The Brownlow Medal has an intriguing history. Every year the count arrives with a clear frontrunner, but rarely does that touted individual take home Charlie.
Since 2007, Gold Coast’s Gary Ablett is the only man to start the night favourite with punters and actually claim the award.
Last year, Joel Selwood started the count a $2.50 favourite, and a string of six other names featured in the odds ahead of eventual winner Matt Priddis at $17.
In 2013 the odds were on target, as Gary Ablett claimed his second Brownlow after starting the night at $1.90 ahead of Joel Selwood, who the bookies had also tipped for second.
Looking back to 2012, and the upsets swing back into fashion. Jobe Watson took home Charlie that year, coming from $5.50 to beat out Ablett, who finished six votes off the pace in sixth.
In 2011, a top betting company went as far as paying out punters who placed a bet on Chris Judd before the count – he started the night at $1.90, but would go on to finish 11 votes behind the eventual winner Dane Swan (34 votes) who started the count as an $11.00 outsider.
The year before Swan claimed his maiden Brownlow, he walked into Crown Casino a $2.25 favourite in 2010, but it would be Chris Judd storming in from $17.00 to win four votes clear of Ablett and six votes clear of Swan.
In 2009 Ablett made the bookmakers look wise once again, claiming his first Brownlow eight votes clear of Judd. It had been a long wait for Ablett though, who had suffered through years of favouritism before finally claiming the award.
In 2008 Ablett fell as short as $1.60 before sustaining an ankle injury and missing four rounds late in the season. He remained the favourite on Brownlow night but the upset would famously come from the Western Bulldogs’ Adam Cooney, one vote clear of Brisbane’s Simon Black.
In 2007 Ablett again started the night as a short favourite ($2.10), but would finish in fifth, nine votes short of Jimmy Bartel ($10).
And so we arrive at 2015.
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Nathan Fyfe is the frontrunner to claim this year’s Brownlow, with many tipping that he’ll have it wrapped up nice and early, potentially polling in ten of the opening 11 rounds.
Fyfe has had a stellar season, and is the deserved favourite for the award. Unfortunately for Fyfe though, being the player everyone believes has had the best season doesn’t mean you’ll poll the most votes on Brownlow night – as history has shown time and time again.
What do you think Roarers, can Fyfe defy recent history and win the Brownlow starting the night as favourite?
2015 Brownlow Medal Odds:
Nathan Fyfe 2.00
Matt Priddis 5.00
Patrick Dangerfield 8.00
Daniel Hannebery 10.00
Sam Mitchell 11.00
Todd Goldstein 16.00
Josh P. Kennedy 21.00
Andrew Gaff 23.00
Scott Pendlebury 51.00
David Mundy 51.00
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