in Round 9 last year delivered a huge reality check for Alastair Clarkson’s men as they were thrashed to the tune of 62 points.
The Hawks’ destiny may also depend on its’ final round showdown against Sydney – a win would possibly lock up the minor premiership (on percentage), or a loss could see them lose the minor premiership to the Cats, who have the much easier run home.
Geelong Cats
Currently 2nd (13 wins, 2 losses)
Matches to play: Adelaide (away), St Kilda (home), North Melbourne (away), Port Adelaide (home), West Coast (away), Sydney (home), Brisbane Lions (home)
Predicted finish: 1st
Geelong have the easiest run home of all the teams and should be expected to breeze through the remainder of the season without being challenged.
They do, however, have a tricky final fortnight to overcome – the Sydney Swans did beat Geelong at Simonds Stadium only two years ago, whilst the Cats will be wary of their last meeting against the Brisbane Lions, against whom they surrendered a lead of more than 50 points to lose by less than a kick.
The Cats will also be very keen as to how the Hawks go – should Alastair Clarkson’s men slip up at some point, then the Cats will have that extra chance of trying to snatch the minor premiership from the Hawks.
Essendon
Currently 3rd (12 wins, 3 losses)
Matches to play: GWS Giants (away), Hawthorn (home), Collingwood (away), West Coast (home), North Melbourne (home), Carlton (away), Richmond (home)
Predicted finish: 4th
Essendon’s match against Greater Western Sydney this weekend presents a huge chance for the Bombers to boost their already healthy percentage.
The Dons have the chance to finish in the top four for the first time since 2001 (not taking into account the ASADA controversy which is expected to land the club massive penalties) but they do face tough fixtures against the Hawks, Pies and Blues in their run home.
A final round showdown against Richmond could also serve as a warm-up to the finals for both teams.
Sydney Swans
Currently 4th (11 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw)
Matches to play: West Coast (away), Richmond (home), Western Bulldogs (away), Collingwood (home), St Kilda (home), Geelong Cats (away), Hawthorn (home)
Predicted finish: 3rd
It seems the Sydney Swans’ premiership defence isn’t being tested on the field, rather, it’s been tested through the mounting injury toll which rates as one of the worst in the AFL this season.
The Swans’ mounting injury toll has allowed John Longmire to unleash new talent, and already we have seen the likes of Xavier Richards, Brandon Jack and Dean Rampe make an impression for the premiers at some stage this season.
Among those who will be missing for the Swans in the next month or so include Adam Goodes, Sam Reid, Ben McGlynn, Alex Johnson and Lewis Roberts-Thomson.
Johnson is already out for the season and LRT is also not expected to return at all this season.
The Swans have a relatively easy run home but they will be tested in the final fortnight; if all goes well and the Swans finish third, then the premiers could be in for a fortnight of facing the Hawks – first at home in the final round, and then in the first round of the finals series, with the latter to take place in Melbourne.
Fremantle
Currently 5th (11 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw)
Matches to play: Richmond (away), Adelaide (home), Carlton (away), GWS Giants (home), Melbourne (away), Port Adelaide (home), St Kilda (away)
Predicted finish: 5th
Only percentage is keeping the Fremantle Dockers out of the top four, so Ross Lyon’s men will have to hope that one of the Swans or Bombers slip up more than twice in the final seven rounds if they are to have any hope of finishing the season inside the top four.
The Dockers do have the luxury of having not yet played GWS, a match which would guarantee a huge percentage boost, as they try to close in on both the Swans and Bombers.
Among other matches, they must travel to Melbourne four times in the final seven rounds, including in the final round against St Kilda, and, as well as that, they will have no more home matches against Victorian opposition until at least the first week of the finals.
Richmond
Currently 6th (10 wins, 5 losses)
Matches to play: Fremantle (home), Sydney Swans (away), Hawthorn (away), Brisbane Lions (home), Carlton (home), GWS Giants (away), Essendon (away)
Predicted finish: 7th
For Richmond, the task is simple: win at least two or three of their remaining seven matches, and they are guaranteed finals for the first time since 2001.
Otherwise, the Tigers could risk finishing in the all-too-familiar position of ninth again – which, of course, would be a very heartbreaking result for the club, given the improvement the club has had this season.
The Tigers have it tough in the final seven weeks – after hosting Fremantle at home, the Tigers face last year’s Grand Finalists back-to-back, before finishing with what should be an easy four weeks where at least three victories are guaranteed.
The final round against Essendon could serve as a warm-up to the finals for both teams – assuming the Tigers have already locked up a finals berth by then.
Collingwood
Currently 7th (10 wins, 5 losses)
Matches to play: Gold Coast (away), GWS Giants (home), Essendon (home), Sydney Swans (away), Hawthorn (away), West Coast (home), North Melbourne (home)
Predicted finish: 6th
Just like Richmond, Collingwood will have to play both of last year’s Grand Finalists back-to-back in the final seven rounds of the season.
But the Pies’ next fortnight should guarantee victories – they head up north to face the Gold Coast Suns this weekend, and that is followed by what is expected to be one of the mis-matches of the year when they host the GWS Giants at home.
Among those, the Pies will also have to face Essendon, who swamped them on ANZAC Day earlier this year, as well as the Eagles and North Melbourne, both of which will round out their regular season.
Some good results could see them finish with a home elimination final, very likely to be against arch-rival Richmond.
Port Adelaide
Currently 8th (8 wins, 7 losses)
Matches to play: St Kilda (away), Brisbane Lions (home), Adelaide (away), Geelong Cats (away), Gold Coast (home), Fremantle (away), Carlton (home)
Predicted finish: 8th
Port Adelaide might find it tough trying to land its’ first finals berth since 2007 with the draw that it has in front of them.
The Power only have to leave Adelaide just twice after their showdown against St Kilda, which should guarantee a victory given the Saints’ poor season thus far.
But those two trips away are very tough ones – they travel to the Cattery where they have not won since 2007, and also fly out west to face a much-improved Fremantle in the penultimate round.
If the Power still remain in finals contention, along with Carlton, then the final round showdown between those two teams could decide the last place in the top eight.
Part II of the run home will feature the teams currently outside of the eight, and in that part I will preview their chances of sneaking into the finals, or trying to avoid the wooden spoon.
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