While last weekend’s Sunshine Swing may have raised an eyebrow somewhere, you can pretty much lock in the Perth Wildcats and Adelaide 36ers as this NBL season’s top two.
At the very least, you can forget about them not making the finals from here.
After that though, who knows?
As we enter the last round before the break formerly reserved for the All-Star Game, you can’t rule out any of the remaining six teams playing finals.
The Sydney Kings and Melbourne Tigers occupy third and fourth. But they’ve been hit and miss since the acquisitions of big name imports Sam Young and Mustapha Farrakhan respectively.
The Kings, in third place, are struggling the most. Young’s arrival meant Jesse Sanders departed, which itself meant Charles Carmouche was moved to point guard.
In the three games since, the Kings offence has produced scores of 55, 67 and 69. The highest post-import-swap score of A.J. Ogilvy, who was averaging 18 points prior, has been 10 points.
Obviously the introduction of a player straight from the NBA means that things will be run a bit differently. Young is now the main weapon and that’s absolutely the way it should be.
But you suspect Ogilvy averaging less than eight points a game is not at all part of Shane Heal’s blueprint.
There’s a way to go before the Kings are playing at their full potential and it becomes a question of how far they’ll slip before the inevitable turnaround comes.
Make no mistake though, there will be a turnaround. A team that includes the likes of Young, Ogilvy and Madgen shouldn’t be able to fall too far off the pace.
The Tigers are going through a phase of not just accommodating Farrakhan but also attempting to reduce their reliance on Chris Goulding.
It’s something Chris Anstey spoke about a few weeks ago and since then, their form has understandably been a bit patchy. The Tigers are 4-0 when Goulding scores more than 25, so kicking the habit is easier said than done.
The past three weeks have seen Melbourne drop two games and grind out two close wins against the Kings and Breakers.
Now, if you adopt a long-term view, seeing two teams going through short-term pain for long-term gain yet with both still clinging on to top four spots can lead to the assumption those teams are in the box seat.
However, Townsville’s import combo and Aussie point guard Steve Markovic continue to surprise sceptics. Plus, the Crocs have only played nine games – the lowest in the comp – so they’ve got room to move starting with a double this weekend.
Both Townsville and the New Zealand Breakers are on four wins, one behind Sydney and Melbourne. The Breakers are starting to get things together, even if they couldn’t muster a win from their two games last weekend.
The challenge is that they’ve played 12 games – the most – so there are factors working against them. But this is the reigning three-peat champions we are talking about.
Cairns and Wollongong are one game further back, but both had confidence-boosting wins last weekend and it’s not unreasonable to suggest both have more attractive looking form than Sydney and Melbourne right now.
If you adopt a wide view, all six of the remaining teams are decent candidates for the remaining two slots.
It’s just a question of who can rise above the pack. That means for the time being, every NBL game has plenty on the line.
The Sydney Kings have successfully defended their NBL crown.
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