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History shows that, with one exception, you can’t win the premiership flag unless you finish inside the top four.
Achieved once before by the Adelaide Crows in 1998, I think an outside premiership is on the cards again this year.
Currently, the top eight includes at least six teams who could (or should) be in the top four. With the unpredictable way that many games have been played this year, the finals will be anyone’s game, and may even be won by a side that finishes eighth at the end of the minor round.
So far this year we have seen the Bulldogs (4th) beat West Coast (2nd), Richmond (6th) beat Fremantle (1st), Hawthorn (3rd) and Sydney (5th), and then the Adelaide Crows came out and beat Richmond by six goals, despite currently sitting eighth on the ladder.
At this stage, after Round 20, it’s anyone’s flag and this could shape up to be one of the best, and most unpredictable, finals series in the history of the game.
Personally, I believe the top eight is pretty well set, and the teams currently in the eight will stay there. That would see Hawthorn travel to Perth in the first week of the finals to play West Coast, who they defeated by 14 points in their last meeting, although West Coast were missing players from their starting line-up.
The Bulldogs, however, may be the dark horse. They are the most improved side this year, playing finals for the first time in a long time, and it will be interesting to see if they can continue their good form in the knockouts where it really counts.
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