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With seven rounds remaining in the regular season, the race for the finals is starting to heat up, as well as the battles to claim a coveted double chance in the finals, and avoid the wooden spoon.
This analysis will be divided into two parts. This part will preview the teams currently in the eight, part two will look at the teams outside of it.
Let’s now take a look at the current top eight and predict where they will finish by season’s end.
Sydney Swans
Currently first (12-3, 48 competition points, 138.8 per cent)
Matches to play: Carlton (SCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Essendon (SCG), Port Adelaide (Oval), St Kilda (SCG), Western Bulldogs (ES), Richmond (ANZ)
The Swans are the form team of the competition. Their 11-match winning streak, which dates back to April, should extend to 12 when they welcome Carlton to the SCG this Saturday night.
Following that, and a bye made possible by the fact that Round 18 is a split round, the Swans will have two tough away matches against Hawthorn and Port Adelaide on either side of a Friday night match against Essendon.
The match against the Bombers at home could also be considered a danger match, given they upset Port Adelaide at the Oval last week and are among the number of teams pushing for a place in the bottom half of the eight.
After the game against Port, the Swans will have three easy lead-in matches to the finals, against St Kilda, the Western Bulldogs and Richmond, who currently sit last, 14th and 12th on the ladder respectively.
The two matches against Hawthorn and Port Adelaide could determine where the Swans finish on the ladder. Losses to both teams could potentially cost Sydney a home qualifying final, but a win over either will all but lock up a top-two finish.
Predicted finish: third
Hawthorn
Currently second (11-4, 44 competition points, 142 per cent)
Matches to play: Adelaide Crows (AO), Sydney Swans (MCG), Western Bulldogs (AS), Melbourne (MCG), Fremantle (PS), Geelong Cats (MCG), Collingwood (MCG)
The Hawks’ bid to claim the minor premiership took a hit last week when, on the coaching return of Alastair Clarkson after five matches out due to illness, they suffered an ill-disciplined 20-point loss to North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium.
It marked just their fourth defeat for the season and with danger matches against the in-form Adelaide Crows and Sydney Swans looming on either side of a week’s break, the Hawks must bounce back quickly or risk missing out on the double chance.
The Hawks have to face the Cats in the penultimate round, a match which could decide if they finish in the top four or not, especially with Fremantle also in pursuit of a top-four finish.
Predicted finish: fourth
Port Adelaide
Currently third (11-4, 44 competition points, 139.4 per cent)
Matches to play: Richmond (ES), Melbourne (Oval), Collingwood (MCG), Sydney Swans (Oval), Gold Coast Suns (MS), Carlton (Oval), Fremantle (PS)
After an explosive first half of the season, Port Adelaide have lost three of their last four matches, including against Essendon by two points at home last week.
Their slump also included a narrow loss to the Swans, whom the Power will meet again in the run to the finals, at the SCG, as well as a shock loss in the Showdown against the Adelaide Crows.
Ken Hinkley’s men play the Tigers, who are coming off consecutive victories for the first time this season, at Etihad Stadium this weekend. That is followed by matches against Collingwood, the aforementioned rematch against the Sydney Swans, the Gold Coast Suns on the holiday strip, Carlton at home and finally Fremantle in Perth.
In a strong position to finish in the top two.
Predicted finish: second
Fremantle
Currently fourth (11-4, 44 competition points, 137.3 per cent)
Matches to play: GWS Giants (PS), St Kilda (ES), Carlton (PS), Geelong Cats (SS), Hawthorn (PS), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Port Adelaide (PS)
After dividing their win-loss column in the first eight rounds, Fremantle are peaking at the right time and their percentage will come into play when it comes to determining whether they finish in the top four.
The Dockers’ healthy percentage should receive a huge boost over the next month with matches against bottom-six sides GWS, St Kilda and Carlton. A tough fortnight follows, where their top-four credentials will be put to the test against the Cats in Geelong and the Hawks at home. Last year’s qualifying final aside, the Dockers haven’t won at Geelong since 2005 and haven’t beaten the Hawks anywhere since 2010, so losses to both of those teams could dent their percentage and cost them the double chance.
After that, the Dockers face the Brisbane Lions in Brisbane, and then Port Adelaide at home in the final round.
Any loss between now and the end of the season will prove costly to the Dockers, so they must continue their good form if they are to claim the coveted double chance. Unfortunately, I have them just missing the top four.
