It may seem premature to suggest a team’s season may be over after Round 1, but the tantalising clash between Hawthorn and Geelong shapes as a make or break proposition for the Cats’ season.
Before you dismiss this as hyperbole, cast your mind back to Easter Monday last season.
Hawthorn embarrassed Geelong by 62 points. The following week, Fremantle easily accounted for them at Simmonds Stadium winning by 44 points. The Cats found themselves languishing at the bottom of the ladder with a measly percentage of 53.3.
Geelong found the rest of the season tough, missing the finals for the first time since 2006, finishing tenth with 11 wins. Journalists and pundits alike heralded the end of one of the most successful eras in modern football.
The truth is that the era has been over a long time. Since winning the premiership in 2011, Chris Scott’s men have won just one final from six, a statistic that must trouble the coach.
In 2012, trying to defend their premiership after a rather lacklustre home-and-away season, finishing fifth, the Cats were knocked out by Fremantle on the MCG.
In 2013, Fremantle again dismantled them in a historical final at Simmonds Stadium before they managed to hobble across the line against an inexperienced Port Adelaide outfit the following week.
In the preliminary final, they squandered a 20-point lead at three-quarter time against their arch nemesis, Hawthorn. 2014 saw them knocked out in straight sets after another embarrassing loss to Hawthorn in the qualifying final, and a surprising loss to North Melbourne the following week.
The era was well and truly over after 2012.
The Geelong hierarchy was well aware of its predicament. They knew it had an ageing list and that a transition was required. There was no clearer sign of this than the extension to Scott’s contract to 2015 after winning the premiership in his first year.
Whether it was a board directive, driven by the coaching panel, or enunciated by Scott himself, post 2011 the mantra was clear: play the kids, stagger the champions and re-build, creating the morale boosting illusion of remaining competitive. After all, if you tell yourself that you are competitive, hell, you might well be. And for the most part, they have been.
But they have also piled games of experience into Josh Caddy, Steven Motlop, Mitch Duncan, Cameron Guthrie, Jordan Murdoch, Jed Bews, Darcy Lang and Jake Kolodjashnij. These players have drastically improved with more than half being automatic selections in Geelong’s best 22.
Jackson Thurlow will be sorely missed as he gave the backline something different – youth and the ability to play on the dangerous small forwards, something the Cats have struggled with even during their dominance. The Cats also bled two highly impressive youngsters last year in Nakia Cockatoo and Cory Gregson, both whom will be competing for a spot in the side.
No player typifies the rebuild of Geelong more than their 2015 best and fairest, Mark Blicavs. The prospect of a Blicavs, Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood in the centre square will have Geelong supporters salivating.
But those same fans will be hoping for a bit of luck in the ruck department with Rhys Stanley, Nathan Vardy and Mitch Clark all carrying injury-riddled pasts, leaving potentially a lot to the former Gold Coast Sun Zac Smith, who also has had injury problems.
The defence is also getting old, led by Corey Enright, Andrew Mackie and Tom Lonergan, who are all over 30, while Harry Taylor turns 30 in June. For this reason, Jake Kolodjashnij was a welcomed addition last year. Former Blue Lachie Henderson is keen to re-establish himself at AFL level and will be quickly ushered into the line-up.
No one can suggest Geelong are a legitimate premiership threat right now. But at the same time, the Cats are difficult read. Brian Cook has been quoted as saying the off-season moves had been planned for a long time, in a bid to rejuvenate the club.
Whether this means an attempt at a premiership or merely finishing in the top eight is unclear, but one would suspect both are the aim. It may take time for the chemistry to develop, but time is a rare commodity in an AFL season.
Questions also surround the coach. To many Geelong supporters, the jury is still deliberating on the question ‘is Chris Scott a good coach?’. The best predictor to all these questions will come on Easter Monday’s acid test against the three-time reigning premiers.
Simply put, it’s a pass or fail proposition.
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