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With Ewen McKenzie announcing his Wallabies squad on Thursday for the upcoming Tests against France, there is plenty of speculation around who’ll be selected.
Should McKenzie be picking a squad with players based on who he expects to play in the 2015 Rugby World Cup? Should this squad be used to develop a team for the Bledisloe and Rugby Championship Tests coming up later in the year?
Or should it be selected to win the series against France?
If you think the focus should be on the French series, you’ll probably think that the more experienced players should be selected – given there is very limited preparation time for the squad before the first Test.
If you think the focus should be on next year’s World Cup, you may think that a fair number of new players who’ve shown potential should be introduced now to allow time for them to develop within an international setup.
If you think the focus should be on the two Bledisloe Tests this year, you may think that the French series should be used to mix and match to see who really are the best options.
McKenzie doesn’t have the luxury of choosing one or even two of those options – he’s got to juggle all three. There’s no way that the ARU or Australian rugby fans would be prepared to underachieve in the French series in return for a potential gain at some point in the future.
Let’s consider the makeup of the initial 32-man squad. There will be a starting fifteen selected plus a full backup team so there’s a replacement for every position, plus two extras for the specialist positions halfback and hooker. That makes seventeen forwards and fifteen backs.
That squad makeup will allow the starting team to practice against a competitive fifteen and that will be very important in the preparation to simulate match scenarios.
Given the limited preparation time available, the training sessions are unlikely to be used for selection purposes. The starting team will already be known when the team arrives in camp.
The team assembles on Sunday June 1. Fortunately none of the players have to travel back from South Africa after playing for their respective Super Rugby teams and none of those matches are being played on the Sunday – the Force and Waratahs are both playing in New Zealand that weekend while the Reds, Brumbies and Rebels are all playing in Australia.
With players having played a Super Rugby match that weekend, the amount of training that can be done on Monday will be limited to allow for recovery time. Only limited physical work will be undertaken.
The Friday before the Test match is used for the Captains Run, but no other real field work.
That leaves three days of on-field training to prepare the team for the first Test – none of that limited time will be wasted on considering players for selection in the starting team, although some bench spots may be decided on Tuesday.
Monday will be used to walk through game plans, structures and set-piece combinations. The players will be coming from different teams who use different game plans that they’ve been practicing and playing with for six months, so there is a lot to learn or re-familiarise themselves with in one day before on-field training commences.
As a result there are likely to be very few changes to the game plans and structures used on the end of year tour last year, to minimise the learning that has to be done. McKenzie would therefore want to have as many of the team that played together on that tour starting the first Test.
One of those players would have been Quade Cooper, but with his injury the Wallabies now have even more work to do to integrate a new playmaker into the side. Existing combinations are therefore very important – if Cooper had been fit I’ve no doubt the inside backs would have been Will Genia, Cooper and Matt Toomua.
However, with Cooper out the first decision to be made in team selection will be the fly-half, as the team will have to be rebuilt around that player. Starting with a new fly-half will increase the amount of time required to form combinations which greatly increases the chances of Toomua being selected in that position. He played some Tests in that position last year for the Wallabies and when Cooper left the field.
I can’t see either Kurtley Beale or Bernard Foley starting at fly-half as that would be starting from scratch and there just isn’t time to do that.
If that is the case it won’t surprise me at all if we see the Brumbies inside backs selected – Nic White, Toomua and Christian Lealiifano.
However, Genia is so much more experienced in international rugby that he may still be preferred over White.
Given the limited preparation time, you’ll see the core of players who played on last year’s end of year tour selected.
Both Adam Ashley-Cooper and Tevita Kuridrani have played at number thirteen within the existing structures so either could secure that position.
Israel Folau is the certainty at fullback as is Michael Hooper at number seven.
Nic Cummins needs no introduction to the team, nor does Scott Fardy, so will both start.
In the front row James Slipper, Stephen Moore and Ben Alexander already have an established combination so they will hit the ground running.
Keeping one eye on next year’s World Cup will mean that Ben Mowen and Kane Douglas aren’t selected in the starting team. A new lineout caller in Rob Simmons will be installed.
James Horwill and Scott Higginbotham would be obvious choices to start as they are familiar with Simmons’ calling – that would mean Fardy is the only player who needs to get used to a new caller.
The limited preparation and disruption caused by Cooper’s absence may mean that the only significant decisions to be made in the starting fifteen are halfback, outside centre and one wing spot. If Kuridrani is selected at thirteen (which I suspect he will be) Ashley-Cooper will fill that wing spot.
The bench positions offer the opportunity to bring in new players or to reintroduce others such as Kurtley Beale, but don’t be surprised if there aren’t as many changes to the starting team as many are predicting.