Being selected for the game at Sussex is more crucial for some than others, with Phillip Hughes, Steven Smith, Ed Cowan, James Faulkner, Matthew Wade, Nathan Lyon, Ashton Agar, Jackson Bird and Mitchell Starc all vying for inclusion in the third Ashes Test.
Between a rock and a hard place in terms of selections and up against a county currently sitting second in County Division 1 could be potential recipe for disaster for the Australians at Hove, and depending on how individuals perform there is the possibility that there could be a new look team at Old Trafford.
On the one hand, the selectors have taken a cautious approach, and the resting of Ryan Harris and Peter Siddle along with captain Michael Clarke and vice-captain Brad Haddin makes sense, whilst leaving Shane Watson and Chris Rogers in London is questionable and opens the door for a new look top six.
Combine that with the possibility that Hughes and Smith both fail, David Warner being in the runs in South Africa, Cowan leading the team and getting runs here, Wade putting in a positive performance and there is a potential headache for the selectors
We can safely say there are only five definites for the next Test: Clarke, Haddin, Usman Khawaja, Siddle and Harris. The official word will be that Watson and Rogers are both starters but leaving them in London, rather than letting them find their feet and form in a county game leaves them exposed.
Hughes and Smith will also need runs here and perhaps the selectors thinking is ‘we cannot afford for all four to fail’ and go to Old Trafford with the confidence of four of the top six in tatters.
Common sense says Hughes and Smith are both safe, but if Cowan plays one of his obdurate hands at Hove the selectors will find it hard to ignore. Out of the two, Smith is probably the safest given his improved tweaking and even with batting failures here will likely stay at number six, less so for Hughes.
If Cowan gets runs and he doesn’t, Hughes could find himself on the outer. And the same could possibly be said for Wade, but he’s not really in the mix and only a big hundred could change that.
The other factor in play is Warner. By producing the goods in Africa, he could be fast-tracked back into the team.
The selectors know they need to roll the dice and whilst he has been on the outer for the ‘biff’ in Birmingham, the Boof is a fan and he knows if Australia can make a good start they could be in the game. If that logic is followed then Rogers will be jettisoned, leaving Watson in situe (as much as for his bowling rather than current form with the bat).
Of course all of this may be a non-factor and the selectors will stick to the top six of Lords but Warner should play in the place of Rogers and Cowan could shore up the middle order if he gets runs in Hove and Hughes doesn’t.
On the bowling front there are fewer headaches. Faulkner could be a bolter depending on how he goes with both bat and ball but the third seamer spot is really just a showdown between Starc and Bird.
It’s not about who will take the most wickets but who shows the best control. On that basis highly likely Bird will get the nod. And the same seems to apply to the spinners.
If Lyon bowls with control and turns a couple, for all the romance of his first Test, Agar will dropped in favour of the more experienced campaigner.
Just another county game? It looks like the Sussex game is more crucial than the normal county fare on an Ashes tour.
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