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Predicting the unpredictable on NFL's wildest weekend

Andrew Luck has called time. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Expert
2nd January, 2015
5

Four teams will go home and four teams will move on. It’s the NFL’s Wild Card weekend, where miraculous Super Bowl runs are born and anything can happen.

In fact, three of the past four Super Bowl champions featured in the Wild Card round.

The 2012-2013 Baltimore Ravens started their championship push with a 24-9 win over the Indianapolis Colts. The 2011-2012 Giants kicked-off their dream post-season campaign with a 24-2 thumping of the Falcons. Before that the 2010-2011 Packers edged the Philadelphia Eagles 21-16 on the road before running the gauntlet against Atlanta, Chicago and eventually Pittsburgh.

Whether you scraped in with 7-8-1 record or owned the league’s best record for much of the season, everyone is equal again on Wild Card weekend. Let the playoffs begin!

Cardinals (5) at Panthers (4)
Sunday 8.35am (AEST) 
Line: Carolina -6.5.

Perhaps the most intriguing match-up of all on Wild Card weekend, the sub-500 Panthers against the injury ravaged Cardinals.

Arizona once held the best record in the NFL, while the Panthers were 3-8-1 only a month ago, but Carolina will come into this game as favourites and should likely end the Cardinals unlucky season.

Football can be a cruel game. The Cardinals, written off after losing several key members of their defence in the pre-season, rebounded to win nine of their first 10 games. Then, just when they thought their luck had changed, they lost their starting quarterback and running back.

Now on their third-string signal-caller, Arizona’s remarkable season has come back down to earth with four losses from their final six games. Meanwhile, the Panthers look genuinely dangerous.

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Their defence is forcing turnovers and turning them into points and the offense is finally getting some use out of the money they paid Jonathan Stewart.

If they stick to the game plan that served them so well then the Panthers should move onto the Divisional Round, an unthinkable achievement at mid-season. While the Cardinals will need a stout performance on defence, at least one special teams touchdown, flawless field-goal kicking and zero turnovers on offense. That’s not too much to ask for, is it?

Key to the game: Panthers running game versus Cardinals front seven.
Spluttering through October and November, the Panthers revived their season by returning to their once dominant running game.

During mid-season the Panthers didn’t win a game for two months, but when they made their breakthrough, in a 41-10 thumping over divisional rival Saints, it was on the back of hard running between the tackles from Jonathan Stewart (155 yards, TD).

With DeAngelo Williams missing through injury, Stewart has routinely gashed teams and helped the Panthers dominate the clock. The Panthers also have Cam Newton to turn to in the running game and the rangy quarterback can easily out-sprint opposing linebackers and safeties.

With run stopping machine Darnell Dockett out for the season, the Cardinals 3-4 defence, particularly Larry Foote, Frosty Rucker and Calais Campbell, have done a decent job of stopping the ground game. They rank 13th in the NFL, giving up 108 yards a contest, but that figure was blown out in losses against the Seahawks and 49ers.

Player to watch: Luke Kuechly, Panthers LB.
The NFL’s leading tackler in 2014, Kuechly is everywhere on the field. The 2013 defensive player of the year made 153 tackles in the regular season, to go with three sacks, an interception, a forced fumble and a recovery.

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A three-down inside linebacker, who can drop into coverage on pass plays, rush the passer and has an excellent tackling technique, Kuechly’s battle with inexperienced Cardinals quarterback Ryan Lindley should be fascinating.

Kuechly is athletic and intelligent, the heart of the Panthers defence and will be looking to avenge the Panthers one-and-done loss to the 49ers in the Divisional Round last season.

Prediction: Panthers 20, Cardinals 9

Ravens (6) at Steelers (3)
Sunday 12.15pm (AEST)
Line: Steelers -3.5

Once a defensive war of attrition that typically ended in a multi-field goal 16-13 result, this game has evolved into a more offensive minded clash this season.

The Ravens and Steelers split their division games in the regular season, but, surprisingly, in both games the deficit was 20 points.

