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Hello Roarers and welcome to another week of AFL expert tips! Round 6 is shaping up to be a quality week of football with a number of intriguing contests on the slate.
The match of the week no doubt will be the top-of-the-table clash between North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs. How great is it to see two of the smaller teams in the league not only matched up on a Friday night, but also thriving at the top of the competition?
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Picking a winner in this one is pretty tough – we’ve got the league’s most points scored in North Melbourne coming up against the league’s least points conceded in the Bulldogs, and it should make for a thrilling contest.
The Bulldogs have injuries to some important players and while they’ve dealt with that pretty well in the past two weeks they’ve done so against relatively poor opposition, and North will put a bit more pressure on them than Carlton and Brisbane have. I’m tipping North to get up, but I’m a mad Roos fan and I won’t lie, that factors in a bit.
Melbourne and St Kilda looks like a fascinating contest on Saturday afternoon as two of the league’s rebuilders will go head to head and look to claim a win. Could definitely go either way this one, but I reckon the Dees have been playing better footy and will take the win here.
Later that day the Giants and the Hawks will meet at Spotless Stadium in a match that is really tempting to tip the upset in. The Hawks have escaped with wins in their last three matches but the Giants are primed to give them a run for their money after some good form in recent weeks and with Jeremy Cameron back in the fold.
If I wasn’t trailing the pack by two tips I’d consider taking a risk and picking the Giants here, but just to play it safe I’m going to back in the Hawks to add another win to their ledger.
Then on Saturday night Richmond and Port Adelaide will meet in a match between two of the most disappointing sides this season. One of them will get a vital win here that could be a spark for a surge back into form – the other one will be close to considering it season over.
The absence of Alex Rance has me tipping Port to get up and win, he is the glue that holds the Richmond backline together and there’s not really an obvious candidate to step up and lead the defence in his absence.
The rest of this week’s matches look fairly straightforward – Adelaide should make short work of Fremantle, and ditto Geelong against Gold Coast, with the outsiders in those matches having both injury and poor form to contend with. Sydney should comfortably beat Brisbane.
Carlton against Essendon and West Coast against Collingwood are matches where you should be able to tip the home team with confidence, though there is probably more of a chance of an upset in one of these than there is in the three mentioned above – still pretty low though.
Regular readers will be aware that I’ve managed to screw up my Lock of the Week two weeks in a row now, incorrectly tipping Gold Coast over Brisbane, and Fremantle over Carlton. If I don’t get it this week it might need a new gimmick! At any rate, this week I’ll be locking in the Crows to send the Dockers to 0-6.
Michael di Fabrizio
Friday night is the biggest game of the round and all is as it should be. North Melbourne are up and about, on top of the ladder. The Western Bulldogs are looking pretty strong in their own right, but their injury-a-week trajectory is cause for concern.
I’m sticking with the Dogs, which should come as no surprise to regular followers of this column. I’m yet to be convinced on North, given their soft draw to date and how little they’ve done with it. They rank fifth for percentage.
The Dogs, meanwhile, have genuinely put teams away. As in, they buried Fremantle. They buried St Kilda. They gave Carlton and Brisbane no chance. And when they did go up against a top team — Hawthorn — they went toe-to-toe.
North went up against a good team in Adelaide and won by 10, that’s true. But you weigh it all up, the Dogs appear the stronger team.
The rest of my tips are probably fairly standard. Is there an upset in the mix? I was tempted to have a look at St Kilda against Melbourne, but the Dees are starting to become slightly risky to tip against. Who knew?
GWS and Hawthorn should be a good game, but “Hawthorn by 3” seems like a done-deal at this point.
BJ Conkey
The Kangaroos’ unbeaten run will be tested by the Bulldogs, and despite the losses of Bob Murphy and Jason Johannisen I back their defence to limit North’s scoring in the match of the round.
On Saturday there’s a big chance for the Demons to win three games in a row for the first time in six years. Max Gawn has been amazing in the ruck and he’ll go a long way to deciding Melbourne’s fate.
These two teams had a tight fixture at the same ground last year, and I’m expecting another close one with Melbourne to have enough in the tank.
The match between the Tigers and the Power could simply come down to who makes the fewest mistakes, given the lack of confidence of both teams. Both have conceded 550 points in five rounds so expect a shoot-out at the ‘G if the conditions are fine.
With Alex Rance out through suspension, I’m backing Jack Riewoldt and Dustin Martin to both step up to the plate.
| Round 5 | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| WB v NTM | WB | WB | NTM | WB |
| MEL v STK | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| ADL v FRE | ADL | ADL | ADL | ADL |
| GWS v HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW |
| RIC v PA | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC |
| GEE v GCS | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| BL v SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| CAR v ESS | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| WCE v COL | WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE |
| Last round | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| Total | 34 | 31 | 31 | 33 |
Crowd tipping has closed for Round 6. Join us again next week for more tipping!