Even if you had spent the past month in a cave or on Mars, it has been hard to avoid the debate that has raged on Gary Ablett’s injury and what that means for his Brownlow medal chances.
History has said that missing seven matches throughout a season is enough to write Ablett out of contention.
With season-ending surgery now completed, Ablett, like the rest of us, can only sit and wait to watch the final seven rounds of the season play out.
Unlike us though, Ablett will still be waiting on Brownlow night, wondering just who can catch him. These are the seven guys he will be watching closely until then.
7. Joel Selwood (Geelong)
If you asked Ablett which player he would most like to see win the medal, it is Selwood. He said as much last year in his acceptance speech when he made mention of his former Geelong teammate.
Selwood himself has probably had a down season by his own lofty standards in that he has had a number of below average games. However, this has been mixed in with some brilliant ones and history suggests this is a positive omen because players don’t necessarily win the Brownlow in their best seasons. It is more about grabbing three votes, which is what Selwood could do.
In terms of the count there would be a sense of theatre and irony if Selwood was able to go over the top of Ablett in the last game of the season, just as Ablett had done to Selwood a year earlier.
6. Callan Ward (Greater Western Sydney)
A couple of seasons ago the thought of a team that won less than 10 games winning a Brownlow medal was absurd. At the start of the millennium the Brownlow was dictated by grand final teams.
However the momentum has turned, and now dominance in a lesser side is more prominent then doing a role in a contender. So Ward, despite his Giants only winning a handful of games, still has to be considered.
He has been the standout in a number of the Giants wins and as Ablett showed a year ago in an expansion club, being the standout in a heavy loss can still be enough to get the ones and twos that a Brownlow medal winner needs.
5. Lance Franklin (Sydney)
While Ablett is looking to break history by winning the Brownlow after missing seven games, Franklin too will have to defy recent history. Tony Lockett the last pure forward to win the Brownlow medal in more than 25 years.
However, Franklin is just as big an icon and recognisable player in the game, and after a much publicised move to Sydney in the last off-season odds are high that he is front and centre of the umpire’s eyes. He will have teammates to go up against, but a good game from Franklin is a guaranteed three votes. He has a handful of them already.
4. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
In some ways Boak would be considered a bland winner, but it would be a great story if the player who rejected Geelong after Ablett left for the Gold Coast ended up beating the player he was to set to replace.
Boak has overcome a lot in his time with the Power and his decision to remain at the club in 2012 was the start of what has become an iconic run by a group of underdogs. Short of raising a premiership cup on grand final day this would be testament to the sacrifice of the individual.
3. Trent Cotchin (Richmond)
A proven vote-getter, Cotchin has overcome a rough start to the season to be grab votes at will since the Ablett injury. Another candidate who has had big games in an underwhelming year, the story of Cotchin winning would be seen as retribution for getting so close over the past two seasons.
He is another club captain who has faced scrutiny both on and off field, and would be considered a popular winner.
2. Josh Kennedy (Sydney)
If not for the well noted fact that Kennedy has failed to attract a high number of votes in his career so far, he would probably be considered the runaway favourite given he is the undoubted midfield leader in the odds on premiership favourite.
Theoretically Kennedy has the style that would seem to attract votes. A big bodied midfielder who wins the ball in close, is at the bottom of the back, racks up high possession numbers and kicks goals. However, theory and reality have been two different things in the curious case of Josh Kennedy so far. In what could be a curious Brownlow medal count, Kennedy polling 30 votes to win in a landslide would be another curiosity.
1. Nathan Fyfe (Fremantle)
In terms of story nothing could top Fyfe being the only player that could best Ablett on Brownlow night. It is a tantalising prospect as to how the public and media will react if Fyfe polls the most votes yet Ablett wins his third medal.
Is the story Ablett winning three? Is the story the match review panel ending Fyfe’s chances? Is the story a one-game suspension versus seven-game injury? Is the reaction positive to Ablett? Is it negative?
Will the west coast versus east coast conspiracy reach fever pitch? Will the public debate derail a possibly Fremantle grand final week? Will social media explode and in doing so will Twitter and the Internet be destroyed?
Who knows the answers to these questions, only a Fyfe over Ablett Brownlow count will tell us. Well, for what it is worth it is a guarantee that social media explodes on this outcome.
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