Everyone has an opinion on how the AFL ladder will look at the end of the 2015 season: who will make the eight, who will drop out, who will be a bolter, and who will leave their supporters calling for their coach’s head.
After hours upon hours of research and analysing statistics and trends, I still didn’t have a clue what I was doing.
So I said bugger it, and here is my final 2015 AFL ladder. In the process I will debunk the myth as to why each team will finish the season in their nominated spot.
Port Adelaide
Myth: They don’t have the manpower to beat Hawthorn.
Port was stiff not to make the grand final in 2014 after getting beaten by the eventual premier Hawthorn.
With the addition of Paddy Ryder into the mix they are adding another dimension to their ruck/forward stocks and their home ground advantage at Adelaide Oval will give them more than enough wins to be the minor and major premiers in 2015.
Hawthorn
Myth: They are a lock to win three in a row.
This amazing team have added James Frawley to their dominating backline, and the only thing stopping them from going the three-peat is Port Adelaide, and their own mental drive to keep winning.
The midfield and forward line will continue to kick winning scores but with a number hitting or passing the dreaded age of 30 (what a crock), they might run out of puff in the last game of 2015.
They will be there on grand final day but will be the ones with their heads in their hands and tears in their eyes.
Sydney
Myth: They are still a ‘genuine’ contender for the flag
This is the team that will either pinch a flag in 2015 or blow grand final day big time like they did in 2014.
Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippet will be better a combination is 2015 as long as Tippet stays injury free (you are all dreaming if you thinks that will happen). The loss of Nick Malceski is bigger than people think, and may be their achilles heel in the end.
They have the SCG, a gun midfield and forward line, but their back six may let more through than what they’re used to.
Still, a top three spot for the Swans (not the Bloods: get over it) is a lock.
North Melbourne
Myth: 2014 was a great season but they won’t make the top four in 2014.
You are kidding right? North have one of the biggest bodied midfields in the league and an ALDI-like defence; as good as anyone without any of the big brand names.
With the addition of Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins into the mix, the Kangaroos are not only shaping up for a top-four finish but a tilt at the flag. If they limit their late-game brain farts and sneak a couple of more wins than 2014, top four here you come – and anything can happen during finals time.
Geelong
Myth: The Cats are still a premiership contender.
I am making the call now: the Cats will not make the top four for the first time since 2012. They have been dominating the AFL for the eight seasons, but father time is catching up with their big stars and there isn’t enough talent at a similar level to replace them.
Mitch Clark (still spewing he isn’t at the Demons) will be a big inclusion if he can keep himself physically and mentally fit and will be the perfect buddy for Tom Hawkins up forward. They will dominate at the Cattery once again, but there are too many clubs on the rise in 2015 and unfortunately someone has to slide down to make way.
Geelong are one team who will. The second is…
Fremantle
Myth: The Dockers are still a premiership contender.
Put a fork in the Dockers baby: they’re done! If it wasn’t for the fact that Fremantle will be playing half of their games in Western Australia, which is a nightmare for travelling clubs, I would have had them starting their end-of-season trip early with the other nine teams who will miss the finals.
Ross Lyon has performed the same trick at the Dockers as he did at the Saints by squeezing every last drop out of the group, getting them to grand finals, lose them, not regenerating the list, and relying on the oldest list in the AFL to compete against younger, hungrier teams.
Nat Fyfe is a gun, Matthew Pavlich has been a warrior, Hayden Ballantine is a pest, but the writing is on the wall for the Purple Haze: your time has passed.
Gold Coast
Myth: No Ablett, no finals for the Suns
Their time has arrived. 2015 will be the year that the expansion side will make the finals and start their rise towards premiership glory (not in 2015 though). The list is another year older, the bodies are another pre-season bigger and fitter, and the number of games experience is at the stage where the team is really starting to play as one.
Don’t take for granted the inclusion of Malceski into the mix and the leadership of a finals veteran in Rodney Eade steering the ship. Eade will be the person to take them from good to great, like he did with the Bulldogs during the mid-2000s and instil in this group that hard work and commitment to each other is needed to succeed.
They also have a bloke named Ablett, which helps a little, and I can’t wait to see Jaeger O’Meara and Jack Martin develop into bona fide superstars this year.
Richmond
Myth: Richmond will cool after their late-season hot streak.
The Tigers are the team under the most pressure to make the eight. They conquered the dream with two consecutive finals appearances but they were blown out of the water both times. They simply need to win a final or it will be another wasted season.
For all those who like Damien Hardwick as coach (I am one), if the Tigers get slaughtered again in the post-season the questions will be raised if he is the right man for the job. I think he is, and he has the cattle to deliver, but confidence and consistency are key.
Richmond need to look back at the last nine weeks of the regular season and realise they have the capabilities to shake the competition if they believe in themselves and the direction of the club.
Dusty Martin looks like he could be a Bronwlow smoky in 2015 and having Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and Brett Deledio on your side is another positive.
So there it is. My top eight and the myths attached to each team. Do you agree? Let me know in the comments below and stay tuned for Part 2.
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