Predicted finish: fifth
Geelong Cats
Currently fifth (11-4, 44 competition points, 107.5 per cent)
Matches to play: Melbourne (MCG), GWS Giants (SPO), North Melbourne (ES), Fremantle (SS), Carlton (ES), Hawthorn (MCG), Brisbane Lions (SS)
Despite their unusually lower-than-expected percentage, caused by heavy away losses to the Sydney Swans and Gold Coast Suns, the Cats still remain in contention for the double chance.
The Cats have arguably the easiest run home, with their percentage set for a boost when they play Melbourne this week and then the GWS Giants at Spotless Stadium the following week.
However, the Cats have only two matches left at home this season, against fellow top-four contenders Fremantle and the second-last placed Brisbane Lions in Rounds 20 and 23 respectively.
There’s also the traditional grudge match against Hawthorn that the Cats players and fans look forward to with the greatest optimism, given they have won 12 of their last 13.
The Cats will be expected to win most, if not all, their remaining matches, and should other results go their way, they could finish the season as minor premiers for the first time since 2008.
Predicted finish: first
Collingwood
Currently sixth (9-6, 36 competition points, 112.7per cent)
Matches to play: Essendon (MCG), Adelaide Crows (MCG), Port Adelaide (MCG), West Coast (PS), Brisbane Lions (MCG), GWS Giants (SPO), Hawthorn (MCG)
Collingwood’s top-two hopes took a hit when they suffered a five-point loss to an injury-hit Suns on the Gold Coast last weekend.
Five of the Pies’ last seven matches are at the MCG, but they aren’t guaranteed to extract victories, with tricky matches against the South Australian sides, as well as Hawthorn, among those matches.
They will also have to travel to Perth and Sydney for their only meetings against the West Coast Eagles and GWS Giants in Rounds 20 and 22 respectively, however the latter match should guarantee a percentage boost.
If the Pies can win at least five of their remainders then they should qualify for the finals for the ninth year running.
Predicted finish: seventh
North Melbourne
Currently seventh (9-6, 36 competition points, 110.9 per cent)
Matches to play: St Kilda (BA), Carlton (ES), Geelong Cats (ES), GWS Giants (SO), Western Bulldogs (ES), Adelaide Crows (BA), Melbourne (ES)
North Melbourne have endured inconsistent form throughout the season, mixing impressive victories over top teams with unexpected losses against teams below them on the ladder.
The Roos recorded their fourth victory over a top-four side from as many matches when they impressively defeated the Hawks at Etihad Stadium last week. This came after they suffered a shock four-point loss to the second-last Brisbane Lions at the Gabba six nights earlier.
They have also defeated both the West Coast Eagles and Fremantle in Perth, the Sydney Swans in Sydney and Port Adelaide at home, but also suffered disappointing losses to the Adelaide Crows away in Round 13, Essendon in Round 1 and the Gold Coast Suns in Round 7.
The Roos only have to face one top-eight team (the Geelong Cats) in their run home, and will also play at their old part-time home when they face the GWS Giants in Canberra.
But the question remains – can Brad Scott’s men take full advantage of their easy draw and make the finals for the second time in three years?
Predicted finish: sixth
Gold Coast Suns
Currently eighth (9-6, 36 competition points, 101.5 per cent)
Matches to play: Western Bulldogs (CAZ), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), St Kilda (MS), Carlton (ES), Port Adelaide (MS), Essendon (ES), West Coast Eagles (MS)
Now that the Gold Coast Suns have surpassed their best season in their four-year existence, a new challenge awaits – playing out the remainder of the home-and-away season without their skipper, Gary Ablett.
Ablett’s absence will be a cruel blow to their chances of reaching the finals for the first time after entering the competition in 2011. They do, however, have some winnable games coming up against the Western Bulldogs in Cairns and the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba a fortnight later.
The Suns should win at least five of their seven remainders, and hope that the Adelaide Crows don’t continue their recent good form in which they have won four matches on the trot.
The Crows, whose chances will be previewed in Part 2, have a superior percentage to the Suns, and after a slow start to their season are furiously chasing a finals berth.
Unfortunately, I feel the Suns will fall just short, which would be a heartbreaking result given how much they have improved this year.
Predicted finish: ninth
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