The halfway mark of the season is a good time to evaluate the list of contenders, especially those looking to challenge the established order such as Port, North and to a lesser extent the Suns.
It’s also a good time for those in the bottom half to start planning for a slow and steady rise back up the ladder.
So what is it that sets apart the top sides from the rest?
While the debate on compromised drafts, culture, football department budgets and the not-so equal fixture can be debated at length, I thought I’d look to the stats to see what makes a top four team.
While the game continues to evolve with stats, and some are definitely more useful than others, is there any one or two stats that are consistent with the top teams from one season to the next?
A quick look at the ladder positions and respective statistics over the past three years may just suggest they’re not all that useful.
In 2011 the top four was Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn and West Coast, with the Blues finishing fifth. So what set these sides apart?
Was it there disposal efficiency – Richmond was ranked No. 2 and Melbourne No. 5 for the year in this category, with Hawthorn, Collingwood and Geelong featuring in the top five.
Both Hawthorn and Geelong finished well down the list on clearances that year and eventual premiers Geelong couldn’t even crack the top 10 for stoppages.
The two categories with the most consistent number of top five sides at the top of the list were contested possessions and marks inside 50. The two grand finalists, Geelong and Collingwood, finished one and two for marks inside 50 and two and three for contested possessions.
In 2012 we saw Adelaide and Sydney rise up the ladder with Hawthorn and Collingwood also in the top four. All bar Hawthorn, who also didn’t feature in the top five contested possessions for 2011, made up the top three teams for contested possessions, but only the Crows and Hawthorn made the top five in marks inside 50. Clearances saw three of the top four sides fill the top places.
In 2013 the Swans topped the list for highest average contested possessions for the third year running, but interestingly out of the top four sides – Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle and Sydney – the Swans and Geelong were the only ones in the top five.
Premiers Hawthorn finished in the top two in marks inside 50, inside 50s, goal-kicking accuracy and disposal efficiency. They were however well down in the areas of contested possession (eight), contested marks (nine), clearances (seven) and stoppages (ten). Runners up Fremantle only finished in the top five for in goal kicking accuracy (fourth) and stoppages (fifth).
So what does this tell us? A number of the bottom teams have a strong focus on winning the contested ball and clearances or stoppages in an attempt to replicate the successful sides such as Geelong and Sydney. Many consider Fremantle’s big-bodied mids as a prototype for future success.
Despite the combination of a strong midfield and a dominant ruckman, Fremantle did not rank inside the top 10 in clearances during this period and have only managed a high of fifth overall in average stoppages.
Clearly Sydney are a top side and in 2011, 2012 and 2013 have been ranked first in contested possession, clearances and stoppages for all bar clearances in 2012, when they were third. However Hawthorn have had just as much success, if not more, by playing a completely different style with plenty of outside run, high disposal efficiency and accurate goal kicking and having finished no higher than sixth in contested possessions.
Stats can be deceiving – The Hawks are ranked top so far this year on average clearances and stoppages, and sit third for contested possessions. Port Adelaide top inside 50s and goal-kicking accuracy, but are well off the pace for contested possession, clearances and stoppages. The Swans sit outside the top five in clearances and stoppages.
The game is constantly analysed and rated, and stats are thrown around to support theories on why a team is under-performing or excelling, but in the end there is more than one style that is successful. The true value of a team comes down to the style that suits the list and that unmeasurable factor – team work.
Game styles are an ever-evolving process and the variety of top teams featuring (or not featuring) among the top-ranked teams in some statistic categories support the fact of an ever-evolving game with more than one formula for success.
It comes down to the flexibility and adaptability of sides to be able to adjust to new trends in the game and work out a strategy to stay ahead of the pack. Any of the bottom teams looking to replicate a style or formula that is successful now may find the method is quickly outdated and they get left behind. Just ask Richmond!
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