Pool A in the 2015 Rugby World Cup has been called the ‘pool of death’ as it contains four teams in rugby’s top ten and three sides that could realistically win the tournament.
With a bunch of games already played in the pool, what is the situation and how will it play out?
There are four games left in Pool A. In Pool A, these teams have played twice and have the following points: Wales (9), Australia (9) and England (6).
If we assume that England beat Uruguay and gain a bonus point, they will go to 11 points.
Then, there are three remaining games: Wales versus Fiji, Australia versus England and Australia versus Wales.
We can look at each team separately to assess their possible outcomes.
Fiji and Uruguay
First things first, and Fiji and Uruguay have already lost two games and cannot make it out of the pool.
England
If Wales beat Fiji, then England must beat Australia to stay in. If they don’t they can only get to 13 points and – since Wales and Australia are already on 13 – neither team would lose in a tie-break qualification situation with England.
Then the winner of the Australia versus Wales game wins the group and the loser comes second.
If Wales beat Fiji and Australia, and England beat Australia, then Wales win the pool and England are second.
If Wales beat Fiji, England beat Australia and Australia beat Wales, then it becomes quite interesting.
England, Wales and Australia are on a minimum of 15, 13 and 13 points respectively. Bonus points then become crucial. England would be on 15-16, Australia on 13-16 and Wales on 13-16.
5.If Wales lose or draw to Fiji and England beat Australia, then England would go out if Wales beat Australia, but England would have a chances, depending on bonus points, if Australia beat Wales.
Wales
Regardless of the Wales versus Australia game, if Wales beat Fiji with a bonus point, then they are almost certainly through on 14. If England beat Australia (to 15 or 16 pts) then Australia beat Wales 5-0 (to 14 pts), Wales go out.
Regardless of the Wales versus Australia game, if Wales beat Fiji with 4 points, then they go through on 13 points if Australia beat England and England don’t get two bonus points from Australia.
If Wales beat Fiji with 4 bonus points and Australia beat England, then Wales go through.
If Wales beat Fiji with 4 bonus points and England beat Australia and Wales can get more bonus points in their two games, then they go through even if they lose to Australia.
If Wales lose to Fiji and Australia, then they can still go through with two or more bonus points and Australia beat England and receive bonus points.
Australia
If Wales beat Fiji, and Australia beat England, then the winner of the Australia versus Wales game wins the group and the loser comes second.
If Wales beat Fiji and Australia, and England beat Australia, then Wales win the Pool and England are second.
If Wales beat Fiji, England beat Australia and Australia beat Wales then it again becomes interesting. England, Wales and Australia are on a minimum of 15,13 and 13 points respectively.
Bonus points then become crucial. England would be on 15-16, Australia on 13-16 and Wales on 13-16 pts.
If Wales lose or draw to Fiji, England beat Australia and Wales beat Australia, then Australia go out.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
In 15 minutes, Tim Ryan didn’t just put a smile on Joe Schmidt’s face, he announced himself to the Australian public by scoring a…
Written off ahead of the weekend in several quarters, the Crusaders have responded with full vengeance after smashing the fourth-placed Rebels 39-0 in an…
Ned Hanigan is one of the in-form forwards in Australian rugby who looks set to finally turn promise into quality on the international stage,…
As calls grow for the entire Rugby Australia board to be overthrown, new chairman Daniel Herbert described the agitators behind the movement as hypocrites…
Three things in the world of rugby have caught my eye this week, and got me thinking very hard about the way forward, and…
Amid a week of soul-searching for Stephen Larkham’s men, the Brumbies have received a massive boost ahead of Saturday’s home clash against the ladder-leading…
