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To many I’m sure it might seem absurd to consider right now, but Geelong is unlikely to figure at the business end of the AFL season.
Absurd because they are currently making their home in the top four, just percentages away from second spot.
Absurd because they have lost only three of their 11 matches in 2014, and those were against the top sides: Port Adelaide, Sydney Swans and the Fremantle Dockers.
But the signs have been there for a little while now. Strangely it was evident more so last Friday night when they defeated Carlton than when they were humiliated by 110 points at hands of the Swans the week before.
For starters, the Cats of old – and I use that term instead of the ‘old Cats’, a phrase more apt to a handful of the current team – would have never whimpered to a 20-goal defeat as the team did in Sydney. That is regardless of injuries, absentees, or any other extenuating circumstances.
But, just for a moment, let’s pretend they did. What would you expect the following week? The bounce back effect would be enormous. Pity the poor opponents.
And for a stretch that was exactly what looked like happening.
After trailing a determined Carlton early, the Cats went whoosh, and with nine of the next dozen goals, at the midway mark of the third term, they led by 24 points and were in the process of blowing the game apart.
The Cats of old would have, but the Cats of today? Their fans rightfully will argue they showed great spirit and character to climb off the mat, having fallen a couple of goals behind in the final quarter, to snatch a victory in the dying seconds.
Sure, great spirit and character – but what were they doing in that position? It was Carlton they were playing, not one of the competition’s elite.
They similarly fell over the line against Richmond – yes Richmond – a few weeks earlier.
There are signs that Geelong, while still poised on a lofty ladder rung, will be no match for the real contenders when September rolls around.
It had to happen. The Cats have done remarkably well to still be a winning club after such a long time – virtually a decade – at the top, and have tried to blend youth into their team to offset the ageing of their superstars. But I’m not sold on it having totally worked right now.
Don’t get me wrong. Melbourne fans, St Kilda fans and certainly Richmond fans, would all love to have a team fourth on the ladder with eight wins from 11. But for a long time the Cats haven’t been about just making the finals.
They have been all about winning the whole thing, every year, and while I think they will make the finals again, possibly the top four with luck and favourable results, I can’t see them winning it.
You can look at the stats of these Cats and the ones of the past, and what will they tell you?
Well, not a lot when it comes to key areas. In contested possessions in 2014, they average 142 a game. This is fifth in the competition. Last year they averaged 145 and were fifth, and when they won the flag in 2011, they averaged 153 and were third.
As for effective disposals, in 2014 they averaged 72.1, putting them ninth in the AFL. In 2013 it was 72.3 and seventh, and in 2011, 73.7 and third. It is a small slide, but hardly significant.
Contested marks, now it’s 11.8 putting them second. Last year it was 12, putting them third. In 2011 it was 16.3 – the best in the league.
I can go on in numerous categories – clangers, marks inside 50, tackles, one percenters and so on. They are all so very similar.
The only glaring difference this season is goal accuracy. In 2011, the Cats were third at 52.6 per cent. Last year they were sixth at 51 per cent. These current Cats are last in the competition at just 45.9 per cent.
But so what, right? They are still kicking good enough scores to win games and are still winning and when they get the finals – and they will – the experience they have built and knowing how to win big games will be a huge advantage.
I would have agreed in the past, but suddenly this year, I don’t see the same intimidating Cats I have for so many seasons in the past.
And if I don’t, chances are many of their opponents won’t either.
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