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At the end of Round 11, we have a very interesting and unpredictable ladder.
If anyone at the start of the season had said that Port Adelaide would have been on top and the Suns would ahead of the Cats on percentages, I would have thought they were crazy.
But after 11 rounds the ladder looks like this:
1. Port Adelaide
2. Hawthorn
3. Sydney
4. Collingwood
5. Gold Coast
6. Geelong
7. Fremantle
8. North Melbourne
9. Adelaide
10. Essendon
11. West Coast
12. Carlton
13. Richmond
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Melbourne
16. St Kilda
17. GWS
18. Brisbane
From here, I have deduced what the ladder will look like at the end of the season
1. Port Adelaide face a couple of big games against Collingwood and Fremantle away, but other than that should win most of their games and march into top spot.
2. Hawthorn have an easy few weeks, which is handy because they will get key players back for key games against Sydney, Fremantle and Geelong later in the season.
3. Fremantle would be favourites in their next nine games of footy, before they face their bunnies Geelong for a second time. Have big tests against Hawthorn and Port Adelaide later in the season, but they are at home so they could pull off an upset.
4. Sydney face Port twice and Hawthorn as well in what is a very tough run home. Would be very lucky to make top four.
5. Geelong miss out the top four on percentage behind Fremantle and Sydney. Have tough games against Freo and Hawthorn before the end of the season.
6. Collingwood have Hawthorn twice in the run home. Add in tough games against Port, a trip West to face the Eagles and a trip to the Gold Coast, and the eight is no lock for the Pies. Ten of their remaining games are in Melbourne, which will help.
7. North Melbourne face Geelong later in the season. Otherwise it’s a very winnable draw for the Kangas. Finals are a must.
8. Gold Coast have a very tough six weeks coming up, playing Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Collingwood as well as flights to play the Crows and the Eagles. After those six games they have a reasonably easy finish to the season and could scrape into the eight on percentages.
9. Essendon play Geelong, Port and the Swans later in the season, but otherwise it’s a winnable draw and they could push for finals.
10. West Coast have Hawthorn and Freo in the next month and face the Swans and Collingwood later in the season, though they are at home. They could push for the eight if they can knock off a couple of those sides.
11. Adelaide have a trip west to face Freo this week before a tough month which includes the ‘Showdown’ against Port, Hawthorn and Collingwood. Will need to win at least two of those games plus every other game to push for the eight.
12. Carlton have a very tough draw in which they play all of the top-six sides, but are probably too far back to make a run for the top.
13. Richmond to finish well down the table, though at least it’s not ninth. Unfortunately for the Tigers, it’s not going to be their year. Have the Swans twice and also Freo, Port and North Melbourne.
14. Western Bulldogs aren’t going to get things any easier. They face Port, Collingwood, Sydney, Hawthorn and the Cats, plus a Gold Coast side which recently beat them convincingly.
15. Melbourne have improved under Paul Roos, but they still won’t have the class to beat Freo, Geelong, Hawthorn or West Coast (away).
16. St Kilda will struggle to win many games. In fact, I cannot see them winning a single game from here. They may beat the Bulldogs, but it is unlikely.
17. Brisbane Lions fans rejoice, you shouldn’t finish bottom of the ladder. Still to play the Dockers (twice), the Cats in Geelong and Collingwood, but have winnable games against GWS, the Bulldogs and the Dees. Every chance of jumping in front of the Saints too.
18. GWS. Have the AFL’s new guys gone backwards? On the back of the past few weeks you’d have to say yes. The only game I see them potentially winning is against Brisbane.
Also could have the lowest percentage ever if things keep going the way they are. Have the Hawks, Cats, Freo and Swans (can’t see a repeat of Round 1 occurring) still to come.
So there you have it the ladder at the end of the 2014 season.
If it eventuates like this, the first week of finals would look like:
Qualifying Final 1: Port Adelaide V Sydney (Adelaide Oval)
Qualifying Final 2: Hawthorn V Fremantle (MCG)
Elimination Final 1: Geelong V Gold Coast (Simonds Stadium?)
Elimination Final 2: Collingwood V North Melbourne (MCG)
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