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Now we’re getting serious. With each game approaching the Rugby World Cup, it feels like we’re getting closer and closer to the strongest sides from each of the four Rugby Championship teams.
This week we’ve seen eight changes for Los Pumas, both forced and unforced, the return of Jean de Villiers and the very mobile Springbok backrow again named.
We’ve also got what looks to be pretty close to the All Blacks first XV and, finally, the Wallabies deciding that Michael Hooper and David Pocock starting has to be tried.
Here’s the Big Questions for Week 3, with a bit of an eye to that little carnival coming up later this year…
Harry Jones asks: “Which TRC scrum looks most ready for the rigours of a World Cup in London with northern hemisphere referees? Least?”
Señor Mario Ledesma should keep his Wallaby scrum doctor job. There’s noticeable improvement, but Michael Cheika’s men will still be the least eager southern hemisphere team to scrum in England. James Slipper must tweak his technique or he will give Leigh Halfpenny target practice.
Argentina and New Zealand’s injury-weakened scrums look decent, but at the risk of sounding like Bobby Skinstad’s happy uncle, South Africa’s scrum is the best equipped to placate or even impress picky northern hemisphere refs at Twickenham.
The all-Shark front row is regaining fitness and form at just the right time, and there are now four good, young backup props of similar size to choose from.
Brett: All four scrums will – to varying degrees – stand up pretty well in the north. The bigger issue for the Wallabies is going to be perceptions and default suspicions.
The Wallabies have an even split in their four pool games, with Chris Pollock for the first game against Fiji, and Craig Joubert for the final pool game, against Wales, and they have at least had plenty of experience with Australian scrums and the personnel involved. In between, they have Frenchmen Pascal Gauzere for the Uruguay game, and Romain Poite for the England game, in which case it might be fingers crossed.
South Africa, New Zealand, and Argentina shouldn’t have too many issues, by comparison, mostly because they’ve never really been seen as having a weak scrum.
Diggercane: Based purely on the four games to date and narrowing it down further to the two games played with a northern hemisphere referee – Australia versus South Africa and South Africa versus New Zealand – I see no reason for any team to be overly concerned.
Both South Africa and Argentina may be concerned regarding their reserve options, as there has been a noticeable decline in performance after replacements have been made, but we may not have seen their best 23 in action.
Argentina, South Africa, and New Zealand are there or thereabouts. If I had to choose a team that seems likely to have issues it would be the Wallabies, however they have improved significantly overall and any problems they experience may be about perception rather than reality.
Diggercane asks: “How important is it for the Wallabies to secure at least one win over the All Blacks in the coming weeks with a view to the World Cup?”
It’s not so important that they can’t win the World Cup if they don’t, but important enough in that they will know they are on the right track. The confidence they can take from a win heading towards the pool of death would be immeasurable.
France has proven that previous form is not important in a knockout tournament, and I have no doubt this group will have the self-belief regardless of the results in the next two fixtures. However, with many in the playing group yet to have actually beaten the All Blacks, it would be very useful to ensure that nagging doubt can be eliminated from the back of one’s mind.
Harry: Cheika has the right attitude on this rivalry: take no prisoners and embrace the underdog tag. He has said, “We know we’re the underdog, we won’t have to guess about that.”
He’s approaching his first Test against New Zealand with an edge.
His Wallabies training sessions appear to be full-on, intense, and bloody. He’s trying to infuse the squad with the Waratah style of welcoming or even inventing confrontations. If a big youngster like Brodie Retallick has never lost to Australia, Cheika knows someone has to run over him, or it will just continue.
A win over the All Blacks isn’t vital for Australia to figure out how to beat bullies like England, Wales, Scotland, or South Africa, but it’s crucial for Cheika personally, for his dream of eventually bringing union even with other codes, and to make the Bledisloe a living rivalry again.
It will help to build swaggering mojo in his squad, reflecting his own personality.
Brett: A Bledisloe win won’t guarantee World Cup success, but it would be a massive boost for the Wallabies’ confidence.
Winning is a habit, as they say, and unfortunately, so is losing. Matt Giteau, with 93 Tests under his belt, can only point to four wins against New Zealand in 21 attempts. James Horwill (59 Tests) has two from 13 matches, while James Slipper (65) has won just once in 14 Bledisloe Tests. Guys like Matt Toomua and Israel Folau have never beaten the All Blacks.
