About this time every year, football fans become clairvoyants, gazing into their crystal balls to determine which team might be the competition’s dark horse.
Historically one team emerges from the previous season’s bottom eight and catapults itself into the finals.
Given the introduction of the expansion teams, a place in the top eight is becoming more of a coveted position than in years gone by. One need only look at the reaction of the Richmond players last year, after their ninth straight win to claim eighth spot, only to be knocked out the following week in a lacklustre performance against Port Adelaide.
The field is relatively open this year.
There are the perennial questions about Geelong and whether their long-waited demise will eventuate. Fremantle, a consistent finals performer under Ross Lyon, have question marks hanging over their heads as their player list is a year older.
What effect will Sydney’s embarrassing grand final loss have on their 2015 campaign? Will North Melbourne be able to cement its place in the top four, or will we see them revert to their old inconsistent ways? Can Richmond win their yearly battle with ninth position?
How will James Hird and Essendon respond after a tumultuous 2014 and start to their pre-season? Do Port Adelaide have the mettle after two relatively successful finals campaigns to rise to the premiership? And are Hawthorn invincible?
All these questions will be answered over the next six months about last year’s final eight.
Ten other teams vie for a position in 2015’s final eight. But the empirical evidence suggests only one, maybe two of last year’s bottom eight will battle their way into the finals.
Strong contender: The Gold Coast Suns
If the Gold Coast continue on their trajectory, it is difficult to see how they will miss the eight. Rodney Eade brings his tactical nous, which may be the difference between a finals berth and missing the eight.
The start of the season may prove difficult with Jaeger O’Meara, Tom Lynch and Charlie Dixon missing. However, there is plenty of talent through the middle to make up for it, led by the mercurial Gary Ablett. Nick Malceski brings a wealth of experience and run to the backline and will be a natural fit.
A player who rarely gets spoken about but looks an extremely likely type is Tom Nicholls. Over the next few years, he and Zac Smith will be an imposing force right around the ground.
With plenty of games at Metricon, the Gold Coast Suns are a legitimate top-eight contender. Did I mention Ablett? We love Ablett.
Medium chance: The Adelaide Crows
Adelaide are a mixed bag and they will be keen to reassert some inter-state dominance at Adelaide Oval, something their cross-town rivals Port Adelaide have done so successfully. It will be interesting to see what changes Phillip Walsh makes.
Their midfield stocks are strong with the likes of Rory Sloane, Patrick Dangerfield, Nathan Van Berlo, Sam Kerridge and veteran Scott Thompson. Cam Ellis-Yolmen’s form in the pre-season has been remarkable, while Brodie Smith will look to push into the midfield. Fans will be upset about the injury to Brad Crouch, who is sidelined for eight weeks.
The forward line, led by new skipper Taylor Walker, is limited. Tom Lynch and Josh Jenkins show glimpses, but neither have cemented their position. James Podsiadly may still prove to be the best second forward option. Matthew Wright and Eddie Betts provide some necessary class should the ball be brought to ground. One suspects Dangerfield will have to push hard into the forward line to be a goal-scoring presence.
The backline also has some issues. Daniel Talia is one of the best key position defenders in the game, but his support cast is limited. Kyle Cheney has been brought in for some support. Kyle Hartigan will also continue his development. Podsiadly may find himself rotating between half forward and half back to provide some necessary assistance. Luke Brown, Ricky Henderson, Matthew Jaensch and Rory Laird will provide run and ground level support. Don’t be surprised to see Brodie Smith retain his position on the half back flank.
Things have to go right for them, but sometimes a bit of luck is all you need.
Smokey: The Brisbane Lions
This may surprise some. It is a tough ask to come from fifteenth and finish in the eight, but the Lions will be hoping to emulate Port Adelaide’s recent rise as well as West Coast’s performance in 2011, where the Eagles rose from sixteenth in 2010 to fourth.
The off-season saw them add depth to their already strong midfield with the additions of Dayne Beams and Alan Christensen. The problems are clearly at either end of the ground. In the forward line, much will be left to youngsters Michael Close, Daniel McStay and Lewis Taylor. They will be assisted by a rotating ruck combination of Stefan Martin and the injury-plagued Matthew Leuenberger.
In the backline, Daniel Merrett will be supported by Justin Clarke, Ryan Lester and Marco Paparone.
A lot has to go right, but if you’re looking for a smokey, Brisbane is certainly that.
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