When the Wallabies arrive at Twickenham for their match of the 2015 Rugby World Cup against England, the Australian public will observe the beginning of the campaign with a tentative optimism that has been notably absent in recent times.
In the past decade, Test matches in England may have sent a shudder down the spine of even the most fervent Wallaby supporter, for it has been an unhappy stomping ground.
Since the turn of the Millennium, Australia have lost 7 of 11 Test matches in London. It’s far from the worst record. Far from the best.
The gravity of the occasion has often permeated throughout the psyche of both the Australian players and supporters – much to their detriment. The enigma lies within the relative inability to identify its origin.
Is it the unwavering patriotic support of the crowds? Perhaps, but that is encountered in South Africa, too. The intimidating factor of the stadia? Maybe, but the Eden Park hoodoo has been plaguing Australian rugby for 29 years. Plus Stadium Australia is hardly the size of a postage stamp.
The scrum? Of course, don’t forget about the scrum. The age-old conundrum of the scrum.
These are often perceived insurmountable challenges that arise when playing in unfamiliar conditions; away from home. It’s not unreasonable to assume they weren’t the focal point of Robbie Deans’ tenure – disciplinary issues often took pride of place there. But Michael Cheika presents a different philosophy. A return to the battle-hardened glory days of the past. 1999 anyone?
When Cheika took over in October 2014 amidst the Ewen McKenzie saga, the Australians were a team in a bit of a muddle. An initial victory over Wales to commence the spring tour was overshadowed by losses to France and Ireland. The reverberations of these defeats were compounded by another loss – at Twickenham – against an England side with one victory from their previous six starts.
Joe Marler, Courtney Lawes, Chris Robshaw and co. overpowered a Wallabies scrum Michael Cheika later deemed “too honest” and that “we have to improve”.
The upshot was that the forwards coach Andrew Blades was replaced by former Argentinian enforcer Mario Ledesma as scrum coach. In just a few months since Ledesma has taken over, already there has been a notable improvement – highlighted best in the Wallabies’ shock victory over the All Blacks in Sydney in August.
It has developed to such an extent where they are not only able to compete, but dominate at times against an often deemed superior All Blacks forward pack. Of course question marks will remain about the ability to translate this progression to the Northern Hemisphere style; the experience of Marler and Dan Cole of England will pose a considerable challenge at home that Australia will have to overcome should they taste victory.
A formidable Welsh backrow consisting of Sam Warburton, Dan Lydiate and Toby Faletau will not only cause problems at the scrum, but the breakdown too.
Nevertheless, there is something reassuring about the Australian mentality these days. Aggression is ‘the Australian way’ and a dynamic, versatile side may provide the basis to seriously challenge for the Webb Ellis trophy. Perhaps, this time, the improvement of the scrum – while good, but not great – may provide the final piece in the jigsaw puzzle that unlocks sustained success on English soil.
There are, of course, some detractors. Sir Clive Woodward, for instance, doesn’t subscribe to the theory of scrum evolution. He’s a man better placed than most to positively identify the key elements required for World Cup success – he took England to victory in 2003.
“They are working on it but it’s a worry because I see three or four sets of props in England who’d get into the Wallabies squad,” he said.
But not only is the scrum a point of contention for Woodward, the goal kicking of the capable but sometimes sporadic Bernard Foley is an issue.
“A world-class goal kicker is the other element you need to win a World Cup, an 85-90 per cent man, and the Wallabies have a big question mark there when it gets to the knockout stage.”
While Woodward is notorious for identifying, even exacerbating, deficiencies in Australian rugby, the point he makes does resonate. In 2003, Jonny Wilkinson’s infamous drop goal in extra-time of the final broke the hearts of a nation. In 2007, South Africa relied on Percy Montgomery’s boot to get them over the line against England in the final.
Extend the logic a further four years, and Stephen Donald, New Zealand’s fourth choice Fly-half, calmly slotted a penalty goal that ultimately took New Zealand to World Cup success for the first time in 24 years.
But prolonged brilliance does not necessarily facilitate success in the game’s biggest showpiece. James O’Connor was a good goal kicker, but he was no Morne Steyn. Still, it was off his boot that saw Australia claim victory in the 2011 quarter-final and knock South Africa out.
Kurtley Beale has done it against South Africa in South Africa. Rewind to the 2014 Super Rugby final, in the 79th minute with the Waratahs needing a penalty goal to be crowned Super Rugby champions for the first time in their existence. It was Foley who stepped up and took the Waratahs to glory in the most pressurised of circumstances.
But there are other factors that make the Wallabies a proposition for success. From the outside in, it appears to be a cohesive unit, filled with skilful playmakers and resilient forwards. They are disciplined. It’s an almost exact mixture of youth and experience. A capable scrum. A favourable draw – provided they finish first in Pool A.
Hypothetically, if Australia top Pool A, they should play either Samoa or Scotland in a quarter-final. On paper – and it’s worth remembering rugby matches aren’t played on paper – neither side really poses a credible threat to a Wallabies team at the top of their game. Progress through and take on, hypothetically, France, Ireland or Argentina. A tough ask, but tougher than an All Blacks side in Sydney?
From there, a final appearance beckons – potentially against the All Blacks. Inevitably, the All Blacks are unquestionably the side to beat. A winning percentage of 93 per cent and just four losses since the 2011 World Cup provides no reasonable basis to oppose their favouritism.
But this is a World Cup. In the Northern Hemisphere. And for the All Blacks, it is not a favourable mix – they’ve never, despite a growing disparity between them and other rugby nations, made a World Cup final in the Northern Hemisphere. It’s a statistic they will desperately be trying to change under the guidance of Steve Hansen, but a curious point nonetheless.
Perhaps the biggest challenge will be taking on England, as ever, at Twickenham. A highly unique, highly testing, highly publicised fixture. A win against the odds may provide a springboard to the top of Pool A. Considering Wales’ recent performances against Australia, it’s not an unreasonable assumption to make. From there, it could be a path to World Cup triumphalism.
So it’s as easy as that then?
No. It’s a tumultuous challenge, but an exciting prospect nevertheless: top Pool A and lift the Webb Ellis trophy at Twickenham – of all places.
And wouldn’t that be something to savour?
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