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Since it was introduced in 1994, the AFL finals series has heavily favoured the teams that finish inside the top four.
The top four have the advantage of a guaranteed home final (possibly two), and the option of a week off for winning or a second match to atone for losing.
In contrast, teams who finish between fifth and eighth have little going their way. Past finals results consistently show us the advantages of finishing in the top four. But judging by the weekend’s performance, Port Adelaide may well create some history this year.
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Precedence suggests everything is against the Power.
Since 1994, only one team – the Adelaide Crows in 1998 – has won the premiership outside of the top four. In the same period, only five teams have won a premiership playing in every week of the finals series (Adelaide in 1997 and 1998, Brisbane Lions in 2003, Sydney in 2005 and West Coast in 2006).
In addition, since the current top eight method was introduced in 2000 only Port Adelaide in 2001 and West Coast in 2007 have gained the double chance but lost both finals matches. Yet Sunday’s demolition of Richmond will have made Ross Lyon and his Fremantle side watch with trepidation.
This was not an easy game on paper. Richmond were riding a nine-game winning streak that included a very good win over Sydney in Round 23. Every neutral had fallen in love with the Richmond story and many were keen for it to continue at the expense of the home side.
Yet 12 minutes after the 50,000 strong crowd had sung ‘Never Tear Us Apart’, Port Adelaide had torn Richmond apart to put the game beyond doubt. They were simply relentless, the midfield hunting the Tigers in packs before spreading wide and attacking with precision.
Robbie Gray and Travis Boak worked in tandem to break apart the stoppages while Brad Ebert returned to some of his best form. With rumours circulating about a bid for Taylor Walker, Justin Westhoff reminded Ken Hinkley of his worth with a dominant 21-possession performance.
Every player did their job and they managed to squeeze the life out of Richmond, who in turn looked sloppy and overwhelmed by the occasion. While there have been bigger scoreboard margins this season, there hasn’t been a team performance this season that demoralised and picked apart an opposition side like Port’s effort on Sunday.
But can they keep it up?
As the stats show, we tend to overstate the efforts of elimination final winners while underestimating the losers of the qualifying finals. Fremantle were gallant against Sydney last week and will start favourites against Port, mainly because of the home ground advantage.
Yet Port should be confident about their chances as they have matched up well against the Dockers this season. They beat the Dockers in Adelaide by 18 points early in the season before narrowly losing by eight points in Round 23 at Subiaco Oval. In reality, the win flattered Fremantle as poor goal-kicking robbed the Power of the four points.
Both teams are maniacs when it comes to defensive pressure, which means the game will be won by the side that can break the defensive lines and use the space to their advantage. With Subiaco being such a big ground and Port having such pacy players as Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard and Jared Polec, the time and place suits an upset by Ken Hinkley’s side.
If Port beat Fremantle they would have a showdown with Hawthorn, a side they overpowered in Round 10.
Hawthorn is a quality team with a glut of experienced finals players but Port would come into the match with confidence and the knowledge that their best football can defeat any side. A lot of my article is based on crystal ball predictions, but I genuinely believe that Port Adelaide could come from fifth and win the premiership.
If they can replicate Sunday’s powerful work rate and effort for the next three weekends, no team will get close to them. History is against Port, but it was efforts like the one against Richmond that had them sitting atop the table in Round 14 and could see them win the premiership.
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