Knowing that they can beat the very best in the world would just give them a new mental benchmark heading into the World Cup. The worst that Fiji, Uruguay, England, and Wales can throw at them in Pool A wouldn’t seem so daunting if they could remember back to ‘that time only back a few weeks when we beat New Zealand’.
Brett McKay asks: “Australia’s halves look anything but settled, but do we think any of the other three Rugby Championship nations have locked in their halves pairing for the Rugby World Cup already?”
When I asked this question of the boys, I expected to answer ‘all bar Australia are sorted’, but with Daniel Hourcade pulling eight changes this week, including benching Nicolas Sanchez and recalling Juan Martin Hernandez, that doesn’t exactly reek of settled halves.
New Zealand are sorted, with Aaron Smith and Dan Carter. South Africa should be sorted with Ruan Pienaar and Handre Pollard, but it seems Fourie du Preez will come back at some point.
No.9 looks like Nick Phipps’ jersey to lose, but who is the preferred flyhalf? Quade Cooper’s been tried, Bernard Foley gets another shot this weekend. Might Giteau or Toomua be tried? Could anyone rule it out? Only ‘Cheik’ knows…
Digger: South Africa and New Zealand will be set with du Preez/Pollard and Smith/Carter as first choice. Should injury strike, well, as a Kiwi I am not going to go there. The backups for the All Blacks and Springboks are quality performers, though.
Argentina look to have an issue, particularly with Sanchez not in the best form. With a quality replacement in Hernandez waiting in the wings it is not all doom and gloom, but there is the very real prospect they may head into this World Cup without any form or cohesion. It would be my choice to stick with Martin Landajo and Sanchez, and try to play them into form, particularly as I would want Hernandez at 12.
Harry: Yes. Steve Hansen and Heyneke Meyer have their lists. For the All Blacks, in the absence of Aaron Cruden, it’s Carter and Smith. For the Springboks, health permitting, it’s Pollard paired with du Preez (and if the old maestro cannot make it back, Ruan Pienaar). Even the backups are set, with Pat Lambie and Beauden Barrett blessed or cursed by their versatility.
Argentina’s Tomas Cubelli and Sanchez have shown vulnerability to rush defences and counter-rucking, but Landajo hasn’t shown the sharp service and tracking lines he displayed in 2014. Maybe Hernandez can take advantage of Sanchez’s dive in form?
Tips for The Rugby Championship Round 3
Brett
#AUSvNZL – ‘Pooper’ or ‘Hocock’ was always going to be tried at some point, and even though I am a touch surprised it’s in the opening Bledisloe Test of the year, I’m excited to see how well – or even if – it works. It’s extremely high risk, but just crazy enough to work. So sod it, Wallabies by 3.
#RSAvARG – Eight changes for the Pumas, and the return of ‘JdV’. Even without the Du Plessis boys up front on their home track, it’s hard to see how this comes up anything but ‘Springboks by heaps’. At least 15.
Digger
#AUSvNZL – Too many new combinations for my liking for the Wallabies heading into this match, and with two locks possibly short of a gallop I have to go with the All Blacks here by 12.
#RSAvARG – plenty of changes for the Pumas, and up against a Springbok side at home conscious of not dropping a third match in a row, have to go Boks by 18.
Harry
#AUSvNZL – A tantalising trans-Tasman tussle. My head hurts, trying to predict this one. Italy’s Six Nations-winning percentage is better than the Wallabies’ in the Bledisloe Cup since 2005. The All Blacks have hundreds more caps. Cheika still hasn’t found a sharpshooter. Rob Simmons is out. The All Black front row will want to atone for their weak outing in Johannesburg.
So… I’ll go with the underdogs, at home, by 5 or less. I can’t Cheika this feeling.
#RSAvARG – The battle of the backups! Our infirmary versus your infirmary. The Pumas have named an experimental team for Durban, with their real starting World Cup XV waiting on the Buenos Aires match. The Boks will welcome a few convalescents. I expect a brawl, but the first South African try-fest since the World XV pre-season romp. South Africa by 18 or more.