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It’s round four of the Six Nations this weekend and each remaining match is vital to the outcome of the overall championship.
Ireland, England, Wales and France sit level at the top of the championship, with points for and against the final decider if teams end up level.
Ireland currently have a points differential of +42, England +21, Wales +6 and France +1, which gives Ireland a big advantage with two matches remaining.
Ireland v Italy
First up, Ireland host Italy at the Aviva Stadium and Ireland have the opportunity to put pressure on the other three leading teams by securing a win with a good margin of victory.
Italy are coming off the back of a last up loss to Scotland. This match was always going to be a hard enough task for Italy but with their best player, Sergio Parisse, ruled out things just got a lot tougher.
Italian coach Jacques Brunel has made several other changes – of particular note is a new combination in the halves. There are suspicions that Brunel is saving his best team for their final match of the tournament when they host England at home, but he’s denied this is the case.
Ireland have named a near full strength team, despite there being concerns that Johnny Sexton would not recover in time for this match – particularly from his club in France.
Impressive flanker, Peter O’Mahony, has been ruled out but Irish coach, Joe Schmidt, has said that if this match was a decider, they would have risked him playing so he should only miss this match.
The match will see Brian O’Driscoll break George Gregan’s record for Test appearances when he plays his 140th international match. He’s been a fantastic player and deserves all the accolades he’ll receive for this achievement.
It’s hard to see Italy springing a surprise in this one and I’m tipping Ireland to win by 20-plus.
Scotland v France
Scotland host the unpredictable France and coach Scott Johnson has again made a number of changes as he searches for a combination that will make his Scottish team competitive against the leading nations.
Former captain, Kelly Brown, returns to the side at openside flanker despite many believing that his best position is blindside flanker. His return comes after he was dropped completely from the squad for the second match of the championship and with his return, he resumes the captaincy.
It’s hard to understand what he was able to do in such a short space of time away to convince Johnson that he should be recalled straight to the starting team, unless Johnson realises he made an error.
Dave Denton, who many believed was Scotland’s best player early in the championship, was also demoted for the previous match but returns to the starting No. 8 position.
Geoff Cross will start at tighthead prop after coming off the bench against Italy in the previous match, where by all reports, he scrummaged well.
The French were quite ordinary in their last match against Wales, and with a couple of injuries as well coach Phillip Saint-Andre has rung the changes with seven new faces included for this match.
One of the players to miss out is Louis Picamoles, who has been stood down for showing dissent towards the referee in the last match when he was yellow carded. It’s a strong response from the coach and one that I think should be applauded.
Any match involving France can be a hard one to tip but I think they’ll have too much flair for Scotland and am predicting a French victory by 15-plus.
England v Wales
The final match of the round looks like it will be the best with England hosting Wales at Twickenham.
After the match between the two teams in the championship last year where Wales thumped England 30-3 to secure the overall championship victory, England are intent on payback.
Wales were disappointing in their performance against Ireland in round one but looked a lot better against France last match. They are obviously keen to show they are still a top side.
The Welsh have been buoyed by the return of Jonathan Davies to partner Jamie Roberts in the centres and I expect that their combination will be a key in the match.
England will be without Billy Vunipola for the rest of the championship and he’s replaced by Ben Morgan.
This year England’s attack has been built on the go-forward Vunipola has generated for them. Morgan is himself a strong runner but is not as dynamic as Vunipola, so how he performs will be a key for England.
The battle of the hookers, Dylan Hartley and Richard Hibbard, also looks like it will be a good match-up.
I think England’s pack looks a little stronger than Wales but the Welsh midfield probably offers an advantage over England.
One player Wales will have to pay close attention to is English fullback Mike Brown, who has been in outstanding form.
This is a match that many of us have been anticipating for some time and I don’t think it will disappoint. I expect a very close match and it’s a toss of the coin as to who will emerge victorious.
Forced to make a choice, I think Wales can challenge England and will just get home on the back a big performance from Jamie Roberts.