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There are just five rounds remaining and as they say, anything could happen between then and now.
Two weeks ago, I delivered two parts to your team’s run home and predicted where they would finish on the ladder. That was with seven rounds remaining in the season.
In the two completed rounds that have been completed since, there have been a couple of surprises, such as Collingwood’s loss to the Gold Coast and Geelong’s late fade-out against Adelaide.
However, some of the predictions I made two weeks ago still remain on track, including two possible final round key matches: the Port Adelaide versus Carlton play-off for eighth place, and a two-leg showdown between Sydney and Hawthorn, to take place in Sydney and Melbourne.
Again, I will deliver this insight in two parts. This part will look at the teams currently in the eight; part two will look at the teams outside the eight.
Note that the predicted ladder finishes for each team below are on the assumption that Essendon are cleared by ASADA of alleged prohibited substance use during the 2012 season.
Hawthorn
Currently first (15 wins, 2 losses, 60 premiership points, 142.44%)
Matches to play: Richmond (home), St Kilda (away), Collingwood (home), North Melbourne (away), Sydney Swans (away)
Predicted finish: first
For Hawthorn, a second consecutive minor premiership beckons, but it’s theirs to lose with the Geelong Cats snapping at their heels.
The premiership favourites have a pretty easy run home, and if all goes to plan in the final round, they could be in for a two-leg showdown against the Sydney Swans in Sydney, which will be played on the Friday night in the final round.
That will be the only time in which they will have to travel outside of Victoria for (hopefully) the remainder of the year.
Assuming that Sydney do finish fourth at the end of the season, the two grand final combatants from last year will be in for another showdown in the first round of the finals – this time, in the Hawks’ much larger backyard which is the MCG.
Geelong Cats
Currently second (14 wins, 3 losses, 56 competition points, 136.85%)
Matches to play: North Melbourne (away), Port Adelaide (home), West Coast Eagles (away), Sydney Swans (home), Brisbane Lions (home)
Predicted finish: second
Mathematically, the minor premiership is still a possibility for the Geelong Cats, but they will have to hope that the Hawks slip up more than once in the final five rounds, as well as navigate through their final five matches undefeated.
The danger game that could arise is the Round 21 match against the West Coast Eagles. Even though the Eagles will be unlikely to make the finals this year, they can still cause some problems for the Cats, who have lost their last three matches in the west.
The Cats will also host the Sydney Swans and the Brisbane Lions in the final two rounds, and will also be wary of some past history against both teams.
In the past six years, the Swans are the only team to leave Geelong with four premiership points (in 2011), while the Lions produced a great 50-point comeback back in Round 13.
Ignoring past history, the Cats should account for their five remainders and try to put the heat on the Hawks in the race for the minor premiership.
Sydney Swans
Currently third (13 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw, 54 competition points, 143.91%)
Matches to play: Western Bulldogs (away), Collingwood (home), St Kilda (home), Geelong Cats (away), Hawthorn (home)
Predicted finish: fourth
The rest of the AFL competition has been put on notice following the Sydney Swans’ impressive 47-point victory over Richmond last week.
Five straight wins could potentially stretch to eight, before the defending premiers endure a difficult final fortnight which sees them head down the Cattery, which is then followed by the grand final rematch against Hawthorn, which will mark the first time that a regular season match is played at Sydney’s ANZ Stadium.
The match against the Hawks could be the first of two legs between the two teams; assuming that Sydney finishes fourth (and the Hawks first, OR the Swans third and the Hawks second), the two teams will be at it again in the first round of the finals, though this time it will be played in Melbourne.
Those matches aside, the Swans have only one more home match at their traditional SCG home, which is against fallen rivals St Kilda in Round 21. Their two other remaining home games are at ANZ Stadium, against Collingwood in Round 20 and the aforementioned final round showdown against Hawthorn.
Essendon
Currently fourth (13 wins, 4 losses, 52 competition points, 124.45%)
Matches to play: Collingwood (away), West Coast Eagles (home), North Melbourne (home), Carlton (away), Richmond (home)
Predicted finish: third
As Essendon’s judgement day looms, I am assessing their run home taking in the assumption that they will be cleared by ASADA of any wrong-doing in regards to the use of illegal supplements during the 2012 season.