The Ravens dominated defensively in week 2, claiming a 26-6 victory and the Steelers offense, led by a surging Ben Roethlisberger, ran over the Ravens 43-23 in the return fixture.

The Steelers won their last four games, including two against Cincinnati, to clinch the AFC North division, while the Ravens looked unsteady at times down the stretch, losing to the Texans and Chargers.

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Flacco’s worst game of late, a three-interception horror show in week 16, was a result of the Texans relentless pass-rush disrupting his rhythm.

If the Steelers can do that then they may have their way with the Ravens offense. The other major factor will be either team’s ability to run the ball; Le’Veon Bell against the fourth-ranked Ravens D and Justin Forsett against the sixth ranked Steelers front seven.

Whoever can control the clock will take a big step towards winning this game.

Key to the game: Steelers WRs versus Ravens secondary
Can anyone stop Antonio Brown? Answer: No, not really. Brown was held to under 100 yards and 0 touchdowns in only four games in 2014, his worst outing coming in the Steelers surprise loss to the Jets when he still caught eight of nine passes thrown his way for 74 yards.

The rest of the time Brown has proved to be a handful, scoring multiple touchdowns in four games and going over the 100-yard mark eight times.

Despite his diminutive stature, Brown finished the year as the league’s receiving yards leader and also hauled in 13 touchdowns.

Whether the Steelers line him up in the slot or out wide, Brown has shown he can be notoriously elusive and hard to cover. The Ravens’ secondary will be led by veteran cornerback Lardarius Webb, who has improved of late, but is not back to where he was before tearing his ACL in 2012.

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Webb will do his best to stick with Brown, but the problem is the Ravens will also have to focus on rookie speedman Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton and tight-end Heath Miller.

Player to watch: Le’Veon Bell
The versatile back’s status was iffy at the time of writing, but if he plays then Bell could be a difference maker in the battle between these two bitter rivals.

The second-year back broke the Steelers’ franchise record for most yards from scrimmage in a season in the win over the Bengals before hyper-extending his right knee.

Durable and surprisingly elusive, Bell has joined the ranks of elite running backs this season, compiling an impressive 1,361 yards on the ground and 854 through the air.

If he is healthy then Bell will come up against the league’s eighth-best run defence and a team that held him to 79 yards on 21 carries in two matches earlier this season.

The mid-season defection of LeGarrette Blount back to the Patriots means that if Bell is out then the Steelers will have to roll with either undrafted rookie Josh Harris or free-agent pick-up Ben Tate.

The Steelers have become a top passing team this season, but require a balanced attack to progress through the playoffs, making Bell’s fitness pivotal to their post-season success.

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Prediction: Steelers 31, Ravens 24

Bengals (5) at Colts (4)
Monday 5.05am (AEST)
Line: Colts -3.5.

These two teams have already met at Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Andrew Luck was good, Andy Dalton was bad and the Colts came away with a 27-0 win. So what evidence is there that this time will be any different?

Well, the Bengals were embarrassed on that day and will be out for redemption, the Colts offense has regressed and the emergence of Jeremy Hill has given the Bengals a genuine power back to compliment the screen game of Giovanni Bernard and the deep threat of AJ Green.

In the first match-up this season, the Bengals abandoned the run early and Dalton began flinging the ball down field to no one in particular.

With Hill proving durable and effective late in the year, it will be a shock to see the Bengals repeat that game plan.

The Colts wrapped up the division a few weeks ago and rested Luck for long stretches in the loss against the Cowboys and the win over the Titans. After topping 400 yards in eight of the first nine games as the NFL’s No. 1 offense, the Colts have managed that feat just once in the last seven weeks.

But Andrew Luck does have cause to be optimistic, with deep-threat T.Y. Hilton and top red-zone threat Dwayne Allen returning healthy for the postseason.

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Key to the game: TY Hilton versus the Bengals secondary
Speaking of Hilton, it was curious to see the Colts toss up their worst offensive performance of the season in a 42-7 defeat at the hands of the Cowboys in week 16. Curious because of the man who was noticeably absent – TY Hilton.

Without the speedy deep threat in the line-up the Colts went three-and-out an awful lot early in the game while relinquishing a 28-0 half-time lead to the Cowboys. Luck has a good arm and loves hooking up with Hilton for long passes, but without the third-year pro on the field he is left with few weapons to target.

Hilton had seven catches and 107 yards the last time these two teams met and after missing the Cowboys game with a hamstring injury and playing sparingly against the Titans in the season final, he should be primed to go deep against the Bengals.

Player to watch: Andy Dalton, Bengals quarterback
Andy Dalton has led the Bengals to three straight Wild Card games and lost every one. The TCU-product’s name has become synonymous with pressure, or his inability to handle it.

Dalton is steady in the regular season, leading the Bengals to the post-season every year and an average of 10 wins a season, but bad under the bright lights of Monday Night Football and very bad in the playoffs. Bengals offensive co-ordinator called Dalton’s horrible post-season record (0-3, one touchdown, six picks, 56.2 rating) the “elephant in the room” and said the team needed to “exorcise it”.

Dalton is arguably under more pressure than any other player in this post-season, lose again and that would be four promising seasons down the drain because of poor play and would have many questioning the six-year, $96-million contract he signed in August.

Whether he stands up to the scrutiny or crashes and burns, Dalton is certainly one to watch on Wild Card weekend.

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Prediction: Bengals 23, Colts 20.

Lions (6) at Cowboys (3)
Monday 8.40am (AEST)
Line: Cowboys -6.5.

After a trio of 8-8 finishes America’s team has proved America wrong. The Cowboys are alive in the playoffs for the first time since they lost to the Vikings in the Divisional round of the 2009 season.

And rather than having limped in, the Cowboys have their offense primed and are looking like one of the more dangerous teams in the post-season.

Meanwhile, the Lions missed out on a home playoff game when they fell to the Packers at Lambeau last week and now will have to go through Dallas and probably Seattle to reach the NFC Championship game.

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has been solid this year, but both his touchdown numbers and yardage are down considerably. Calvin Johnson has been good when healthy and the Lions running game has been hit and miss. But the real strength of the Lions is their defence.

They boast the best run stoppers in the league, allowing only 69.3 yards per game, and will come up against the league leading rusher DeMarco Murray, who averages 115.3 yards per game.

That battle will surely be instrumental in deciding a winner, but perhaps more important will be the Lions ability to get to Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, who is also having an MVP calibre season.

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Key to the game: Lions pass rush versus Cowboys offensive line
He’s the man who puts the ‘‘wild” in Wild Card weekend. His one-game suspension overturned, Ndamukong Suh can now focus his energies on swatting aside the Cowboys interior offensive lineman and getting pressure on quarterback Tony Romo.

The giant DT is among the most disruptive defensive players in the league, finishing the regular-season with 8.5 sacks and 13 stuffs this season. The Cowboys offensive line, which excels at run blocking, rank 17th in pass protection this season and have given up 31 sacks.

If the Cowboys fall behind early or DeMarco Murray proves ineffective, Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin could send Suh, Ezekiel Ansah, Nick Fairley, linebacker DeAndre Levy and others in multiple blitz packages.

That battle at the line of scrimmage will prove pivotal; if Romo is able to ply his trade unfettered he should pick the Lions secondary apart.

Player to watch: Dez Bryant, Cowboys WR
Bryant has been a beast of late, hauling in 19 catches, 268 yards and six touchdowns in the last three games.

He almost single-handedly torched the Redskins in week 17, going off for two touchdowns in the first quarter. Bryant, a relentless perfectionist who is often shown screaming at his teammates during losses, is primed for a huge showing in his first ever playoff game.

Second-year pro Darius Slay was matched up against the Packers’ Jordy Nelson last week and should get the job on Bryant in this elimination game. He will have his work cut out for him and may need safety help over the top.

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Prediction: Cowboys 27, Lions 21.

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