But, dare I say it, the Bombers are probably doomed following Jobe Watson’s admission that he used a banned drug last season, on the television show “On the Couch” in June.
Onto the field now, and looking at their run home, they should breeze through their five remainders and set themselves up for a strong finals series.
The loss to Hawthorn last week was expected, but their inability to compete against the top three was brutally exposed in that defeat.
Three of their four defeats came against their fellow top four sides, and they will have no more chances this regular season to prove themselves as premiership contenders.
The danger game could come in the final round against Richmond – a side which has improved since their last meeting back in Round 9.
The Tigers were taught a lesson by the more experienced Bombers back then but that only served as a turning point to where they are now.
Fremantle
Currently fifth (12 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw, 50 competition points, 122.8%)
Matches to play: Carlton (away), GWS Giants (home), Melbourne (away), Port Adelaide (home), St Kilda (away)
Predicted finish: fifth
Fremantle just cannot wait for Sydney or Essendon to slip up (or in the case of the latter team, await the outcome of their ASADA investigation) if they want a double chance at the finals – the Dockers are the ones who have to perform if they want it.
Their run home is probably the easiest of them all, but they do face a danger game against Carlton this Saturday night. The Blues are still in finals contention but they must win if they are to have a chance of remaining afloat this season.
After that crunch match, the Dockers face the bottom two teams (GWS Giants and Melbourne), before rounding out their season against Port Adelaide at home and then St Kilda away.
The match against the Saints is scheduled for Saturday, August 31 at 1:45pm, so the Dockers can immediately fly back home to Perth after the match and start preparing for a likely home elimination final.
Richmond
Currently sixth (11 wins, 6 losses, 44 competition points, 113.28%)
Matches to play: Hawthorn (away), Brisbane Lions (home), Carlton (home), GWS Giants (away), Essendon (away)
Predicted finish: sixth
I didn’t mean to taunt Richmond supporters when I said that they could still finish ninth at the end of the season, in the wake of their 47-point loss to the Sydney Swans last week.
However, that is the reality still facing Richmond fans at the moment; even with an 11-6 record for the season, it still doesn’t mean that they have sealed a finals place just yet.
They do have a tough run home, as they face Hawthorn this week and Essendon in the final round.
Among those, however, are matches against the Brisbane Lions, Carlton and GWS – two victories from those three will have Richmond fans rushing to their nearest travel agent to cancel any holiday plans that they may have planned for September, in anticipation of another failed Richmond campaign.
In return, they will be rushing for tickets to see their team play finals for the first time since 2001 – and assuming all goes to plan, their elimination final will very likely be against Collingwood.
Collingwood
Currently seventh (11 wins, 6 losses, 44 competition points, 110.68%)
Matches to play: Essendon (home), Sydney Swans (away), Hawthorn (away), West Coast Eagles (home), North Melbourne (home)
Predicted finish: seventh
Collingwood may be level on points with Richmond but they are about to tackle a difficult three weeks ahead of them.
This week, they face Essendon in the Sunday twilight match, in what will be a key match for both teams as far as their finals hopes are concerned.
That is then followed by a double-up against last year’s grand finalists, both away games against the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn. Following that are home games against the West Coast Eagles and North Melbourne; victories from both matches will provide the Pies good stead as they prepare to play finals for an eighth consecutive year.
Port Adelaide
Currently eighth (10 wins, 7 losses, 40 competition points, 108.91%)
Matches to play: Adelaide Crows (away), Geelong Cats (away), Gold Coast Suns (home), Fremantle (away), Carlton (home)
Predicted finish: eighth
It’s all or nothing for Port Adelaide now.
The Power should treat every single match that remains in their regular season as a final; lose and their real finals hopes hangs at the mercy of Carlton, who are snapping furiously at their heels.
Ken Hinkley’s men have tough away trips to Geelong and Perth, mixed in with easy rubbers against Adelaide and the Gold Coast Suns, both home games.
Should the Power’s finals berth not yet be confirmed by Round 23, then the final ever match at AAMI Stadium against Carlton could be somewhat of a “qualifying match” to see which team finishes the season in the eight, and thus earn a trip to Perth to face the Dockers in the elimination final.
This will make for an intriguing conclusion to what has been a massive season of improvement from the Power.
In Part II, I will look at the teams currently outside the eight, and look at their chances of salvaging their seasons.
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